SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I remember reading AFDs like that in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I don't think lack of cold air in Canada is going to be the problem in Buffalo. Most of Canada is going to be frigid in the coming days. Below normal temps in Canada in December is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 GFS shows tons of rain across southern and eastern Ohio the next 7 days. If we can get that to trend north just a bit we can easily lock in 8th wettest year on record. I do think that the airport snowfall record will come quite close. We need to make it to the 12th without an inch to tie and the 13th to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yikes, was just reading through the old thread from this time last year and saw this post by Trent. I'm guessing Cle is approaching this record for the latest inch again? Posted 10 December 2011 - 03:03 PM No shock last night, the advisories were not necessary. 3rd latest first inch is a lock now, with 2nd place in sight if we can make it snow free til next weekend. Feels like perpetual October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Yikes, was just reading through the old thread from this time last year and saw this post by Trent. I'm guessing Cle is approaching this record for the latest inch again? Posted 10 December 2011 - 03:03 PM No shock last night, the advisories were not necessary. 3rd latest first inch is a lock now, with 2nd place in sight if we can make it snow free til next weekend. Feels like perpetual October. Yep, last year's December 17th first inch of snow tied for second latest first inch. I'm betting we get some wrap around snow/LES and our first inch occurs a few days before last year. That December 17th lake effect snow event was also the biggest storm last year IMBY and at CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Like last year, there is a vortex near Alaska and it doesn't want to go anywhere anytime soon. We need to either have the PDO region in the NE Pacific to warm causing a slow down in that jet and/or get a west based - NAO to form. One thing I am thinking is that strong Pac jet is preventing the H5 high pressure near Greenland from retrograding further west thus keeping the NAO more east based. That Pac jet needs to weaken. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 I don't think lack of cold air in Canada is going to be the problem in Buffalo. Most of Canada is going to be frigid in the coming days. Below normal temps in Canada in December is very cold. I was thinking the same thing. It is cold in Canada... especially the Yukon. I believe Fairbanks had a departure of -33. Just need a favorable pattern to transport that air down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 Like last year, there is a vortex near Alaska and it doesn't want to go anywhere anytime soon. We need to either have the PDO region in the NE Pacific to warm causing a slow down in that jet and/or get a west based - NAO to form. One thing I am thinking is that strong Pac jet is preventing the H5 high pressure near Greenland from retrograding further west thus keeping the NAO more east based. That Pac jet needs to weaken. That's for sure. After reading some of the thoughts from the mets in the NE subforum, they seem to think an east based NAO is better for areas in the midwest... granted we are stuck between the midwest and EC. I'm not sure if they mean MSP or CLE. Hopefully be on the right side of what ever pattern evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 6, 2012 Share Posted December 6, 2012 After reading some of the thoughts from the mets in the NE subforum, they seem to think an east based NAO is better for areas in the midwest... granted we are stuck between the midwest and EC. I'm not sure if they mean MSP or CLE. Hopefully be on the right side of what ever pattern evolves. What is being said on the NE forum, especially by HM, is the chances for a true period of winter will be around mid winter. I agree with HM on that. I also think the period will last for 2-4 weeks before we get into a warmer pattern. I am thinking February (at least the last half) will turn out mild and we will see another "wintery" period sometime in March before it is All Over. During this 2-4 week long period is when we will see the LES really kick in plus a good synoptic snowstorm or two. This winter should not be a wall-to-wall torch like last winter or the 2001 - 2002 winter. That said, that nasty PV has got to move and HM is indicating that the PV will change starting as early as the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 Outside chance at some wrap around snows/lake effect tomorrow night and into Tuesday that could give CLE their first inch. I'm betting CLE will be too far west for any action. After that, who knows how long it'll be. With just 3 weeks to go in the year, it's looking like this will be Cleveland's 3rd warmest year on record. The cool October and November were enough to knock it down from the top spot. Also, 2 years ago today was the last day of the huge 3-4 day lake effect snow event, with the finale primary band in downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Outside chance at some wrap around snows/lake effect tomorrow night and into Tuesday that could give CLE their first inch. I'm betting CLE will be too far west for any action. After that, who knows how long it'll be. With just 3 weeks to go in the year, it's looking like this will be Cleveland's 3rd warmest year on record. The cool October and November were enough to knock it down from the top spot. Also, 2 years ago today was the last day of the huge 3-4 day lake effect snow event, with the finale primary band in downtown. Wrap around snows are hard to come by so we'll see. An inch would seem like a storm at this point. December is looking like a disaster. At least lake temps will be mild for if/when we can get a favorable set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm leaving for southeastern Ohio mid January. The way things are starting to set up, that move for me is in the perfect spot to minimize how much snow I see this winter. Moisture and delta-t's are half decent for a time this evening...but the shear in the lower part of the atmosphere will probably prohibit true lake effect processes. If we see some synoptic moisture hang back it may get enhanced for a few hours this evening before pulling out...maybe enough for a half inch or so in the higher terrain. By tomorrow morning as the heart of the cold moves overhead the winds will become much better aligned (W-E) and inversions will remain near 8k feet or so...but moisture will be lacking. So I'm thinking we may see another flare-up associated with convergance near the eastern lake shore tomorrow morning for a few hours, with potentially up to another inch where banding develops before inversions begin lowering tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I'm leaving for southeastern Ohio mid January. The way things are starting to set up, that move for me is in the perfect spot to minimize how much snow I see this winter. So, what do you see setting up to make you say that. Do you see a gradient pattern as well as lake cutters that, while Detroit, Chicago and even Toledo are getting hammered while the East 2/3rds of the state get a chilly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 So, what do you see setting up to make you say that. Do you see a gradient pattern as well as lake cutters that, while Detroit, Chicago and even Toledo are getting hammered while the East 2/3rds of the state get a chilly rain? Nothing in particular. Just noting that being right on the western edge of the Apps that Athens is even less favored for synoptic snowfalls than Cleveland, and is out of the game for any significant lake effect. I think our best period of winter will be near or after I leave is what I'm getting at, and we've discussed what will likely keep December near or above normal temperature wise in the mid-range thread. We may get lucky and thread the needle and see snow but given the cold dumping in to our west the tendency will be for storms to miss us to the NW over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I think our best period of winter will be near or after I leave is what I'm getting at, and we've discussed what will likely keep December near or above normal temperature wise in the mid-range thread. We may get lucky and thread the needle and see snow but given the cold dumping in to our west the tendency will be for storms to miss us to the NW over the next couple of weeks. Yeah, I have the feeling December is shot; the better winter weather period starting in early/mid January. The GFS ensembles are forecasting an EPO spike but today's plot looks better than yesterday's plot when the +EPO was forecast to rise to a high level and pretty much maintain that level for the next 15 days. Today's EPO/WPO plot: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Looks like we will be seeing some snow as an area of snow over NW OH & E IN moves eastward with the cold air moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Looks like we will be seeing some snow as an area of snow over NW OH & E IN moves eastward with the cold air moving in. What is this frozen precip you speak of?! I'll be anxiously awaiting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Nothing in particular. Just noting that being right on the western edge of the Apps that Athens is even less favored for synoptic snowfalls than Cleveland, and is out of the game for any significant lake effect. I think our best period of winter will be near or after I leave is what I'm getting at, and we've discussed what will likely keep December near or above normal temperature wise in the mid-range thread. We may get lucky and thread the needle and see snow but given the cold dumping in to our west the tendency will be for storms to miss us to the NW over the next couple of weeks. I have many good times in Athens. If you are heading down to OU enjoy! I've got a feeling that other things down there will occupy your time rather than the snow. Euro has a couple fantasy storms in the long range so hopefully December won't be a total washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Yeah, I have the feeling December is shot; the better winter weather period starting in early/mid January. The GFS ensembles are forecasting an EPO spike but today's plot looks better than yesterday's plot when the +EPO was forecast to rise to a high level and pretty much maintain that level for the next 15 days. Today's EPO/WPO plot: Ya, the tendency for convection in the Indian Ocean along with the warming stratosphere in that part of the hemisphere should keep any wild +EPO from being too permanent. Doesn't mean it won't help us stay warm through December though. I have many good times in Athens. If you are heading down to OU enjoy! I've got a feeling that other things down there will occupy your time rather than the snow. Euro has a couple fantasy storms in the long range so hopefully December won't be a total washout. Yes, I am heading down to OU. Snow would be a nice bonus, even though I'm sure I'll be quite busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Ya, the tendency for convection in the Indian Ocean along with the warming stratosphere in that part of the hemisphere should keep any wild +EPO from being too permanent. Doesn't mean it won't help us stay warm through December though. Yes, I am heading down to OU. Snow would be a nice bonus, even though I'm sure I'll be quite busy. Well, don't let that stop you from posting your forecasts in here . We promise to post pics if and when it snows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Well, don't let that stop you from posting your forecasts in here . We promise to post pics if and when it snows again. Good. I was getting worried that at this rate I would forget what 3" of snow looks like Anyways, some light synoptic moisture spreading back in from the southwest with a little lake enhancement also evident over NE Cuyahoga and Lake Counties. Any precip that falls should change to all snow inland by 7pm although along the lake shore it could be a bit tougher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 10, 2012 Author Share Posted December 10, 2012 I was browsing through CLE stats to see what was up with the latest first inch recorded at the airport. It appeared this was January 6th, 1995 (which would have been remarkable), but upon closer examination, the 1994-1995 season featured an inch of snow on December 10-11. It started snowing a few hours before midnight and ended around 1 am. Hence the first 1 inch of snowfall was actually broken into two calendar days. That means last year's first inch of snow on December 17th tied for the latest ever at the airport. I won't hold my breath for an inch at CLE tonight, but we could be looking at ousting 2011 as the latest first inch at CLE. And you thought last year's horrible start to the snow season couldn't get any worse ... I bring you 2012-2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 I was browsing through CLE stats to see what was up with the latest first inch recorded at the airport. It appeared this was January 6th, 1995 (which would have been remarkable), but upon closer examination, the 1994-1995 season featured an inch of snow on December 10-11. It started snowing a few hours before midnight and ended around 1 am. Hence the first 1 inch of snowfall was actually broken into two calendar days. That means last year's first inch of snow on December 17th tied for the latest ever at the airport. I won't hold my breath for an inch at CLE tonight, but we could be looking at ousting 2011 as the latest first inch at CLE. And you thought last year's horrible start to the snow season couldn't get any worse ... I bring you 2012-2013. Its a different animal, but not by much. The same pacific storms crashing onshore in northern BC are happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 There's a nice convergence band sitting right over Cuyahoga County but most of it is falling as rain or a rain/snow mix right now. We can't get boundary layer temps below 35 in mid December. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 There's a nice convergence band sitting right over Cuyahoga County but most of it is falling as rain or a rain/snow mix right now. We can't get boundary layer temps below 35 in mid December. Ugh. Absolutely pouring here about an hour ago. I saw a few flakes mixed in, but it's predominantly rain. I see CLE switched over to a mix on the hourly observation. I jokingly posted 0.3" down, 67.8" to go in the complaint thread. After last winter and this winter's dismal start, 67.8" seems like a hell of a battle for CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 The heavier precip fell as a mix last night as OHWeather mentioned. Other than that, just light dusting on my car top this morning. Wasn't expecting much so no disappointment here. Long range looks awfully stormy, and alot more winterlike so maybe there is hope for a December miracle. Will we be on the good or bad side is the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 What is this frozen precip you speak of?! I'll be anxiously awaiting it. Well, I would have said it was snow...LOL! 24 hrs too late...I picked up about 1/2 inch last night. How about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ya, the tendency for convection in the Indian Ocean along with the warming stratosphere in that part of the hemisphere should keep any wild +EPO from being too permanent. Doesn't mean it won't help us stay warm through December though. Yes, I am heading down to OU. Snow would be a nice bonus, even though I'm sure I'll be quite busy. Looking at the LR models, there is a nasty EPO trough extending from So Cal all the way in Asia. Good thing we will have that - NAO to suppress any torching. I noticed today that the SOI has crashed. What do you think the implications, if any, are? http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Looking at the LR models, there is a nasty EPO trough extending from So Cal all the way in Asia. Good thing we will have that - NAO to suppress any torching. I noticed today that the SOI has crashed. What do you think the implications, if any, are? http://www.longpaddo...30daysoivalues/ Well, if the ENSO ever responds and warms somewhat, that may eventually promote convection east of the dateline and perhaps help weaken the Pacific jet later in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Well, if the ENSO ever responds and warms somewhat, that may eventually promote convection east of the dateline and perhaps help weaken the Pacific jet later in winter. ...Just checked the SST maps and there has been quite a bit of warming over the tropics between 160E to 140W which of course includes the dateline area. This would help the convection in that region. I remember that same area last year had cold SSTAs for most of the winter, and that, I believe, killed any MJO waves that attempted to move east. That's what I think kept the MJO looping between Phases 4 & 5 and the Circle of Death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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