Trent Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think it's safe to revise estimates for CLE's annual snowfall downward this year. We are at the slowest start to winter in over 65 years and the next week doesn't look too promising. The plus side is that getting to normal would require a rocking rest of the snow year. But even if things switch over to normal by the end of the month, we'd only end up with about 50" this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well, I would have said it was snow...LOL! 24 hrs too late...I picked up about 1/2 inch last night. How about you? Only a dusting over here in cuyahoga county. We put an offer an a house out in South Russell... still waiting for the deal to go through. Elevation is great out there, but a little too far south for my liking. I'm worried about moving to the perfect snow location, while my wife was thinking about other things like the school district etc. Priorities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I think it's safe to revise estimates for CLE's annual snowfall downward this year. We are at the slowest start to winter in over 65 years and the next week doesn't look too promising. The plus side is that getting to normal would require a rocking rest of the snow year. But even if things switch over to normal by the end of the month, we'd only end up with about 50" this year. Yeah, it's going to take one heck of run to get to normal. I'm not counting it out at this point, but we need to start putting something on the board soon... starting next week hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The track being shown by the Euro and its ensembles with next Tuesday-Wednesday's system is damn near perfect for us down near the Ohio River. Still a lot of time to adjust that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Only a dusting over here in cuyahoga county. We put an offer an a house out in South Russell... still waiting for the deal to go through. Elevation is great out there, but a little too far south for my liking. I'm worried about moving to the perfect snow location, while my wife was thinking about other things like the school district etc. Priorities! I'm on the Chagrin/South Russell border. Can't go wrong with the school district, but it does seem like Burton/Chardon/Thompson get 10-20" more snow than I do in any given year. A beautiful day today. We didn't even get a dusting during yesterday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm on the Chagrin/South Russell border. Can't go wrong with the school district, but it does seem like Burton/Chardon/Thompson get 10-20" more snow than I do in any given year. A beautiful day today. We didn't even get a dusting during yesterday's event. My office is right on Chagrin/South Russell border as well so I'm pretty familar with snowfall in the area. I think Montville is the snow jackpot area in Geauga county... but way to far out for me at least. You are right... one of the best school districts. I'll sacrifice a little snow instead of paying private school tuition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 I'm on the Chagrin/South Russell border. Can't go wrong with the school district, but it does seem like Burton/Chardon/Thompson get 10-20" more snow than I do in any given year. A beautiful day today. We didn't even get a dusting during yesterday's event. I remember Dick Goddard would always say that Thompson was the snow accumulation winner. One time I went out to the Montville - Thompson area when the snow at my house melted to only a few inches. Out there, the snow was almost two feet deep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The track being shown by the Euro and its ensembles with next Tuesday-Wednesday's system is damn near perfect for us down near the Ohio River. Still a lot of time to adjust that though. How does it look for the Cleveland area? Being a today, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Only a dusting over here in cuyahoga county. We put an offer an a house out in South Russell... still waiting for the deal to go through. Elevation is great out there, but a little too far south for my liking. I'm worried about moving to the perfect snow location, while my wife was thinking about other things like the school district etc. Priorities! South Russell does better in LES events when the winds are blowing out of the northwest. The LES bands have gone over more higher elevation land thus adding to the intensity. Also, SR consistently does better than places west of Chardon during synoptic events. During synoptic snows, when the wind is out of the NE, dry air dissipates the snow a little. Being farther south makes a noticeable difference. Is the house you are looking at east of 306 or west of 306? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 South Russell does better in LES events when the winds are blowing out of the northwest. The LES bands have gone over more higher elevation land thus adding to the intensity. Also, SR consistently does better than places west of Chardon during synoptic events. During synoptic snows, when the wind is out of the NE, dry air dissipates the snow a little. Being farther south makes a noticeable difference. Is the house you are looking at east of 306 or west of 306? The house is east of 306... just under 1,200 ft. Was hoping to close before Winter ends but not happening. It will definitely be an improvement over lyndhurst. Interesting Euro run this afternoon. Next week's storm is a whiff to the SE. Wouldn't that be a kick in the arse. Hopefully we'll see a trend back to the NW. Maybe OHWeather can inform us what the ensemble's show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Unfortunetly I don't have any special access to the Euro ensembles. The op run would definitely be a half decent lake effect situation for the end of next week. Posts in the New England forum indicate the ensembles again clobber New England. We'll see what that means this far west. The west based -NAO wasn't originally progged to be there this weekend into next week but now it is, opening the door for southern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The house is east of 306... just under 1,200 ft. Was hoping to close before Winter ends but not happening. It will definitely be an improvement over lyndhurst. Interesting Euro run this afternoon. Next week's storm is a whiff to the SE. Wouldn't that be a kick in the arse. Hopefully we'll see a trend back to the NW. Maybe OHWeather can inform us what the ensemble's show? You may luck out and not miss that much this winter. Eventually we will get a good winter (hopefully next year). The GFS ensembles show this will be a rainstorm along I-95, a pretty good snowstorm for the interior. For us, looks more like lake effect, but how much is another matter. 850 temps look barely below freezing so it looks to be pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The mean has a low near the Ohio River Tuesday morning with 850's colder than -2C. So, it's encouraging that the ensembles are still holding onto the farther north track before transferring to the east coast. The ensembles just keep dumping energy into the trough centered just to our east through the end of next week...we would see snow out of that type of setup. The GFS suite doesn't really do much of anything with the energy coming out of the next west week and is several degrees warmer, meaning no siggy lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 The mean has a low near the Ohio River Tuesday morning with 850's colder than -2C. So, it's encouraging that the ensembles are still holding onto the farther north track before transferring to the east coast. The ensembles just keep dumping energy into the trough centered just to our east through the end of next week...we would see snow out of that type of setup. You think the energy going into the eastern trough will possibly deepen and broaden the trough enough to hold back the higher heights + WAA from the west? The Euro is showing a nasty EPO pattern threatening to move warmer air and higher heights east if the trough moves out. With the progressive pattern we've been in, I think the threat is a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 First wave this weekend produces rain, but runs into the developing block and helps beginning to carve out a trough in the east: Potential second wave ejects Sunday and moves east Monday...however, this wave doesn't appear to be very strong and may get sheared out by the first wave right in front of it...however, it continues to help slowly carve a trough over the east: Third, more potent wave ejects Monday and moves east Tuesday...current forecast orientation of the shortwave along with strong western trough suggests an initial storm tracks into the Ohio Valley, before running into the -NAO block and transferring to the east coast: More energy dumps into the trough on Wednesday-Thursday and we pull down seasonably cool air: Resulting in cold enough air for lake effect Thursday-Sunday as the -NAO keeps the trough in place: The GFS ensembles in the same timeframe don't blow up either of the three waves and don't carve out enough of a trough to see much if any lake effect...so the key here, seems to be amplifying on of those three shortwaves (likely the third one)...and we see snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You may luck out and not miss that much this winter. Eventually we will get a good winter (hopefully next year). The GFS ensembles show this will be a rainstorm along I-95, a pretty good snowstorm for the interior. For us, looks more like lake effect, but how much is another matter. 850 temps look barely below freezing so it looks to be pretty light. C'mon, January will be rockin around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 You think the energy going into the eastern trough will possibly deepen and broaden the trough enough to hold back the higher heights + WAA from the west? The Euro is showing a nasty EPO pattern threatening to move warmer air and higher heights east if the trough moves out. With the progressive pattern we've been in, I think the threat is a good possibility. It's certainly possible. The Euro ensembles are tamer with the +EPO development and would likely keep us near or a bit below normal for a couple days past the end of the run. If the +EPO comes on as aggressively as the op shows we would warm right back up after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 C'mon, January will be rockin around here. Awww, I very well may be wrong...this could be a trip thru the bad Phases (4-7) of the MJO to the better Phases (8, 1 & 2). Plus we may be seeing more of a Nino pattern in the Jan - Mar period which would improve that stupid Pacific pattern and the Nino pattern would probably allow more Arctic air in Canada to move into the lower 48. Nino typically means an active storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 12, 2012 Author Share Posted December 12, 2012 With no snow CLE breaks their record for longest span between 1 inch snowfalls tomorrow at 283 days. That will only grow higher. The latest first inch at CLE set last year on December 17th will most likely be broken this year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 It's certainly possible. The Euro ensembles are tamer with the +EPO development and would likely keep us near or a bit below normal for a couple days past the end of the run. If the +EPO comes on as aggressively as the op shows we would warm right back up after next weekend. You see this getting any better after Dec? I'm hoping the warming SSTs around the eq/dateline and the low SOIs (3rd consecutive day of 40 & below) will as you said earlier weaken the Pac jet. I'm not sure what the stratosphere holds for the future. I haven't heard much about it in the past few days. Maybe the Euro Ens. are sniffing out changes in the central Pacific SSTs perhaps theoretically forcing the MJO to move through the bad Phases MJO (Phases 4-7) on the way to the better phases (8, 1 and 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With no snow CLE breaks their record for longest span between 1 inch snowfalls tomorrow at 283 days. That will only grow higher. The latest first inch at CLE set last year on December 17th will most likely be broken this year as well. A testament to the overall torch this country has seen since July 2011. It's got to end soon (I hope) Much of the rest of the globe has seen average to below average temps in this time span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 With no snow CLE breaks their record for longest span between 1 inch snowfalls tomorrow at 283 days. That will only grow higher. The latest first inch at CLE set last year on December 17th will most likely be broken this year as well. We had a rockin decade, now a 1990's winter feels brutal. The GFS from day 6-15 is normal, progressing to below. I'm still laughing at all the people calling normal a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Awww, I very well may be wrong...this could be a trip thru the bad Phases (4-7) of the MJO to the better Phases (8, 1 & 2). Plus we may be seeing more of a Nino pattern in the Jan - Mar period which would improve that stupid Pacific pattern and the Nino pattern would probably allow more Arctic air in Canada to move into the lower 48. Nino typically means an active storm track. Well, Don S continues to forecast a colder and snowier period ahead. I'll ride Don's calls... he killed it last year. On to tonights models runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 We had a rockin decade, now a 1990's winter feels brutal. The GFS from day 6-15 is normal, progressing to below. I'm still laughing at all the people calling normal a torch. Maybe we'll get out of these crappy winters sooner than later. It's good to see that we are the only ones on the globe that are getting torched. The US and Sou. Canada can't corner the torch market forever. It will be some other part of the globe's "turn" and we will get back to winter by next winter if not sometime during this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well, Don S continues to forecast a colder and snowier period ahead. I'll ride Don's calls... he killed it last year. On to tonights models runs. I know...this is the first time in almost two years i've seen Don use the word "colder". He was great last year. I didn't like what he had to say, but I trusted his ideas more than the ideas of colder with a rockin' fill in blank for month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Both suites of guidance continue to trend away from any synoptic snow next Tuesday-Wednesday (although, if the energy comes in stronger we could still spin up a half decent storm on the Ohio Valley in that timeframe)...however, both the GFS and Euro show us seeing a potential long duration lake effect event beginning the latter half of next week and lasting through the weekend, due to the trough carved out by systems running into the -NAO next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Both suites of guidance continue to trend away from any synoptic snow next Tuesday-Wednesday (although, if the energy comes in stronger we could still spin up a half decent storm on the Ohio Valley in that timeframe)...however, both the GFS and Euro show us seeing a potential long duration lake effect event beginning the latter half of next week and lasting through the weekend, due to the trough carved out by systems running into the -NAO next week. Synoptic snows seem almost impossible to come by anymore. I guess the only thing we can hope for is a weak decaying low moving up the OH valley with redevelopment off the EC. It is a nice look for a long duration LES event. Still a long ways out with many model runs to go. Every "threat" is perpetually in the 5-7 time frame. Awful December shaping up. End of rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Synoptic snows seem almost impossible to come by anymore. I guess the only thing we can hope for is a weak decaying low moving up the OH valley with redevelopment off the EC. It is a nice look for a long duration LES event. Still a long ways out with many model runs to go. Every "threat" is perpetually in the 5-7 time frame. Awful December shaping up. End of rant. No kidding. The pattern has certainly supported us staying relatively warm, but areas to our NW definitely could have cashed in more than they did if things lined up just a bit differently. The pattern favors a low heading into the OV then transfering to the east coast the first half of next week, but the shortwaves are coming out right on eachother's heals so you get a strung out mess instead of a more dominant system. There's still time for that to change for the better but it's looking to be a long shot. This is certainly the pattern you want to see for long duration lake effect if the Pacific isn't cooperating...with a west based -NAO forcing a trough to just sit there just to our east. We'll see how we can muck up that potential by Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is certainly the pattern you want to see for long duration lake effect if the Pacific isn't cooperating...with a west based -NAO forcing a trough to just sit there just to our east. We'll see how we can muck up that potential by Monday! Speaking of the Pacific, first the Euro, now the GFS are trying to kill the +EPO by closing off a low around California and building somewhat of a ridge up into the Yukon. I can see a 500mb low migrating and setting up for a longer period of time causing ridging up towards Alaska! Chances are the models are beginning to sense this based on the very negative Southern Oscillation Index that has occurred over the past several days meaning a possible to a more Nino type setup which the patterns shown below depict. (Time sensitive linked maps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Synoptic snows seem almost impossible to come by anymore. I guess the only thing we can hope for is a weak decaying low moving up the OH valley with redevelopment off the EC. It is a nice look for a long duration LES event. Still a long ways out with many model runs to go. Every "threat" is perpetually in the 5-7 time frame. Awful December shaping up. End of rant. Actually, 5 - 7 days is not bad...especially since last winter. Usually it's at least 10 days out. I agree, this December thus far sucks. It's like the Son of Last Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.