Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[Northernohio]

^{looks like that snow from the east is circling back to the western lakeshore area.....}

[NEOH]

About 6 inches here. Far from blizzard conditions. We finally had heavy snow from around 2:30-4pm... but that was about it. Sitting in a dry slot now. Not looking for much more other than an inch or two. I'm surprised to see some of the forecasts calling for 4-8, or even 3-5 more. Maybe it will happen, but I'm doubtful at this point.

[Northernohio]

getting hammered on the west side here again. I would venture to guess we have easily over 6 inches....guessing our storm total ends up at 8-9.

[Trent]

About 6 inches here. Far from blizzard conditions. We finally had heavy snow from around 2:30-4pm... but that was about it. Sitting in a dry slot now. Not looking for much more other than an inch or two. I'm surprised to see some of the forecasts calling for 4-8, or even 3-5 more. Maybe it will happen, but I'm doubtful at this point.

Just measured 6". Radar isn't too promising. Looking at radar no one is getting over 2" more and most will get a half inch.

If it wasn't for the blizzard warning being issued the forecast would have been ok. Still it boggles my mind. Blizzard warnings here are extremely rare. How did this garden variety snowstorm for the Cleveland area get a blizzard warning. Were the winds really forecasted to be over 35 mph?

People were expecting a blizzard. Whipping snow, blinding winds, and whiteouts. Instead we got ... typical winter in Cleveland.

[NEOH]

Just measured 6". Radar isn't too promising. Looking at radar no one is getting over 2" more and most will get a half inch.

If it wasn't for the blizzard warning being issued the forecast would have been ok. Still it boggles my mind. Blizzard warnings here are extremely rare. How did this garden variety snowstorm for the Cleveland area get a blizzard warning. Were the winds really forecasted to be over 35 mph?

People were expecting a blizzard. Whipping snow, blinding winds, and whiteouts. Instead we got ... typical winter in Cleveland.

I think one of the problems with accums is the wind direction. Winds have been just north of east IMBY all day... not a great wind direction for pulling moisture off of the lake. Maybe we'll see a green blob flare up once wind turn NE and Northerly overnight. I'm guessing 2 inches max... which would put us at the low end of the forecast.

As you said, seems like a garden variety storm. Winds are weak at best. I think we get jaded living in a LES area.

[Trent]

I think one of the problems with accums is the wind direction. Winds have been just north of east IMBY all day... not a great wind direction for pulling moisture off of the lake. Maybe we'll see a green blob flare up once wind turn NE and Northerly overnight. I'm guessing 2 inches max... which would put us at the low end of the forecast.

As you said, seems like a garden variety storm. Winds are weak at best. I think we get jaded living in a LES area.

It's interesting how that TROWAL in Michigan really took off.

Our accums were on the low side of things because we never got the snowfall rates that places like Indy had this morning. Had we had 2" per hour rates from 2-5pm, we'd have an extra 3 or 4 inches and would have come in line with the modeled QPF. I'm sure CLE and the other airports will have to do snow water equivalents to adjust for total precip as I can guarantee that we've had more than 0.44" as shown on the hourly obs. That's extremely low. Even the Euro for almost 12 straight runs never had us under .75" and kept us at over an inch up until the last run before it started.

[OHweather]

About 6" here. I guess I don't want to b!tch too much about a 5-9" snowstorm, but wow.

Just about every model was overdone on QPF. In a lot of cases well overdone. Even when taking the low end of the QPF numbers with slight adjustment upwards my forecast was decently overdone. I'd give it a C and that may be generous.

I guess unless we have a strong low pressure over Pittsburgh we just aren't going to sustain anything more than 1" per hour snow rates in a synoptic snow situation. Even though every model was signaling that there would see outstanding lift across the area from the low levels up to the upper levels this afternoon, we still couldn't manage more than garden variety heavy snow.

A decent little storm but oh, what could've been.

And is it me or did the radar presentation seem overblown for the snow rates that were realized?

Ok, mini meltdown over.

[Trent]

About 6" here. I guess I don't want to b!tch too much about a 5-9" snowstorm, but wow.

Just about every model was overdone on QPF. In a lot of cases well overdone. Even when taking the low end of the QPF numbers with slight adjustment upwards my forecast was decently overdone. I'd give it a C and that may be generous.

I guess unless we have a strong low pressure over Pittsburgh we just aren't going to sustain anything more than 1" per hour snow rates in a synoptic snow situation. Even though every model was signaling that there would be outstanding lift across the area from the low levels up to the upper levels this afternoon, we still couldn't manage more than garden variety heavy snow.

A decent little storm but oh, what could've been.

And is it me or did the radar presentation seem overblown for the snow rates that were realized?

Ok, mini meltdown over.

Yep. I thought we were golden after what happened in Indianapolis. Our radar presentation looked identical. But every time I looked at the radar and then looked out the window it was never anything more than your typical "snow".

My instinct all along said that there was no way anyone in Ohio was going to get sustained 2"+ per hour rates, and that proved true. A 6-10" call technically will come out ok as it appears to be a widespread 6", but the blizzard warnings exacerbated the hype and created a mini paranoia that will surely be water cooler talk for a few days.

That constant stripe of (at least) 1.25" QPF from Wooster to Akron to Youngstown and Ashtabula that every model had came no where close to even half.

I think the lesson learned from this was, never issue blizzard warnings unless you've got full model support. The visibilities were worse last Friday at times than downtown today.

Also did anyone else get a weird text message on their phone? I was sitting at home and heard this bizarre emergency alert noise that you hear on TV coming from my phone. I'd never heard it before. On my screen was this official emergency box outlined in red that said "Blizzard Warning until 9pm, please stay indoors. National Weather Service" I've never signed up for text alerts and my mobile phone is actually an out of state number. I just found it crazy that that feature was used for this event and had no idea that emergency departments had the capability to send these types of alerts to people in certain areas.

[OHweather]

Yep. I thought we were golden after what happened in Indianapolis. Our radar presentation looked identical. But every time I looked at the radar and then looked out the window it was never anything more than your typical "snow".

My instinct all along said that there was no way anyone in Ohio was going to get sustained 2"+ per hour rates, and that proved true. A 6-10" call technically will come out ok as it appears to be a widespread 6", but the blizzard warnings exacerbated the hype and created a mini paranoia that will surely be water cooler talk for a few days.

That constant stripe of (at least) 1.25" QPF from Wooster to Akron to Youngstown and Ashtabula that every model had came no where close to even half.

I think the lesson learned from this was, never issue blizzard warnings unless you've got full model support. The visibilities were worse last Friday at times than downtown today.

Also did anyone else get a weird text message on their phone? I was sitting at home and heard this bizarre emergency alert noise that you hear on TV coming from my phone. I'd never heard it before. On my screen was this official emergency box outlined in red that said "Blizzard Warning until 9pm, please stay indoors. National Weather Service" I've never signed up for text alerts and my mobile phone is actually an out of state number. I just found it crazy that that feature was used for this event and had no idea that emergency departments had the capability to send these types of alerts to people in certain areas.

My friend who was in Cuyahoga County when the warning was issued but lives in Portage County got that alert. My official address is in Solon and I have a 440 number but didn't get the alert. I was surprised when I heard about that.

I mean, we were in the area of best forecasted dynamics and the dynamics looked to be good as we were expected to be in the deform zone for several hours on the nose of a strong LLJ fueled by Atlantic and Gulf moisture. We've seen heavier synoptic snow rates before than what we saw today and I would have thought that we would have seen better rates today. Guess I should have stuck with my original 6-10" call before trying to "hit a homerun" (even though most modeling supported my forecast amounts and some supported more).

My thinking is the low transferred a little later than expected and peaked out before the snow really made it into our area allowing the dry slotting to make it farther north than expected and also causing the snow to weaken a little. Although Erie is getting pounded right now which may shoot down that theory.

[Trent]

Wow. Only 4.7" at CLE. That seems a bit lowball. The magic number virtually everywhere in northern Ohio has been 6" give or take a half inch or so. So that really was less than a half inch of QPF there, with a few 0.75" lollipops in the favored Geauga/Portage areas.

The PNS issued isn't half bad considering it's the first major synoptic storm in 2 years. However, I was expecting almost every number on that report to be nearly double. If we had had 35mph winds for 3 hours it might have made this feel more like a real storm. But hey, it's a very picturesque snow that made measuring easy.

[Chinook]

It turned out to be around 6" here. It was light snow after 5:00PM, and now it certainly looks to be moving out of the area. Lake effect snow: I am seeing some model info saying the 850mb wind direction will be north tomorrow with much of the 850-700mb temperature profile around -9C. I'd like to see -11C to -15C in the clouds to crank up the instability and allow for the bergeron process. So I just don't know if this will be signficant.

[OHweather]

It turned out to be around 6" here. It was light snow after 5:00PM, and now it certainly looks to be moving out of the area. Lake effect snow: I am seeing some model info saying the 850mb wind direction will be north tomorrow with much of the 850-700mb temperature profile around -9C. I'd like to see -11C to -15C in the clouds to crank up the instability and allow for the bergeron process. So I just don't know if this will be signficant.

Ya, the lake effect snow showers should be fairly light. Maybe a local 1-2" accumulation in the Snowbelt tonight into tomorrow.

As an aside, evidently Ashtabula County has been renamed, per the latest AFD update:

SURFACE LOW HAS DONE A QUICK CENTER JUMP THIS EVENING FROM WV TO

DELAWARE. ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION AND

THE RADAR MOSAIC ECHO COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED STEADILY THIS

EVENING. WILL DROP ALL HEADLINES EXCEPT FOR THE EATABLE AND ERIE

LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE WILL CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR THE COMBINATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER WINDS WHICH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. INLAND NORTHWEST

PA MAY STILL RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN

REMOVED EXCEPT IN THE LAKESHORE OF ERIE AND EATABLE.

[Trent]

Ya, the lake effect snow showers should be fairly light. Maybe a local 1-2" accumulation in the Snowbelt tonight into tomorrow.

As an aside, evidently Ashtabula County has been renamed, per the latest AFD update:

SURFACE LOW HAS DONE A QUICK CENTER JUMP THIS EVENING FROM WV TO

DELAWARE. ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION AND

THE RADAR MOSAIC ECHO COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED STEADILY THIS

EVENING. WILL DROP ALL HEADLINES EXCEPT FOR THE EATABLE AND ERIE

LAKESHORE COUNTIES WHERE WILL CONTINUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

FOR THE COMBINATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER WINDS WHICH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. INLAND NORTHWEST

PA MAY STILL RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW HAS BEEN

REMOVED EXCEPT IN THE LAKESHORE OF ERIE AND EATABLE.

Eatable is under a winter storm warning for yellow snow. Caution is advised.

We've had 3 strikes with all of our advisories and warnings this winter. Not off to a good start. Granted the last one did prove ok for the higher elevation communities, there was no mention in the zones or warning text of lesser amounts (1-3") for areas of western Cuyahoga and lakeshore areas.

Think of all the flights that were cancelled unnecessarily from Hopkins today. I bet of the 100s cancelled, more than half could have safely took off/landed. Hopkins can handle snow, especially 4.7" over an 8 hour period.

Even the entire downtown dismissal process today was a joke. The mayor urged companies to let people leave at 1 and most government buildings shut down at the same time. This all stems from the December 2010 lake effect band incident.

Just wait until we actually have our next 12-15" area wide synoptic snowstorm.

[OHweather]

Eatable is under a winter storm warning for yellow snow. Caution is advised.

We've had 3 strikes with all of our advisories and warnings this winter. Not off to a good start. Granted the last one did prove ok for the higher elevation communities, there was no mention in the zones or warning text of lesser amounts (1-3") for areas of western Cuyahoga and lakeshore areas.

Think of all the flights that were cancelled unnecessarily from Hopkins today. I bet of the 100s cancelled, more than half could have safely took off/landed. Hopkins can handle snow, especially 4.7" over an 8 hour period.

Even the entire downtown dismissal process today was a joke. The mayor urged companies to let people leave at 1 and most government buildings shut down at the same time. This all stems from the December 2010 lake effect band incident.

Just wait until we actually have our next 12-15" area wide synoptic snowstorm.

The first advisory was a joke. Cuyahoga should have never been included in that advisory and Geauga/Ashtabula were questionable as well.

I won't chastise them for last week's warning...given the timing and marginal warning amounts away from the lake that can slide...although the western and lake shore portions of the county didn't receive warning criteria snowfall...as always.

A winter storm warning was justified but not the blizzard headlines as it turned out today. And I have a feeling that CLE total might be a bit low. Then again YNG's 9 some inches is probably high.

For the most part the snow was manageable at Hopkins. There may have been times when it was too heavy but in general it was just moderate snow.

Downtown is going to do that every time there is a WSW or Blizzard Warning in effect after that snow band incident

And we may be waiting a while for that big foot plus synoptic storm the way things seem to want to go.

[Trent]

The first advisory was a joke. Cuyahoga should have never been included in that advisory and Geauga/Ashtabula were questionable as well.

I won't chastise them for last week's warning...given the timing and marginal warning amounts away from the lake that can slide...although the western and lake shore portions of the county didn't receive warning criteria snowfall...as always.

A winter storm warning was justified but not the blizzard headlines as it turned out today. And I have a feeling that CLE total might be a bit low. Then again YNG's 9 some inches is probably high.

For the most part the snow was manageable at Hopkins. There may have been times when it was too heavy but in general it was just moderate snow.

Downtown is going to do that every time there is a WSW or Blizzard Warning in effect after that snow band incident

And we may be waiting a while for that big foot plus synoptic storm the way things seem to want to go.

Yeah. I think that's the kicker with this storm. There was marginal evidence that blizzard criteria was going to be met. I think the snowfall forecast was fine and I wouldn't chastise anyone for calling for 8-12" and 10-14" for interior regions. All model guidance was within this range. You would have had to search high and low for a model to support 0.3 to 0.6" QPF with similar evolution of the low pressure system tracking up the OV and then transferring to the coast. Plain and simple, we never achieved crazy snowfall rates in the 2-5pm time frame. That's what shaved off 3-7" of snow for most folks. Otherwise everything else went according to the models.

My theory is that the blizzard warnings probably came from a very energetic young met working a holiday shift while the seasoned meteorologists had the holidays off. The individual pulled the trigger down south and like magic the neighboring offices tossed them up as well to coordinate and the next thing you know you have blizzard warnings stretching from Oklahoma to Ohio.

[OHweather]

Yeah. I think that's the kicker with this storm. There was marginal evidence that blizzard criteria was going to be met. I think the snowfall forecast was fine and I wouldn't chastise anyone for calling for 8-12" and 10-14" for interior regions. All model guidance was within this range. You would have had to search high and low for a model to support 0.3 to 0.6" QPF with similar evolution of the low pressure system tracking up the OV and then transferring to the coast. Plain and simple, we never achieved crazy snowfall rates in the 2-5pm time frame. That's what shaved off 3-7" of snow for most folks. Otherwise everything else went according to the models.

My theory is that the blizzard warnings probably came from a very energetic young met working a holiday shift while the seasoned meteorologists had the holidays off. The individual pulled the trigger down south and like magic the neighboring offices tossed them up as well to coordinate and the next thing you know you have blizzard warnings stretching from Oklahoma to Ohio.

The met who pulled the trigger on the blizzard warnings for the CLE CWA has been there for a few years...which is when I started taking note of who signed the AFD's and bottom of warnings. He usually seems slightly aggressive but not terribly so. If the insane snowfall rates worked out I probably wouldn't be questioning the blizzard warnings even if the winds were a bit below criteria.

The OK blizzard warnings were marginal at best although they likely verified in some areas in AR/SE MO/IL/IN.

[FL510]

WFO CLE seems to have more than their fair share of busted forecasts. Their AFDs are generally poor and when they do go against model consensus it tends to not be justified.

In retrospect, the primary low fizzled well ahead of the model consensus. The coastal low took over quickly and the Midwest wind & precip went away with it's development.

[OHweather]

WFO CLE seems to have more than their fair share of busted forecasts. Their AFDs are generally poor and when they do go against model consensus it tends to not be justified.

In retrospect, the primary low fizzled well ahead of the model consensus. The coastal low took over quickly and the Midwest wind & precip went away with it's development.

Yeah, I won't put this all on CLE. I find it interesting however that MI overperformed and in a lot of cases out performed the CLE area. That surprised me.

I took a video of a long radar loop and am uploading it to Youtube, just because it's really impressive, and is shocking that we only got around half a foot of snow out of it.

Either way, lake enhanced snow miracle unfolding right now. Solid sn- at my house, visibility has cratered to like 5 miles:

[Trent]

I picked up a dusting overnight, which brings the storm total to 6.6" here.

Looking at the PNS I'm quite surprised at the low totals for Medina, Brunswick, Cuyahoga Falls, and Tallmadge. Northern Medina extending into Central Summit County really got burned with just 2-4" ... ouch.

[NEOH]

Storm total of 7.2" IMBY. Seemed like a little more out in Chagrin. I thought the snow would blossom as the winds turned northerly last night but that didn't happen. Too bad CLE doesn't do a "what what wrong" in their AFD.

We have a nice base of snow on ground, so even though the higher totals didn't verify it looks like winter out there.

I see CLE reported 4.7"... that's pretty funny.

[Trent]

Storm total of 7.2" IMBY. Seemed like a little more out in Chagrin. I thought the snow would blossom as the winds turned northerly last night but that didn't happen. Too bad CLE doesn't do a "what what wrong" in their AFD.

We have a nice base of snow on ground, so even though the higher totals didn't verify it looks like winter out there.

I see CLE reported 4.7"... that's pretty funny.

CLE probably has 5.6" after the overnight dusting. I'm not surprised they came in as the low spot. The radar returns were non existent over them at 5pm yesterday while the rest of the county had moderate snow.

I have a flight out of CLE tomorrow. Hopefully flight operations are normal by then as today there will be a lot of residual delays in repositioning planes where they need to be. Luckily Vermont looks a lot snowier than here!

[NEOH]

CLE probably has 5.6" after the overnight dusting. I'm not surprised they came in as the low spot. The radar returns were non existent over them at 5pm yesterday while the rest of the county had moderate snow.

I have a flight out of CLE tomorrow. Hopefully flight operations are normal by then as today there will be a lot of residual delays in repositioning planes where they need to be. Luckily Vermont looks a lot snowier than here!

Enjoy Vermont. Your flight should be fine by tomorrow. Looks like you will be there right in time for the Noreaster.

If the weekend storm plays out like this last storm OH will be sitting pretty in the trowal.

[Chinook]

Perhaps you guys won't like this picture:

[dta1984]

Looks like we have a few chances for some lighter snow coming up. Hopefully it won't be too boring.

[Trent]

Perhaps you guys won't like this picture:

Nice snowfall. And regarding the license plate holder ... I actually did my undergrad at U of M.

[NEOH]

Perhaps you guys won't like this picture:

Pic from repo lot?

[NEOH]

Nice snowfall. And regarding the license plate holder ... I actually did my undergrad at U of M.

That's ok... You seem like an ok guy.

[OHweather]

There's good consensus on a weak wave of low pressure tracking along the Ohio river to near Pittsburgh Friday night into Saturday before a coastal low takes over. The southern low pressure that will eventually turn into a coastal will limit moisture return into the cold sector and the northern low pressure will be relatively weak, but there is good consensus on northern Ohio being in the northern portions of a swath of light to moderate snow tomorrow night into Saturday.

The Euro shows a nice shot of PVA over northern Ohio late Friday night into Saturday with modest height falls with high low-mid level RH's as the low tracks to near Pittsburgh. The Euro ensembles generally agree with this low track. The NAM is also in agreement and shows nice moderate upward motion in the middle levels during this timeframe:

Given this will be a quick hitter with relatively little moisture to work with along with modest dynamics, I don't see reason to go with more than 2-3" of snow with this system east of I-77 and 1-2" west of there.

Lake effect snow Saturday evening into Sunday should be light to moderate in nature as a weak shortwave rotates through the western edge of the northeastern US trough and glances our area with some moisture:

With 850mb temps falling to -10 to -11C Saturday night we should have conditional lake induced instability to work with with the flow backing from WNW Saturday evening to more NW by Sunday morning.

An early look at the NAM for Saturday evening shows inversion heights of 8-9k feet with high relative humidities in the mixed layer. This supports lake effect snow showers in the primary Snowbelt and as well as Cuyahoga County and far northern Summit/Portage Counties with enough of a northerly component to the flow Saturday afternoon before ridging moves in and lowers inversions and dries the lower-mid levels Sunday morning. This could be a situation where there is a quick burst of snow dropping a half inch to an inch on a lot of areas as the shortwave moves through with lake effect continuing in the Snowbelt where 2-4" totals are possible.

All and all Friday night through Sunday morning will be "snowy" but it doesn't look like we'll see any periods of excessively heavy snow, but just a couple periods of light to moderate snow that add up a little, especially in the Snowbelt.

[NEOH]

There's good consensus on a weak wave of low pressure tracking along the Ohio river to near Pittsburgh Friday night into Saturday before a coastal low takes over. The southern low pressure that will eventually turn into a coastal will limit moisture return into the cold sector and the northern low pressure will be relatively weak, but there is good consensus on northern Ohio being in the northern portions of a swath of light to moderate snow tomorrow night into Saturday.

The Euro shows a nice shot of PVA over northern Ohio late Friday night into Saturday with modest height falls with high low-mid level RH's as the low tracks to near Pittsburgh. The Euro ensembles generally agree with this low track. The NAM is also in agreement and shows nice moderate upward motion in the middle levels during this timeframe:

Given this will be a quick hitter with relatively little moisture to work with along with modest dynamics, I don't see reason to go with more than 2-3" of snow with this system east of I-77 and 1-2" west of there.

Lake effect snow Saturday evening into Sunday should be light to moderate in nature as a weak shortwave rotates through the western edge of the northeastern US trough and glances our area with some moisture:

With 850mb temps falling to -10 to -11C Saturday night we should have conditional lake induced instability to work with with the flow backing from WNW Saturday evening to more NW by Sunday morning.

An early look at the NAM for Saturday evening shows inversion heights of 8-9k feet with high relative humidities in the mixed layer. This supports lake effect snow showers in the primary Snowbelt and as well as Cuyahoga County and far northern Summit/Portage Counties with enough of a northerly component to the flow Saturday afternoon before ridging moves in and lowers inversions and dries the lower-mid levels Sunday morning. This could be a situation where there is a quick burst of snow dropping a half inch to an inch on a lot of areas as the shortwave moves through with lake effect continuing in the Snowbelt where 2-4" totals are possible.

All and all Friday night through Sunday morning will be "snowy" but it doesn't look like we'll see any periods of excessively heavy snow, but just a couple periods of light to moderate snow that add up a little, especially in the Snowbelt.

I'll take a nickel and dime snowfall pattern rather than swinging for the fences with one big storm. Consistent snows are great... and they can add up.

One thing we have been missing is a true LES event. Maybe we'll see a moderate, but short lived event over the weekend.

[Northernohio]

Ya Chinook! Go Blue!!!!!