Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[NEOH]

Nice forecast. Hopefully we don't see any further se shifts. Watching this storm I forgot about tonights snow. Everything is pasted with white... Only an inche or so but everything is caked with snow.

[dta1984]

Lol i shouldn't have looked at the nam output for cleve. 1.7" all frozen it looks like. Yikes !! Too good to be true. Merry Christmas all !

[Trent]

We all know that the NAM QPF at these stages are always off the charts. I'd venture that the Euro will remain king and that 10" will probably be the peak outside of LES and enhancement areas.

It's quite comforting being in the NAM bullseye on the 00z though. This track has shades of March 2008 written on it too.

[NEOH]

Merry Christmas... Happy holidays to all. See you on wednesday when the snow is flying.

[Speedskater]

Once again, AJ Colby is going with this model!

But I think that the snow depths are in centimeters not inches.

(that jpg came out bigger than I had planned)

[OHweather]

Once again, AJ Colby is going with this model!

But i think that the snow depths are in centimeters not inches.

(that jpg came out bigger than I had planned)

If that's in centimeters that's a lot more reasonable...would be like 7-15" across the area, which is certainly ball park for this thing. Not sure why he would put numbers in cm on a snow forecast like that.

[Speedskater]

I think that he pushed the wrong button on the computer. Colby only works part-time week-ends & holidays at WJW, so he doesn't the long hours of hands-on experience that the endless week-day news segments would provide.

[OHweather]

That's too bad because I generally like AJ. Oh well.

CLE pulled the trigger on a blizzard warning for the lake shore counties and some of the more wide open counties west of Cleveland. I'm kind of surprised. I think the visibility requirement shouldn't be a problem.

Given the wind gusts will be very borderline and the office's history of being very stingy with blizzard warnings in the past (which I agree with for the most part) I'm a bit surprised they pulled the trigger.

[AppsRunner]

That's too bad because I generally like AJ. Oh well.

CLE pulled the trigger on a blizzard warning for the lake shore counties and some of the more wide open counties west of Cleveland. I'm kind of surprised. I think the visibility requirement shouldn't be a problem.

Given the wind gusts will be very borderline and the office's history of being very stingy with blizzard warnings in the past (which I agree with for the most part) I'm a bit surprised they pulled the trigger.

They've been rather bullish this entire storm... very aggressive this far west (which may bust hard or verify well) and they pulled blizzard warnings out for the first time in quite a while for Findlay. Plenty of room for heartbreak back here, but you guys in the north central area seem to be locked in pretty well. Enjoy your storm guys

[OHweather]

They've been rather bullish this entire storm... very aggressive this far west (which may bust hard or verify well) and they pulled blizzard warnings out for the first time in quite a while for Findlay. Plenty of room for heartbreak back here, but you guys in the north central area seem to be locked in pretty well. Enjoy your storm guys

I agree. The 18z NAM came back NW a tad. GFS coming out now. RAP is NW at the end of its run but it always is.

Just for future review, the rare Cleveland, OH blizzard warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

241 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

.HEAVY SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO CREATE

SEVERE WINTER WEATHER.

OHZ007>011-017>019-027-028-036-260345-

/O.CAN.KCLE.WS.W.0005.121226T1200Z-121227T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KCLE.BZ.W.0001.121226T1200Z-121227T1200Z/

OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-

WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-MARION-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORT CLINTON...FREMONT...SANDUSKY...

LORAIN...CLEVELAND...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...NORWALK...

UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY...BUCYRUS...MARION

241 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2012

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST

THURSDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST

THURSDAY. THIS IN AN UPGRADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING WHICH WAS

PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY

MORNING. HEAVY SNOW AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH WILL CREATE

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST

TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL

CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. SOME ROADS MAY BE

IMPASSIBLE FROM DRIFTING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...WILL BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES FROM THE

COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.

* WATCH FOR ANY ANNOUNCEMENTS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES CONCERNING

YOUR ROAD CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...

MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU

MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

[OHweather]

The GFS/NAM both show potential for 40+MPH wind gusts not only near the lake but inland as well at 21z tomorrow, when both models show 1-2" per/hour snow rates ongoing:

[Trent]

CLE even refused to go with the blizzard warnings for the infamous March 2008 storm.

Here at the shore it's so incredibly easy to get 35+ winds, so that shouldn't be a concern.

This almost seems surreal. The euro has held solid for over 6 days here not budging with heavy snow. I haven't sweated one bullet of anxiety of a possible miss with this system.

The winds are going to make this a @#$@% to measure. CLE is notoriously bad for measuring snow, so I would not be surprised at all if they come in at the 6-8" range. The euro has been so consistent with about an inch of QPF, with the GFS being similar, and when you apply the proper deductions to the NAM it's also in the ballpark. A widespread 10" is almost a lock.

I will be working downtown tomorrow and I guarantee it will be dead. Should make for some incredible photos. Rush hour for those who have to drive will be impossible, just imagine if this happened on a regular weekday, the 5 pm rush would a nightmare.

[OHweather]

12/26-27 snowstorm forecast final call:

Ok, I have made a few generally minor changes to my snowfall estimates for this system that will come in tomorrow.

First off:

-Shifted amounts south just a tad. The placement of amounts yesterday was based upon the NAM solution with somewhat of a tick southeast. This idea looks good as models came well SE last night, significantly reducing potential snow for the Toledo area, but are coming back northwest a bit this afternoon and evening. When averaged together I feel good with yesterday’s placement, but just a little bit farther southeast.

Second:

-Decided to add a larger zone of 10-14” accumulations.

Trends today seem to be the upper-level system digging farther south and become more wound up allowing for a more moisture laden and phased system.

Note how the upper trough associated ith the storm has dug well into Texas. The jet streak is rounding the base of the trough now and the trough should take on a negative tilt tonight. The system is already partially phased and should fully phase tonight. Initially it was uncertain how much the system would phase, but the upper level shortwave diving farther south should ensure a more complete phase.

The affects of a more phased storm are kind of offset by the system diving farther south than initially thought, so this doesn’t significantly change the track forecast. It does however increase confidence in enough moisture and dynamics moving through the area to support the higher snow totals.

Yesterday I discussed how the dynamics will for a time tomorrow support very heavy snowfall rates. The 18z NAM at CLE supports 1-2” per hour rates (If not more) with lift into the lower portions of the DGZ tomorrow afternoon along with some potential thundersnow. This period of most intense snow looks to last about 6 hours per most models and will account for the majority of the snow accumulation from this system. It looks like a lot of areas may see 6-12” of snow in a 6-8 hour period beginning late tomorrow morning or just after noon bookended by lighter snow on either side of that window.

This easily supports widespread 8-14” type totals where the heaviest snow falls.

Right now it appears the nose of the higher mid-level theta-e’s, which should be the area of best snow rates, appears to move across much of northern Ohio for a time tomorrow, with the best emphasis likely being south of the lake. So, I’ll focus the higher totals in that region. Due to the mid-level low stalling near SW Ohio tomorrow afternoon, the focus of the heavier snow may remain over eastern portions of the area a bit longer than western portions.

There should be enough mid-level frontogenesis over northern portions of the area on the north side of the weakening mid-level low to keep moderate deformation snows going through much of the evening over the north and east.

There should be enough moisture and low level instability left over for a period of light lake enhancement the second portion of Wednesday night-Thursday morning which may tack on an inch or two in the secondary Snowbelt in that timeframe.

So, when adding it all up:

-About a 6 hour period of heavy precip rates of .1-.2” per hour starting just after noon the Cleveland area and lasting till the early evening. Strongly supported by most models showing very strong dynamics in the low-mid and even upper levels in that time frame. This should drop a widespread 6-10” across the area, with more if you believe the NAM. For now I’ll go with the “conservative” numbers in that timeframe, which are still very impressive.

-Perhaps a half inch of snow prior to the snow rates really increasing. And, a few hours of moderate snow rates due to the decaying deform after the insane WAA snows tomorrow evening. This should be another 2-4” across the northern portions of the area and eastern portions of the area.

-Another 1-2” of lake effect/enhanced snow in the Snowbelts (mainly higher terrain) late Wednesday night and early Thursday.

This adds up to a widespread 8-16” across the area. I’ll trim a little off the higher numbers but again, if the insane WAA snow tomorrow afternoon doesn’t underperform, the higher ends of my numbers may verify across a good portion of the area.

Both the GFS/NAM show 40kt 925mb winds across much of the area, even away from Lake Erie, tomorrow afternoon which should support marginal blizzard criteria winds near the lake and it will be close inland as well. Something to watch for because I think we’ll easily hit the visibility requirement.

Stay safe to anyone who needs to travel tomorrow (myself included)!

[weatherman5416]

Thanks for the very informative discussion OHweather! What time would you anticipate the heaviest snowfall in beaver county? (Just north of Pittsburgh)

[OHweather]

Thanks for the very informative discussion OHweather! What time would you anticipate the heaviest snowfall in beaver county? (Just north of Pittsburgh)

10am-6pm. The heaviest amounts will likely fall to your north, however.

[dilly84]

10am-6pm. The heaviest amounts will likely fall to your north, however.

I think we are close on our amounts. Repost my maps from the central Ohio thread if you'd like. I'm mobile.

[weatherman5416]

10am-6pm. The heaviest amounts will likely fall to your north, however.

Ok thanks. I am supposed to work until 4 so hopefully the roads will be well treated.

[OHweather]

I think we are close on our amounts. Repost my maps from the central Ohio thread if you'd like. I'm mobile.

Ya, I saw your maps. I may be a bit NW of you but not by much...pretty similar forecasts.

[dilly84]

Ya, I saw your maps. I may be a bit NW of you but not by much...pretty similar forecasts.

I think the main difference is the tilt in our maps.. overall not bad. Let's just hope, for me, this thing isn't much further nw than modeled or I'll be in trouble.

[NEOH]

12/26-27 snowstorm forecast final call:

Ok, I have made a few generally minor changes to my snowfall estimates for this system that will come in tomorrow.

First off:

-Shifted amounts south just a tad. The placement of amounts yesterday was based upon the NAM solution with somewhat of a tick southeast. This idea looks good as models came well SE last night, significantly reducing potential snow for the Toledo area, but are coming back northwest a bit this afternoon and evening. When averaged together I feel good with yesterday’s placement, but just a little bit farther southeast.

Second:

-Decided to add a larger zone of 10-14” accumulations.

Trends today seem to be the upper-level system digging farther south and become more wound up allowing for a more moisture laden and phased system.

Note how the upper trough associated ith the storm has dug well into Texas. The jet streak is rounding the base of the trough now and the trough should take on a negative tilt tonight. The system is already partially phased and should fully phase tonight. Initially it was uncertain how much the system would phase, but the upper level shortwave diving farther south should ensure a more complete phase.

The affects of a more phased storm are kind of offset by the system diving farther south than initially thought, so this doesn’t significantly change the track forecast. It does however increase confidence in enough moisture and dynamics moving through the area to support the higher snow totals.

Yesterday I discussed how the dynamics will for a time tomorrow support very heavy snowfall rates. The 18z NAM at CLE supports 1-2” per hour rates (If not more) with lift into the lower portions of the DGZ tomorrow afternoon along with some potential thundersnow. This period of most intense snow looks to last about 6 hours per most models and will account for the majority of the snow accumulation from this system. It looks like a lot of areas may see 6-12” of snow in a 6-8 hour period beginning late tomorrow morning or just after noon bookended by lighter snow on either side of that window.

This easily supports widespread 8-14” type totals where the heaviest snow falls.

Right now it appears the nose of the higher mid-level theta-e’s, which should be the area of best snow rates, appears to move across much of northern Ohio for a time tomorrow, with the best emphasis likely being south of the lake. So, I’ll focus the higher totals in that region. Due to the mid-level low stalling near SW Ohio tomorrow afternoon, the focus of the heavier snow may remain over eastern portions of the area a bit longer than western portions.

There should be enough mid-level frontogenesis over northern portions of the area on the north side of the weakening mid-level low to keep moderate deformation snows going through much of the evening over the north and east.

There should be enough moisture and low level instability left over for a period of light lake enhancement the second portion of Wednesday night-Thursday morning which may tack on an inch or two in the secondary Snowbelt in that timeframe.

So, when adding it all up:

-About a 6 hour period of heavy precip rates of .1-.2” per hour starting just after noon the Cleveland area and lasting till the early evening. Strongly supported by most models showing very strong dynamics in the low-mid and even upper levels in that time frame. This should drop a widespread 6-10” across the area, with more if you believe the NAM. For now I’ll go with the “conservative” numbers in that timeframe, which are still very impressive.

-Perhaps a half inch of snow prior to the snow rates really increasing. And, a few hours of moderate snow rates due to the decaying deform after the insane WAA snows tomorrow evening. This should be another 2-4” across the northern portions of the area and eastern portions of the area.

-Another 1-2” of lake effect/enhanced snow in the Snowbelts (mainly higher terrain) late Wednesday night and early Thursday.

This adds up to a widespread 8-16” across the area. I’ll trim a little off the higher numbers but again, if the insane WAA snow tomorrow afternoon doesn’t underperform, the higher ends of my numbers may verify across a good portion of the area.

Both the GFS/NAM show 40kt 925mb winds across much of the area, even away from Lake Erie, tomorrow afternoon which should support marginal blizzard criteria winds near the lake and it will be close inland as well. Something to watch for because I think we’ll easily hit the visibility requirement.

Stay safe to anyone who needs to travel tomorrow (myself included)!

Awesome forecast as usual. Appreciate you taking the time to do this. Time to sit back and watch things unfold.

It's been a great Christmas day... hope everyone has had an enjoyable Christmas. Best gift comes tomorrow.

[OHweather]

Awesome forecast as usual. Appreciate you taking the time to do this. Time to sit back and watch things unfold.

It's been a great Christmas day... hope everyone has had an enjoyable Christmas. Best gift comes tomorrow.

No problem, the forecast was fun.

Glad you had a good holiday...tomorrow looks like it will be quite fun.

[NEOH]

Nice to wake up and see everything still on track. Enjoy the snow.

[NavarreDon]

Good luck (although it looks like you don't need it!) guys, have a sister in law & her husband in Stow. Wish we could be spending Christmas with them. Will let you know what the totals are from them when all is said and done.

[Trent]

The roads are caked in rock salt this morning. You can hear the crackle as you drive over them. At least road crews are being very proactive.

Local news seemed to be conservative with regards to snowfall. e.g. hugging the lowest QPF of all the models. Seems to be a safe bet though with a storm of this magnitude as anything over 8" will have a big impact.

[Trent]

Best case scenario hot off the presses!

[OHweather]

Flurries flying here. At the 10am obs it is snowing at Hopkins with a 1.5 mile visibility. Visibility already down to half a mile at Lorain and the radar looks fantastic.

[Trent]

Flurries flying here. At the 10am obs it is snowing at Hopkins with a 1.5 mile visibility. Visibility already down to half a mile at Lorain and the radar looks fantastic.

This is the worst part of the storm. After waiting days on end, those final few hours where you stare at a radar that seemingly barely moves can feel like an eternity.

[NEOH]

This is the worst part of the storm. After waiting days on end, those final few hours where you stare at a radar that seemingly barely moves can feel like an eternity.

Snow has not started here yet. Pretty typical with a dry NE wind. Should start within the hour, hopefully.

[NEOH]

Best case scenario hot off the presses!

Wow. Hasn't the model been pretty accurate?

[OHweather]

This is the worst part of the storm. After waiting days on end, those final few hours where you stare at a radar that seemingly barely moves can feel like an eternity.

Ha for sure. This one wasn't too bad for me waking up at quarter till 10 with flurries beginning to fall.

As NEOH said typical issues with getting the boundary layer saturated...the heavy echoes that are now up to central Summit County and coming north should have no issues reaching the ground and from there it's off to the races.