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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread


Trent

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Wow. Hasn't the model been pretty accurate?

Like most of the hi-res models it tends to run a little high with QPF amounts however these models do a good job of showing potential if some of the heavier banding works out. I'd generally put the WRF's at the higher end of the forecast totals.

Full side flakes lightly making to the ground in NE Summit now. Looks like I'll see the snow pick up considerably over the next half hour or so here. This is all spreading north to all you Cuyahoga County posters pretty quickly now.

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Snow just started in cuyahoga county. Radar looks nice to the south. Is the snow an hour or two late? I was expecting 9 or 10am. No complaints as flakes are finally flying.

NAM had first flakes at 11am with accums beginning noon to 1pm. Things are on track.

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NAM had first flakes at 11am with accums beginning noon to 1pm. Things are on track.

Thanks, Right on schedule.

Just noticed this update from CLE. Looks like the central lakeshore on east will be in the pivot area. T'snow later on?

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ROARING NORTH. HAVE HAD A REPORT OF A LITTLE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MOUNT VERNON. NEW PHILADELPHIA AND GREATER PIT ARE MIXED AT 14Z. I THINK IT IS INEVITABLE THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN DROPS AND SLEET PELLETS MIX IN FROM MOUNT VERNON TO CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN. THE PIVOT POINT SHOULD SET UP JUST NORTH OF THERE...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO...SO THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE WARM LAYER WILL BE CUT OFF. PLACES THAT GET MIXED

PRECIPITATION WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION AND HAVE LESS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR A WHILE BUT

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW

BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

CANNOT RULE OUT A FLASH OF LIGHTNING BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE

FORECAST GIVEN ALL ELSE THAT IS GOING ON.

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Thanks, Right on schedule.

Just noticed this update from CLE. Looks like the central lakeshore on east will be in the pivot area. T'snow later on?

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ROARING NORTH. HAVE HAD A REPORT OF A LITTLE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MOUNT VERNON. NEW PHILADELPHIA AND GREATER PIT ARE MIXED AT 14Z. I THINK IT IS INEVITABLE THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN DROPS AND SLEET PELLETS MIX IN FROM MOUNT VERNON TO CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN. THE PIVOT POINT SHOULD SET UP JUST NORTH OF THERE...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO...SO THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE WARM LAYER WILL BE CUT OFF. PLACES THAT GET MIXED

PRECIPITATION WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION AND HAVE LESS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR A WHILE BUT

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW

BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

CANNOT RULE OUT A FLASH OF LIGHTNING BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE

FORECAST GIVEN ALL ELSE THAT IS GOING ON.

Nice. It continues to look like the Cleveland area will just get pounded and be in a near perfect spot. Thundersnow would be a bonus.

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Thanks, Right on schedule.

Just noticed this update from CLE. Looks like the central lakeshore on east will be in the pivot area. T'snow later on?

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS ROARING NORTH. HAVE HAD A REPORT OF A LITTLE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MOUNT VERNON. NEW PHILADELPHIA AND GREATER PIT ARE MIXED AT 14Z. I THINK IT IS INEVITABLE THAT SOME FREEZING RAIN DROPS AND SLEET PELLETS MIX IN FROM MOUNT VERNON TO CANTON AND YOUNGSTOWN. THE PIVOT POINT SHOULD SET UP JUST NORTH OF THERE...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO...SO THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF THE WARM LAYER WILL BE CUT OFF. PLACES THAT GET MIXED

PRECIPITATION WILL SEE SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF TOTAL SNOW

ACCUMULATION AND HAVE LESS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR A WHILE BUT

THE PRECIPITATION WILL GO BACK TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW

BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

CANNOT RULE OUT A FLASH OF LIGHTNING BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE

FORECAST GIVEN ALL ELSE THAT IS GOING ON.

If you told me two days ago that this would pivot in NWOH I would've called you completely crazy. Should be interesting to see what we end up with... local mets going 4-7" or so, CLE going with 5-11 here, 7-13" at FDY

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lol. you picked a good time to visit OH... geauga county nonetheless.

I was going to spend some days in Toledo. I only spent two days there. We all were going to have the get together on the 29th here in Geagua County. So I just drove over here last night. Actually we were going to be getting together here on the 23rd, but the other blizzard closed the road in Nebraska (on the 20th.) I left Colorado on the 22nd.

Picture of Des Moines Iowa on Dec. 23rd. Many cars and trucks were wrecked on I-80 in Iowa.

post-1182-0-34326500-1356544427_thumb.jp

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I think we'll end up on the very very low end of the forecast range. Both the NAM and GFS were advertising 2"+ per hour rates this afternoon that have never come to fruition. Three hours of snow at 2.3" per hour gets you almost 7" ... instead we are getting three hours of snow at 1" per hour. There goes 4 inches of snow off the forecast.

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I think we'll end up on the very very low end of the forecast range. Both the NAM and GFS were advertising 2"+ per hour rates this afternoon that have never come to fruition. Three hours of snow at 2.3" per hour gets you almost 7" ... instead we are getting three hours of snow at 1" per hour. There goes 4 inches of snow off the forecast.

After last year's crappy winter and the slow start this year, this event qualifies as a nice win in my book.

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After last year's crappy winter and the slow start this year, this event qualifies as a nice win in my book.

This was a nice event, the best in 2 years, but wow a Blizzard Warning? ouch.

The first winter weather advisory was a bust in November.

The winter storm warning last week was marginal at best. Especially since the zones didn't discriminate between coastal, secondary, and primary snowbelts.

This blizzard warning is not going to come to fruition. Yeah, it snowed hard for a brief period, but nothing close to meeting those wind and visibility requirements. Judging by the radar the snow is on a downward trend and CLE only has 4" so far. The 1-2" rates per hour never materialized.

I think it will be tough for CLE to squeeze a few more inches out of this. And wow was the model QPF way overdone. Take the model with the driest QPF for this area and we're not even at half that!

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Pictures from the Western Burbs.....Don't see us getting more than 8 or so inches.

Jeff Tanchak, IMO one of the better METs in Cleveland just said if the moisture gets going 4-8 more inches. I'm betting we have 5-6 inches here now very hard to tell with the blowing.

Radar starting to slowly fill back in. 4-8" more seems insane considering we've been under heavy returns since noon.

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