Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[OHweather]

Ya Lakeeffect, MJO now in phase 1, GWO will probably orbit through Nino-like phases next week. I'm liking this cold shot next weekend.

[hm8]

Good shot for warmest year on record for DTX

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=dtx&storyid=90325&source=0

[NEOH]

The euro teased with a synoptic event last night.... let's see what todays runs bring.

[OhioBlizzard]

A testament to the overall torch this country has seen since July 2011. It's got to end soon (I hope) Much of the rest of the globe has seen average to below average temps in this time span.

Maybe we'll get out of these crappy winters sooner than later. It's good to see that we are the only ones on the globe that are getting torched. The US and Sou. Canada can't corner the torch market forever. It will be some other part of the globe's "turn" and we will get back to winter by next winter if not sometime during this winter.

No offense, but what planet are you living on?

[OhioBlizzard]

opps didnt all post

[OhioBlizzard]

this years anomalies. think snow

[OhioBlizzard]

The euro teased with a synoptic event last night.... let's see what todays runs bring.

yea it will be interesting. models are all over the place this year

[LakeEffectOH]

_{Just saw this from the NWS CLE.}

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY WITH THE LOW MOVING

MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA GETTING THE REGION INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND

THEN COLDER AIR POURING IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD

BE A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

[Trent]

About time. I'm feeling confident that the lake machine will be in high gear for the holiday weekend. The lake is primed, we just need cold air.

[LakeEffectOH]

No offense, but what planet are you living on?

I used this YTD temperature anomaly map. Measurements by satellite.

[LakeEffectOH]

About time. I'm feeling confident that the lake machine will be in high gear for the holiday weekend. The lake is primed, we just need cold air.

The 12/20 - 12/27 models show a Huron - Erie LES connection happening a few times!! We also stand a chance of getting a synoptic snow before Christmas. With the snow coming and no warmup between the 20th & Christmas, from this standpoint, we should be good to go for a white Christmas. <<Keeping fingers & toes crossed hard.>>

[OhioBlizzard]

I used this YTD temperature anomaly map. Measurements by satellite.

wow that is significantly different then noaas. Is that for all of 2012?

[OhioBlizzard]

The 12/20 - 12/27 models show a Huron - Erie LES connection happening a few times!! We also stand a chance of getting a synoptic snow before Christmas. With the snow coming and no warmup between the 20th & Christmas, from this standpoint, we should be good to go for a white Christmas. <<Keeping fingers & toes crossed hard.>>

yea things finally looking up for a change. but were still a week out... hopefully we dont get the shaft again

[NEOH]

Nice Spring err... mid-December day out there. Sun with temps in the 50's! Bikini's at the Browns game today? WTF happened to December.

Just maybe we'll see some snow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame before we are firmly locked in the warm sector of the cutter. I guess for those of us close to the lake we'll get the consolation prize of LES behind the storm... if that comes to fruition.

[OHweather]

Nice Spring err... mid-December day out there. Sun with temps in the 50's! Bikini's at the Browns game today? WTF happened to December.

Just maybe we'll see some snow in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame before we are firmly locked in the warm sector of the cutter. I guess for those of us close to the lake we'll get the consolation prize of LES behind the storm... if that comes to fruition.

Ya, I figured December wouldn't be spectacular, but was hoping for at least a little bit of snow. CLE is running +7.7 on the month through yesterday.

It looks like the Pac jet will overwhelm things next weekend. Instead of perhaps seeing a weekend of lake effect, it's looking like a 12-24 hour shot before we warm back up.

Another rough year for ski resorts and anyone involved in the snow removal business. At least some areas that live and die by the snow more so than us down here, such as northern/central New England and northern Michigan, are off to a bit of a better start than last year.

[Trent]

We will easily breeze past last year's December 17th first inch of snow. Perhaps Friday will be our first inch.

The AFDs really haven't been honking the LES potential (maybe they are still feeling the burn of bust last month?) but Friday and Saturday look to have quite a bit of moisture wrapping around with a WNW/NW flow and delta T's around 17.

We will have probably racked up a 13" deficit by then. And from here through early March, CLE averages between 0.5" and 0.7" of snow daily.

[Jonger]

I used this YTD temperature anomaly map. Measurements by satellite.

All those maps amount to a total 100 year anomaly of 0.8 Degrees above normal. Considering anything over 0.0 is going to be red, that map will be a shade of red nearly globally. Also, why is that map using 1961-1990 base period, that's being highly skewed by the 1965-1980 cool period.

[OhioBlizzard]

We will easily breeze past last year's December 17th first inch of snow. Perhaps Friday will be our first inch.

The AFDs really haven't been honking the LES potential (maybe they are still feeling the burn of bust last month?) but Friday and Saturday look to have quite a bit of moisture wrapping around with a WNW/NW flow and delta T's around 17.

We will have probably racked up a 13" deficit by then. And from here through early March, CLE averages between 0.5" and 0.7" of snow daily.

Yea I think Fridays event will be decent. As long as the sheer isnt too high someone should get some decent LES.

All those maps amount to a total 100 year anomaly of 0.8 Degrees above normal. Considering anything over 0.0 is going to be red, that map will be a shade of red nearly globally. Also, why is that map using 1961-1990 base period, that's being highly skewed by the 1965-1980 cool period.

Whose maps are you referring too?

[OHweather]

By all indications, we are going to see some fun impacts from this Thursday-Friday storm across Northern Ohio...

First off will be the warm surge of air with gusty winds and showers on Thursday...temps may reach into the 50's...

We then may see a flash freeze scenario Thursday night with light synoptic snows wrapping in.

Lake effect parameters aren't off the charts but with synoptic moisture/lift on top of marginally favorable low level lapse rates and help from upstream lakes, we should see a period of decent lake enhancement late Thursday night through Friday.

Winds may easily gust past 50MPH Thursday afternoon through Friday.

Easily should be our biggest weather story since Sandy.

[Trent]

Only 1 out of the last 7 Christmases at CLE has been white. Would be funny if this ridiculously warm and snowless December bucks that trend.

I feel confident that on Saturday the favorite locales will have decent snows on the ground. Here at the shore is a different story, the strong winds tend to keep things a bit inland.

Hopefully we can start to pin down the enhancement scenarios in a few days.

[OHweather]

Only 1 out of the last 7 Christmases at CLE has been white. Would be funny if this ridiculously warm and snowless December bucks that trend.

I feel confident that on Saturday the favorite locales will have decent snows on the ground. Here at the shore is a different story, the strong winds tend to keep things a bit inland.

Hopefully we can start to pin down the enhancement scenarios in a few days.

Ya. In all honesty I'd put the chances of a white Christmas at Hopkins at like 30%...they could well eek out an inch or so of snow between synoptic wrap around and whatever enhancement they manage to get on a strong WNW flow...but we will have a few days for the snow to compact or melt or whatever. The Snow Belt from eastern Cuyahoga points east looks more and more like a lock, however.

[NEOH]

By all indications, we are going to see some fun impacts from this Thursday-Friday storm across Northern Ohio...

First off will be the warm surge of air with gusty winds and showers on Thursday...temps may reach into the 50's...

We then may see a flash freeze scenario Thursday night with light synoptic snows wrapping in.

Lake effect parameters aren't off the charts but with synoptic moisture/lift on top of marginally favorable low level lapse rates and help from upstream lakes, we should see a period of decent lake enhancement late Thursday night through Friday.

Winds may easily gust past 50MPH Thursday afternoon through Friday.

Easily should be our biggest weather story since Sandy.

The euro really tries to pull out the moisture quickly. 850 temps are ok but not extreme. Anyway, its fun to have some weather to track for a change.

I'm catiously optimistic we'll get a decent snowfall behind the storm. One thing that would help is a more due east track one the storm passes so we don't have a long period of WSW winds prior to the wind shift.

[OHweather]

The euro really tries to pull out the moisture quickly. 850 temps are ok but not extreme. Anyway, its fun to have some weather to track for a change.

I'm catiously optimistic we'll get a decent snowfall behind the storm. One thing that would help is a more due east track one the storm passes so we don't have a long period of WSW winds prior to the wind shift.

It will probably be a relatively short duration event...

But, most modeling is indicating good moisture up through about 600mb through much of Friday before ridging eats away the moisture and really lowers the inversions by Saturday morning. Given this good moisture and what look to be synoptically induced -vv's in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere Friday morning into the afternoon per the GFS and Euro as the decaying deform zone moves through, we should see a period of decent lake enhancement in that time-frame with light synoptic snows elsewhere for several hours.

The very fast low level flow and marginal low level delta-t's are usually negative factors, but synoptic moisture and lift should easily override these factors...we may also see snow showers off of lake MI make it to western lake Erie in tact given the fast winds which should help.

One interesting factor is the wind speed and direction...once the winds go WNW, which should occur at some point Friday morning, they will favor a primary band into our general area...however, they may be too strong for this banding to occur, and will be too westerly for classic orographic lift snows. So it will be interesting to see where the best enhancement sets up. But I do think it should occur for much of Friday downwind of the lake.

[NEOH]

It will probably be a relatively short duration event...

But, most modeling is indicating good moisture up through about 600mb through much of Friday before ridging eats away the moisture and really lowers the inversions by Saturday morning. Given this good moisture and what look to be synoptically induced -vv's in the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere Friday morning into the afternoon per the GFS and Euro as the decaying deform zone moves through, we should see a period of decent lake enhancement in that time-frame with light synoptic snows elsewhere for several hours.

The very fast low level flow and marginal low level delta-t's are usually negative factors, but synoptic moisture and lift should easily override these factors...we may also see snow showers off of lake MI make it to western lake Erie in tact given the fast winds which should help.

One interesting factor is the wind speed and direction...once the winds go WNW, which should occur at some point Friday morning, they will favor a primary band into our general area...however, they may be too strong for this banding to occur, and will be too westerly for classic orographic lift snows. So it will be interesting to see where the best enhancement sets up. But I do think it should occur for much of Friday downwind of the lake.

I like your optimism. Good moisture can certanily out weigh some of the negatives. If we can manage a connection to L MI that would help prime the air with the strong wind speeds reducing residence time.

[Trent]

CLE finally starting to honk the LES potential on Friday.

Anyone else shocked at the rain that fell last night? I woke up at about 2 am to a complete downpour. I checked the radar and it looked like a summer squall line complex. I'm sure there was some bright banding, but some areas did pick up about an inch of rain overnight.

CLE wasn't the sweet spot overnight, but they just need 1.4" of rain through the end of the year to crack into the top 10 wettest years list again. It's going to come close. Basically Northern Ohio and and parts of W KY and WV are the only wet spots east of the Rockies this year.

[dta1984]

CLE finally starting to honk the LES potential on Friday.

Anyone else shocked at the rain that fell last night? I woke up at about 2 am to a complete downpour. I checked the radar and it looked like a summer squall line complex. I'm sure there was some bright banding, but some areas did pick up about an inch of rain overnight.

CLE wasn't the sweet spot overnight, but they just need 1.4" of rain through the end of the year to crack into the top 10 wettest years list again. It's going to come close. Basically Northern Ohio and and parts of W KY and WV are the only wet spots east of the Rockies this year.

It did rain real good last night. I woke up to snow, and wasn't expecting that at all. Doesn't seem to be sticking, but it's definitely mixing in.

[NEOH]

CLE finally starting to honk the LES potential on Friday.

Anyone else shocked at the rain that fell last night? I woke up at about 2 am to a complete downpour. I checked the radar and it looked like a summer squall line complex. I'm sure there was some bright banding, but some areas did pick up about an inch of rain overnight.

CLE wasn't the sweet spot overnight, but they just need 1.4" of rain through the end of the year to crack into the top 10 wettest years list again. It's going to come close. Basically Northern Ohio and and parts of W KY and WV are the only wet spots east of the Rockies this year.

Really surprised by the rain last night. I heard it coming down but I didn't think we've got that much. I looked out my window to see that my backyard was transformed into a pond. Radar estimates looks weird... but I'm guessing well over an inch IMBY.

Snow must have mixed in as I had some slush on my car and deck.

Good to see CLE on board for the LES potential.

[OHweather]

I saved this radar right when I went to bed. There must have been bright banding (although it's weird that the bright banding is occurring so close to the radar...the freezing level aloft was still 3-4k ft at this time) but this seems like a 2011 type event where all rain is mysteriously rung out over NE OH:

[NEOH]

I saved this radar right when I went to bed. There must have been bright banding (although it's weird that the bright banding is occurring so close to the radar...the freezing level aloft was still 3-4k ft at this time) but this seems like a 2011 type event where all rain is mysteriously rung out of NE OH:

Nice disco in the long range thread. Hopefully next weeks storm can take a more favorable track for the OH valley. DT seems to think so.

[OHweather]

Nice disco in the long range thread. Hopefully next weeks storm can take a more favorable track for the OH valley. DT seems to think so.

Thanks. I'm as on board as I can be 8-9 days out for next week's potential, I'll say that.

Tonight, the hi-res NAM on e-wall starts seeing out to Friday, so it will be interesting to see what exactly it starts doing with the lake effect. I'm still fairly optimistic and am glad CLE is also on board for Friday.