Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[Trent]

You know the potential is there when the low res GFS is already spitting out 0.5-1.0" QPF. Enhancement transitioning to LES is generally fruitful IMBY so I'm getting more optimistic.

[NEOH]

You know the potential is there when the low res GFS is already spitting out 0.5-1.0" QPF. Enhancement transitioning to LES is generally fruitful IMBY so I'm getting more optimistic.

Awesome combo for heavy snows along the lakeshore. You and OHweather seems pretty optimistic so I'm rolling with it. With track through southern ontario the winds should shift around to a favorable direction pretty quickly. A stall near BUF would be ideal.

[OHweather]

Awesome combo for heavy snows along the lakeshore. You and OHweather seems pretty optimistic so I'm rolling with it. With track through southern ontario the winds should shift around to a favorable direction pretty quickly. A stall near BUF would be ideal.

The 12z GFS almost did that

Showed 24 hours of what would likely be non-stop moderate to heavy snow wherever it set up...and as Trent mentioned an easy 5-10" verbatim assuming a 10:1 ratio...so far it's the slowest guidance I've seen since a few Euro runs ago, so we'll see if it's a new trend or if it's a hiccup.

[OhioBlizzard]

I saved this radar right when I went to bed. There must have been bright banding (although it's weird that the bright banding is occurring so close to the radar...the freezing level aloft was still 3-4k ft at this time) but this seems like a 2011 type event where all rain is mysteriously rung out over NE OH:

Yea it was coming down last night

Thanks. I'm as on board as I can be 8-9 days out for next week's potential, I'll say that.

Tonight, the hi-res NAM on e-wall starts seeing out to Friday, so it will be interesting to see what exactly it starts doing with the lake effect. I'm still fairly optimistic and am glad CLE is also on board for Friday.

Latest nam is really cranking it out for our area on Friday. Lot of left over moisture in the area after that system passes by

You know the potential is there when the low res GFS is already spitting out 0.5-1.0" QPF. Enhancement transitioning to LES is generally fruitful IMBY so I'm getting more optimistic.

Yea latest gfs had 10-12" for parts of NE ohio. Like seeing that on the gfs when we are still a couple days out

[OhioBlizzard]

Really started to look promising for the lake effect starting on friday. Doesnt look like more than a 24-36 hour event but conditions during that time frame look really encouraging. 850s dont look great but with the lake being above average temp wise it should be sufficient and deep low level moisture will be present which will help out tremendously. Low level shear doesnt look like it will be to bad either. Still not a great consensus on the exact flow. gfs wants to bring in a more northerly component eventually while euro keeps it more in the WNW area. If ends up going towards the gfs solution then we could be looking at a primary band setting up friday transitioning to a multi band setup as we go on through the event instead of just a primary band or two for the whole event like what the euro would most likely result in. Latest nam, looking juicey

[OHweather]

Really started to look promising for the lake effect starting on friday. Doesnt look like more than a 24-36 hour event but conditions during that time frame look really encouraging. 850s dont look great but with the lake being above average temp wise it should be sufficient and deep low level moisture will be present which will help out tremendously. Low level shear doesnt look like it will be to bad either. Still not a great consensus on the exact flow. gfs wants to bring in a more northerly component eventually while euro keeps it more in the WNW area. If ends up going towards the gfs solution then we could be looking at a primary band setting up friday transitioning to a multi band setup as we go on through the event instead of just a primary band or two for the whole event like what the euro would most likely result in. Latest nam, looking juicey

Nice post. Ya, wind direction is still uncertain, but we can still get decent snows on a WNW wind or more NNW wind here, especially with synoptic moisture rotating through. It looks like we won't hang on to a stubborn WSW flow for too long behind the storm which is also good.

[OhioBlizzard]

Nice post. Ya, wind direction is still uncertain, but we can still get decent snows on a WNW wind or more NNW wind here, especially with synoptic moisture rotating through. It looks like we won't hang on to a stubborn WSW flow for too long behind the storm which is also good.

Hey thanks. I agree about the WNW wind. Southern cuy., northen summit, and nrth portage usually seem to get a nice band to set up with that direction, which would put you in a pretty good position. I'm usually on the southern outskirts in streetsboro with that type of a setup. Hopefully we can get a better consensus on wind direction in the next couple of runs.

[OHweather]

Typical CLE vagueness but, they appear to be getting a bit bullish:

FOR THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CONCERN IS HOW

STRONG WILL THE WINDS BE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME QUESTION AS

TO HOW QUICKLY THEY WILL INCREASE. BECAUSE OF THAT DID NOT ISSUE A

HIGH WIND WATCH.

THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD BE

FORECAST AREA WIDE BECAUSE OF SO MUCH MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE LAKE EFFECT WILL START ON FRIDAY. NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE QUITE

WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY...CAUSING BLOW AND DRIFTING

SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SNOW BELT

AREA.

SOME QUESTIONS WHETHER THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY

NIGHT.

I have amounts in mind but I don't want to throw them out quite yet.

[Trent]

18z NAM looks beautiful. You know the high res models are going to be off the charts.

I'm disappointed in the AFD, not too insightful. This is shaping up to be the biggest regional snow impact in 2 years and the first real accumulating snow in 9.5 months on a busy holiday weekend.

Still two days out before the front breezes through though, seems like an eternity.

[OHweather]

The 18z GFS and NAM continued the 12z trend of slowing down the system's eastward movement, allowing deep synoptic moisture to remain overhead until very late Friday night or Saturday morning, depending on your model of choice. Both models are spitting out warning criteria snow verbatim right now.

This is looking to be a classic situation of a general light snow across the area as the wrap around pulls through, with lake enhancement setting up Friday morning as the winds swing around to the NW and even more NNWrly by Friday evening. With lake temps of around 5C-8C east of the islands 850mb temps of -8 to -10 as progged by Friday afternoon will yield moderate lake induced instability on top of the synoptic moisture and lift associated with the wrap around snow showers pulling through. Combine this with what appears to be a more NW or NNW flow this should be a classic spraying of moderate to heavy snow in the higher terrain with light to moderate snow near the lake shore.

Will wait another model cycle or two to make sure this general idea holds but this should be a significant amount of snow in the higher terrain with moderate amounts down by the lake. With a more NNW wind a dominant Lake Huron band may try to also move into Ohio but this is a bit more of an uncertainty at this point.

Either way with winds gusting to 40MPH and even at times to near 50MPH during the snow and what appears to be a fairly wet snow this should be a wintry spectacle across much of north central and NE Ohio Friday and Friday night.

[FL510]

The 18z GFS and NAM continued the 12z trend of slowing down the system's eastward movement, allowing deep synoptic moisture to remain overhead until very late Friday night or Saturday morning, depending on your model of choice. Both models are spitting out warning criteria snow verbatim right now.

This is looking to be a classic situation of a general light snow across the area as the wrap around pulls through, with lake enhancement setting up Friday morning as the winds swing around to the NW and even more NNWrly by Friday evening. With lake temps of around 5C-8C east of the islands 850mb temps of -8 to -10 as progged by Friday afternoon will yield moderate lake induced instability on top of the synoptic moisture and lift associated with the wrap around snow showers pulling through. Combine this with what appears to be a more NW or NNW flow this should be a classic spraying of moderate to heavy snow in the higher terrain with light to moderate snow near the lake shore.

Will wait another model cycle or two to make sure this general idea holds but this should be a significant amount of snow in the higher terrain with moderate amounts down by the lake. With a more NNW wind a dominant Lake Huron band may try to also move into Ohio but this is a bit more of an uncertainty at this point.

Either way with winds gusting to 40MPH and even at times to near 50MPH during the snow and what appears to be a fairly wet snow this should be a wintry spectacle across much of north central and NE Ohio Friday and Friday night.

Great write up. Thanks.

My first guesstimate for Chagrin is 6-8".

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2012/12/clevelands_snowless_stretch_is.html#incart_river_default

[Trent]

Great write up. Thanks.

My first guesstimate for Chagrin is 6-8".

http://www.cleveland...t_river_default

And any of those old records would have been taken downtown. It's quite common for the Airport/Areas just a mile or two inland to have their first inch weeks before downtown which is why this record latest inch at Hopkins is mighty impressive.

I'm still surprised at the lack of hype this snow potential is getting. Reading the BUF and CLE forecast discussions are like night and day. The NAM last night was showing about 10" for CLE, which is probably a tad overdone. Nonetheless it highlights the potential, especially considering the global models don't have the resolution to handle the fine tune details of LES/Enhancement.

This event is starting to remind me of the February 24-27 storm of 2010. If I recall there was a lakes cutter to our west transferring to a low that just sort of sat over central upstate New York with rotating bands of lake enhancement for a day or two. Most areas had 8-14" with that, but the duration was a tad longer (with a much colder lake).

[NEOH]

Big difference in the GFS and NAM in regards to snowfall. My biggest concern is that ridging pushes in quickly from the west while the atmosphere dries out. A lot depends how far east the low slows down... there will probably be a sharp cut off to the snowfall.

I'll go with 3-6" in the higher terrain well inland. 1-4" areas north of 322. Hope I bust on the low side, but I have a few concerns such as marginal 850 temps, strong winds, and possibly the moisture pulling out more quickly than expected.

[OHweather]

Big difference in the GFS and NAM in regards to snowfall. My biggest concern is that ridging pushes in quickly from the west while the atmosphere dries out. A lot depends how far east the low slows down... there will probably be a sharp cut off to the snowfall.

I'll go with 3-6" in the higher terrain well inland. 1-4" areas north of 322. Hope I bust on the low side, but I have a few concerns such as marginal 850 temps, strong winds, and possibly the moisture pulling out more quickly than expected.

That is my one main concern. If we see the low stall near Syracuse we should be fine, but if it stalls much farther east we'll start drying out while NW PA gets dumped on.

Edit to add:

General guess, and I'll probably fine tune and clarify these later assuming I'm not at work till like 2am, is general 2-4"...with less towards Toledo and way down near the far southeastern fringe of CLE's CWA...3-6" for the secondary snowbelt...and 4-8" for the primary snowbelt in the higher terrain. For the lakeshore from Lorain County east I'll probably take 2-5"...if we see some scenarios like some of yesterday afternoon's models showed and the low stalls a bit farther west, we could probably add a few inches to those totals, but for now, I feel safe enough with those numbers.

[Trent]

NAM seems to be backing down a bit. I think realistic expectations are 6-8" in the primary/secondary snowbelt and 3-6" elsewhere. Of course room to add to that, but doubtful anyone away from immediate shoreline gets less than 3 inches.

[OHweather]

Hi-res 12z NAM on e-wall (which runs out 60 hours) is a good idea of what we are dealing with. It's looking like about a 12 hour period of wraparound snow with light enhancement on Friday, with a general 2-3" across the area with locally up to 4" by Friday evening in the higher terrain.

Then, by Friday evening as 850mb temps drop to -8 to -10C we see lake induced instability increase farther and snow ratios increase as well. This means the potential is there starting Friday evening for snow to accumulate much better. So, if we see the mid-level moisture hang around much of Friday night we can add several inches onto the general 2-4" in the Snowbelt...if the moisture pulls out quickly, the snow doesn't get a chance to "pile on" in the primary and secondary belts.

The model also shows a good amount of lake-effect re-developing by 0z Saturday after a brief slowdown late Friday afternoon:

[OhioBlizzard]

Big difference in the GFS and NAM in regards to snowfall. My biggest concern is that ridging pushes in quickly from the west while the atmosphere dries out. A lot depends how far east the low slows down... there will probably be a sharp cut off to the snowfall.

I'll go with 3-6" in the higher terrain well inland. 1-4" areas north of 322. Hope I bust on the low side, but I have a few concerns such as marginal 850 temps, strong winds, and possibly the moisture pulling out more quickly than expected.

Yea that ridge is a factor. Some models showing it shutting us down midday saturday while others have it delayed 12+ hours, which would make a huge difference.

NAM seems to be backing down a bit. I think realistic expectations are 6-8" in the primary/secondary snowbelt and 3-6" elsewhere. Of course room to add to that, but doubtful anyone away from immediate shoreline gets less than 3 inches.

Yea nam sometimes overamps the precip. Seems to be coming back to reality on todays 12z

Hi-res 12z NAM on e-wall (which runs out 60 hours) is a good idea of what we are dealing with. It's looking like about a 12 hour period of wraparound snow with light enhancement on Friday, with a general 2-3" across the area with locally up to 4" by Friday evening in the higher terrain.

Then, by Friday evening as 850mb temps drop to -8 to -10C we see lake induced instability increase farther and snow ratios increase as well. This means the potential is there starting Friday evening for snow to accumulate much better. So, if we see the mid-level moisture hang around much of Friday night we can add several inches onto the general 2-4" in the Snowbelt...if the moisture pulls out quickly, the snow doesn't get a chance to "pile on" in the primary and secondary belts.

The model also shows a good amount of lake-effect re-developing by 0z Saturday after a brief slowdown late Friday afternoon:

It will be interesting to see like you said how long that moisture hangs on. If it can hang on, 850s will still be sufficent most of saturday esp. as you get up into ashtabula county. I wouldnt be surpised if the banding lets up for Chardon west by midday saturday and continues in extreme Eastern Lake and Ashtabula counties for most of the day.

[NEOH]

Hi-res 12z NAM on e-wall (which runs out 60 hours) is a good idea of what we are dealing with. It's looking like about a 12 hour period of wraparound snow with light enhancement on Friday, with a general 2-3" across the area with locally up to 4" by Friday evening in the higher terrain.

Then, by Friday evening as 850mb temps drop to -8 to -10C we see lake induced instability increase farther and snow ratios increase as well. This means the potential is there starting Friday evening for snow to accumulate much better. So, if we see the mid-level moisture hang around much of Friday night we can add several inches onto the general 2-4" in the Snowbelt...if the moisture pulls out quickly, the snow doesn't get a chance to "pile on" in the primary and secondary belts.

The model also shows a good amount of lake-effect re-developing by 0z Saturday after a brief slowdown late Friday afternoon:

Far eastern Erie PA county special coming up (along with WNY of course). NAM seems to have backed down on precip as Trent mentioned. Not sure about the GFS. I think the CLE area is going to need this storm to stall/slow down further west than eastern NY state for the area to see larger snow totals.

[Trent]

GFS doesn't look as impressive as yesterday too. Really shaping up for basically Conneaut and points NE.

We'll still get snow, but then again 3-6" will sure feel like a lot after the snow drought.

[Speedskater]

And any of those old records would have been taken downtown. It's quite common for the Airport/Areas just a mile or two inland to have their first inch weeks before downtown which is why this record latest inch at Hopkins is mighty impressive.

For sure. My father worked just south of Hopkins from about 1950 to 1970. He would sometimes comment about how the weather would deteriorate as he approached the airport (southbound). It seemed like Brookpark Road was a weather dividing line.

[OhioBlizzard]

GFS doesn't look as impressive as yesterday too. Really shaping up for basically Conneaut and points NE.

We'll still get snow, but then again 3-6" will sure feel like a lot after the snow drought.

I bet there are quite a few locals that get 6+. Still gonna be a decent event. Won't be shocked if CLE puts out some watches with the 4 PM package

[NEOH]

Not a real informative AFD from CLE. They do mention the LES letting up SUNDAY (wonder if they looked at the 12z models).

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH 850,N WINDS AT 50 TO 70 KNOTS WILL HAVE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL BE CHANGING TO SNOW FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE NIGHT EAST AND WEST WILL DROP AND TRANSITION TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND THEN CONTINUE IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT HAVE A 4TH PERIOD ADVISORY BUT IMAGINE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR WIND AND/OR SNOW FRIDAY OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT AREAS. FOR FRIDAY WILL ALSO HAVE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SNOW BELT AREAS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE CRITICAL AND WILL ADD TO THE

ISSUES.

-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SHSN SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE AREA. STARTING MON THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SO FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU WED TIME FRAME BUT TIMING AND TRACK VARIES CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE MODELS. FOR NOW THINK BEST MOVE IS TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST MON THEN START TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT AND MORE SO TUE INTO WED. TYPE OF PRECIP ALSO UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LARGE DIFFERENCES

IN TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BY WED IT LOOKS TO BE LEANING MORE TO SNOW.

-- End Changed Discussion --

[NEOH]

I bet there are quite a few locals that get 6+. Still gonna be a decent event. Won't be shocked if CLE puts out some watches with the 4 PM package

For some reason I just don't have a good feeling about the wrap around and LES. Hope I'm wrong... but I still think 3-6" max in OH at least. W PA will be a different story as moisture looks to hold on longer there... and also a possible Huron connection.

[OHweather]

That AFD was horrid...waiting to see now which counties they include in the winter storm watch.

Next week, even if the storm does cut to our NW (which I am leaning against right now) it looks like winds and potential front end mixed precip may be threats. Either way we look to stay busy.

[OHweather]

Cuyahoga is in the watch...they are going with 6-10" in the watch area and right now are letting the headline run through Saturday.

OHZ011>014-089-PAZ001>003-200530-

/O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0002.121221T0900Z-121223T0000Z/

CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-

NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...

JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

423 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH

SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IN

ADDITION STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF

THE SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING

SNOW.

[Trent]

That AFD was horrid...waiting to see now which counties they include in the winter storm watch.

Next week, even if the storm does cut to our NW (which I am leaning against right now) it looks like winds and potential front end mixed precip may be threats. Either way we look to stay busy.

CLE has never been known for their AFDs but this takes the cake for an upcoming snowstorm on a holiday weekend. Can't blame them too much though, because this will be a typical event for NE Ohio standards.

This looks like a run of the mill enhancement scenario. We know the drill. The cold front comes through, the deep moisture swings by and like magic the radar instantly fills in with a light green blob from about Vermillion down to Medina and then extends all the way northeast along Lake Erie. Over time the blob of precip that covers everyone becomes more banded in nature as it transitions to more pure LES. The perennial favorite spots get their 10" and the rest get their typical amount. The big question every time we get this set up is: how long will it last?

[OHweather]

12/21-22/12 Synoptic/Lake Effect Snow Forecast:

A strong area of low pressure will cut north to near Chicago and then begin moving more easterly as it runs into blocking over eastern Canada. The low pressure system will be vertically stacked with deep synoptic moisture in the low and mid-levels extending well west of the low pressure, allowing snow showers to occur as the cold air moves in. The snow will start out synoptic in nature with some lake enhancement late Thursday night into Friday before becoming more of a true lake effect event by Friday evening.

Looking at the synoptic snow aspect of things first…the remaining warm tongue in the lower and mid-levels will move over much of northern Ohio starting very late Thursday night and into Friday afternoon. This will promote modest low to mid-level lift across much of the area during this time frame thanks to some mid-level frontogenesis. The 18z NAM shows this well, in the same timeframe as the above image, with some decent negative 850mb vv’s across much of northern OH:

Snow growth will not be fantastic during the day Friday with moisture and lift only making it to the lower portions of the DGZ, however, this setup should yield a solid area of light to moderate snows for much of the day Friday across the region, before the remaining synoptic lift shifts east towards western PA and NY Friday evening.

In general it appears as though this regime should drop a general 2-3” on most areas in northern Ohio by Friday evening, with locally up to 4” in the higher terrain from southern Cuyahoga County points east due to some lake enhancement beginning Friday afternoon as the flow goes more NW, pushing low level moisture off the lake into the higher terrain.

By Friday evening, 850mb temps drop a few more degrees to -8 to -10C, which will yield a lake-850mb temp differential of 13-17C east of the islands. This will yield moderate lake-induced instability as soundings modified for +5C water temperatures off of the 18z NAM show equilibrium levels rising to near 9k feet Friday night into early Saturday:

This should allow for moderate snow showers to continue Friday night…now, I need to say here:

With the short NW fetch and strong winds, the snow showers will be dependent on having abundant mid-level moisture to help seed the lake effect, with the heaviest snows occurring over the higher terrain as the strong wind hits the hills and rings out the moisture. As soon as the moisture above about 700mb pulls out, the snow will likely dwindle quickly.

There is some disagreement as to when the moisture will pull out to the east. The most recent NAM, Euro, and SREF mean support deep moisture hanging around until early Saturday before pulling east. The GFS is quickest in pulling the moisture east. These are all shown above, valid 6z Saturday. Given the GFS bias of being a bit too progressive, and that the upper level trough will be moving towards an upper level ridge to its east, I will favor the slower solution now, allowing lake effect snow to continue into the early morning hours Saturday as far west as the secondary Snowbelt, before things shut off from west to east early Saturday morning.

Given snow growth will peak Saturday night and lake effect parameters that appear to favor moderate snow, and likely an amorphous blob of snow over the higher terrain, I’d expect another 2-4” of snow to fall over the higher terrain Friday night into Saturday morning, with more as you head farther east.

The NW flow will likely drive a Lake Huron enhanced band towards NW PA, and the moisture will pull out of that region slower. Some of the higher terrain in NW PA will likely eclipse a foot of snow by Saturday evening.

First guess:

[FL510]

OHWeather:

It's a shame you don't write CLE AFDs.

[FL510]

The GFS MOS snow QPF numbers for the region are very low. A trace for CLE through Saturday morning. I guess because of forecast dry air and winds that aren't as veered as other output. Anyone else think it may be premature for bullish forecasts?

[OHweather]

OHWeather:

It's a shame you don't write CLE AFDs.

We'll see. Can't rule it out if I don't mess up this whole college thing too badly

The GFS MOS snow QPF numbers for the region are very low. A trace for CLE through Saturday morning. I guess because of forecast dry air and winds that aren't as veered as other output. Anyone else think it may be premature for bullish forecasts?

I'm shocked they are that low. The 0z NAM held serve and may have increased snow amounts a bit...0z GFS held serve and still pulls out moisture pretty quickly Friday evening.