OhioBlizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 For some reason I just don't have a good feeling about the wrap around and LES. Hope I'm wrong... but I still think 3-6" max in OH at least. W PA will be a different story as moisture looks to hold on longer there... and also a possible Huron connection. Yea NW Pa could easily be 10+" That AFD was horrid...waiting to see now which counties they include in the winter storm watch. Next week, even if the storm does cut to our NW (which I am leaning against right now) it looks like winds and potential front end mixed precip may be threats. Either way we look to stay busy. lol that afd was terrible, embarrassing, etc. Awesome write up by the way. Are you going to OU for the met program? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yea NW Pa could easily be 10+" lol that afd was terrible, embarrassing, etc. Awesome write up by the way. Are you going to OU for the met program? Thanks and yes, OU for met. I really like that part of the state but the snow climo, well, there will be an adjustment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 6Z GFS MOS still shows a total of less than 4" for the area sites (CLE, CAK, AKR). Through Friday evening surface temps are at least several degrees above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 The 6Z GFS MOS still shows a total of less than 4" for the area sites (CLE, CAK, AKR). Through Friday evening surface temps are st least several degrees above freezing. I don't think the GFS has the resolution to pick up on lake effect characteristics for these types of events. I'm curious to see what the hi-res NMM and ARW models from the NCEP show once they roll out around lunch time. They can be overdone at times, but always show the potential. The ARW was the only model that accurately predicted that huge blow up of rain in the middle of the night earlier in the week. They'll probably paint at least a half inch for everyone with some really high totals for inland Geauga up through PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice forecast OHWeather. I feeling a bit more optimistic. Plus, you know a heck of a lot more about forecasting than I do. Gotta love last nights Euro run for the fantasy land storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I always get a kick out of reading/watching all the different media outlet forecasts before a storm. This gets exacerbated when you talk to people about a storm and everyone trusts the source they watched/read. On the radio this morning I heard a forecaster from one of the local TV stations say rain until 7pm tomorrow, switching to light snow afterwards. I would say that my confidence has slipped for areas this far west. It's still going to snow everywhere, just might not be a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks and yes, OU for met. I really like that part of the state but the snow climo, well, there will be an adjustment Cool. I went down there once and it is in a cool location. Way out there in the boonies. Did you look into the OSU meteorology program at all? Thats where I went and it was a pretty good program. OU will be a huge adjustment for snow. When I was in Columbus during the wintertime, it didnt even feel like winter most of the time. Huge difference from our locale to the middle and southern part of the state. They freak out for 3-4 inches of snow The 6Z GFS MOS still shows a total of less than 4" for the area sites (CLE, CAK, AKR). Through Friday evening surface temps are at least several degrees above freezing. Yea thats is my one concern is surface temps a couple degrees above freezing. If its snowing at half to an inch a hour it shouldnt really affect accumulations all that much. But if its snowing lighter than that, might be hard to get accumulations, especially with a water logged ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't think the GFS has the resolution to pick up on lake effect characteristics for these types of events. I'm curious to see what the hi-res NMM and ARW models from the NCEP show once they roll out around lunch time. They can be overdone at times, but always show the potential. The ARW was the only model that accurately predicted that huge blow up of rain in the middle of the night earlier in the week. They'll probably paint at least a half inch for everyone with some really high totals for inland Geauga up through PA. Ya, I'm not going to put much stock in the GFS MOS numbers in a lake effect situation like this. The hi-res NAM still showing a widespread 6-10" for the higher terrain, and we'll get the NMM and ARW coming out within the hour. I do, as always, have my doubts about the lakeshore seeing a ton of snow. I think I painted in 2-4" there and I feel safe with that, with maybe a local 5" if a good band manages to set up near the lakeshore. Nice forecast OHWeather. I feeling a bit more optimistic. Plus, you know a heck of a lot more about forecasting than I do. Gotta love last nights Euro run for the fantasy land storm next week. Thanks. Although relatively speaking, I'm still a noob Ya, next week's storm will be interesting. My general thinking is it likely tracks to our south/east due to the blocking over eastern Canada. If it does cut west initially, there should be ridging in place to our north/east, so I think front end mixed precip could be an issue, and that's worse case IMO. HPC has a low near Pittsburgh day 7. Cool. I went down there once and it is in a cool location. Way out there in the boonies. Did you look into the OSU meteorology program at all? Thats where I went and it was a pretty good program. OU will be a huge adjustment for snow. When I was in Columbus during the wintertime, it didnt even feel like winter most of the time. Huge difference from our locale to the middle and southern part of the state. They freak out for 3-4 inches of snow Yea thats is my one concern is surface temps a couple degrees above freezing. If its snowing at half to an inch a hour it shouldnt really affect accumulations all that much. But if its snowing lighter than that, might be hard to get accumulations, especially with a water logged ground. My guess is in rural SE OH, their snow removal equipment isn't as widespread and hardcore as it is up here or even in Columbus/Cincy. I've never lived in an area that rural before and I'm not sure if I'll have my car...if I do I have a feeling the roads will be crappier than I expect down there when it snows. The ground was actually getting quite cold last week...frost was sticking around in the shade till mid-afternoon (and actually, in SE OH last Friday it was so thick it stuck around all day despite temps near 50, and looked like light snow cover on any north facing hills)...but, the rain and recent warmth has really waterlogged things. I'm thinking temps won't be an issue except for maybe near the lakeshore initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Ya, next week's storm will be interesting. My general thinking is it likely tracks to our south/east due to the blocking over eastern Canada. If it does cut west initially, there should be ridging in place to our north/east, so I think front end mixed precip could be an issue, and that's worse case IMO. HPC has a low near Pittsburgh day 7. 12z agrees with you it seems... not the same set-up as the euro but close enough 6 days out. Safe to say there is a trend to the east with this storm... at least temporarily. It will be interesting to see what the BUF WRF QPF looks like. Haven't even checked to see if CLE's has updated as I probably know the answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 12z agrees with you it seems... not the same set-up as the euro but close enough 6 days out. Safe to say there is a trend to the east with this storm... at least temporarily. It will be interesting to see what the BUF WRF QPF looks like. Haven't even checked to see if CLE's has updated as I probably know the answer. You would be correct The Euro ensembles have been remarkably consistent for a few runs now, with the mean taking a low to near the Ohio River before transferring to the east coast. DT has already thrown out a snow potential map based off the ECM ensembles showing 4-8" here Given the GFS ensembles have also been consistent, but a bit south of the Euro ensembles, I like where we sit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Lake Erie wind @ 2200 EST Dec 21, 2012: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You would be correct The Euro ensembles have been remarkably consistent for a few runs now, with the mean taking a low to near the Ohio River before transferring to the east coast. DT has already thrown out a snow potential map based off the ECM ensembles showing 4-8" here Given the GFS ensembles have also been consistent, but a bit south of the Euro ensembles, I like where we sit here. Yeah, I think we are in a good spot right now. Not a big fan of the low transfering to the coast. But, if the primary remains strong enough the WTOD will works its way north as well. Still along ways to go with that storm. I'm just looking forward to seeing some snow for a change. The BUF wrf was less an impressive qpf wise. I'll stick with my original call of 3-6" max in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'll go out on a limb and say this may be a big bust. Boundary layer temps are too warm, the wind is too strong to prevent significant accumulation. The lake effect areas and higher terrain are a different story, but CLE 3" tops and BKL may only see 1". Outside of the snow belt I'm not sure I see high confidence for a decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'll go out on a limb and say this may be a big bust. Boundary layer temps are too warm, the wind is too strong to prevent significant accumulation. The lake effect areas and higher terrain are a different story, but CLE 3" tops and BKL may only see 1". Outside of the snow belt I'm not sure I see high confidence for a decent snowfall. Ya, I have downtown in my 2-4" zone and CLE right on the 3-6" line. This will be a higher elevation special. I think there will be enough synoptic snow that areas not right on the lake do make out ok, so I'd probably guess 3-4" CLE and 2" BKL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Well, the 12z euro is about as perfect as it gets for OH. Low on the GA/AL border running straight up the apps to central NY. Figured I would post the image in here so we can come back around verification time. I must say though, lots of agreement in TODAY's models runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-210415- /O.UPG.KCLE.WS.A.0002.121221T0900Z-121223T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KCLE.WS.W.0004.121221T0900Z-121223T0000Z/ CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE- NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE 301 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST OHIO SNOWBELT UP TO 12 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE SNOW BELT COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING CAUSING DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bullish call from CLE. The only way I see those totals verifying is the low stays stronger longer, and closer to the area. Doesn't a new low pop over NY state and park itself over the St. Lawrence? Time to sit back and watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The lowest 850 temp from the NAM and GFS grids (using the TAMU Weather Interface) is -9 C Friday night. The 850 hPa winds are around 50 knots Friday afternoon and night. Can't see even a heavy lake effect with those conditions. A lot that does fall will blow away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 NAM holds firm with 0.5"+ QPF across the board. Looking at the sim radar it's easy to see why they went high. I have my doubts IMBY, but it should be apparent very early if this will be a dud at the shore. But the 0.25" line covers almost half the state, so there's still a decent synoptic component to this. Regardless I'll be headed to Geauga on Saturday to check out the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Bullish call from CLE. The only way I see those totals verifying is the low stays stronger longer, and closer to the area. Doesn't a new low pop over NY state and park itself over the St. Lawrence? Time to sit back and watch I guess. I think the SE corner of Cuyahoga in the higher terrain will see the 6-12" amounts, but the rest of the county won't. This is less than an optimal setup but we should see moderate snow through a good chunk of tomorrow night. The lowest 850 temp from the NAM and GFS grids (using the TAMU Weather Interface) is -9 C Friday night. The 850 hPa winds are around 50 knots Friday afternoon and night. Can't see even a heavy lake effect with those conditions. A lot that does fall will blow away? This setup usually produces good moderate snow in the higher terrain. There will certainly be blowing and drifting but unless you live where Trent lives it shouldn't blow away once it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I think the SE corner of Cuyahoga in the higher terrain will see the 6-12" amounts, but the rest of the county won't. This is less than an optimal setup but we should see moderate snow through a good chunk of tomorrow night. This setup usually produces good moderate snow in the higher terrain. There will certainly be blowing and drifting but unless you live where Trent lives it shouldn't blow away once it falls. Our last storm in November with advisories was a complete bust. We probably have our fair share (at least 3 a season) of events where we have warnings/advisories and nothing comes to fruition. Cuyahoga County is always a tricky zone to forecast for. From what I can see/read CLE is going with no less than 4" county wide. The zone forecast, point and clicks, and warning texts all confirm this. Even Lorain has "up to 7 inches accumulation." I do think that 4" will be a lofty goal to achieve here, but south of 480 shouldn't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Shot up quickly from 45 to 50 and then back to 44 within the past hour. After seeing what just unfolded around Chicago, tomorrow has HUGE bust potential. 6-12" wow it's going to take a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 A plastering of white here with a temp of 32 ... we'll see what happens once the winds shift to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 About 0.2" in Chagrin overnight. I'd like to take the kid sledding this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Definitely more than I was expecting here for the initial overnight stuff. Sad that this is December 21 and I'm excited to post a picture of about 0.8" of heavy wet snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 We shall see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ya, I'm not going to put much stock in the GFS MOS numbers in a lake effect situation like this. The hi-res NAM still showing a widespread 6-10" for the higher terrain, and we'll get the NMM and ARW coming out within the hour. I do, as always, have my doubts about the lakeshore seeing a ton of snow. I think I painted in 2-4" there and I feel safe with that, with maybe a local 5" if a good band manages to set up near the lakeshore. Thanks. Although relatively speaking, I'm still a noob Ya, next week's storm will be interesting. My general thinking is it likely tracks to our south/east due to the blocking over eastern Canada. If it does cut west initially, there should be ridging in place to our north/east, so I think front end mixed precip could be an issue, and that's worse case IMO. HPC has a low near Pittsburgh day 7. My guess is in rural SE OH, their snow removal equipment isn't as widespread and hardcore as it is up here or even in Columbus/Cincy. I've never lived in an area that rural before and I'm not sure if I'll have my car...if I do I have a feeling the roads will be crappier than I expect down there when it snows. The ground was actually getting quite cold last week...frost was sticking around in the shade till mid-afternoon (and actually, in SE OH last Friday it was so thick it stuck around all day despite temps near 50, and looked like light snow cover on any north facing hills)...but, the rain and recent warmth has really waterlogged things. I'm thinking temps won't be an issue except for maybe near the lakeshore initially. Yea their snow removal equipment probably is probably on a small scale down there since they don't get nearly the snow. Yea I noticed that frost that stuck round all day in the shade. That was pretty cool. Soil temps currently are in the upper 30's range as of last night. Not too warm I guess. Well, the 12z euro is about as perfect as it gets for OH. Low on the GA/AL border running straight up the apps to central NY. Figured I would post the image in here so we can come back around verification time. I must say though, lots of agreement in TODAY's models runs. That was a beautiful run. If only... Shot up quickly from 45 to 50 and then back to 44 within the past hour. After seeing what just unfolded around Chicago, tomorrow has HUGE bust potential. 6-12" wow it's going to take a miracle. Yea I'm not too confident in the 5-10" CLE has me down for. Think it will be on the lower side for sure. Definitely more than I was expecting here for the initial overnight stuff. Sad that this is December 21 and I'm excited to post a picture of about 0.8" of heavy wet snow: Nice pic. That stuff looks like concrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Got about a half inch here. Just light snow atm. Rapid refresh does have a nice little bulls eye of 3-6 by midnight tonight so we will see. Lake Michigan has been flaring up pretty good so that is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioBlizzard Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 current streamlines. winds shifting a tad slower than models were showing. probably another 3-4 hours before winds shift enough to get any kind of decent lake enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Once those winds shift, the radar will light up like fire. I say by 10 am the western side of Lake Erie will be lit up and by the lunch hour it will have reached Cleveland. The rush hour today will probably end up seeing the heaviest stuff (but I'm not sure it will be sticking to the pavement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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