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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread


Trent

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We had some nice busrts of snow yesterday evening. Probably less than 1" so far. Nice to see everything white outside though. CLE seems think the LES will pick back up again this morning. Looks like the heavier band is over on Trent's side of town.

Probably about 0.3" here, enough to coat the ground.

I think this storm is going to bust hard for the snowbelt outside of NW PA. The BUF WRFs just don't show the snow in Ohio. Radar is completely lackluster at the moment. Maybe from Burton northeastward there'll be some 3" totals, but doubtful anyone in Cuyahoga comes close to meeting advisory level snows.

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About half an inch here...light snow continues...nice to see.

I'm not quite sure what CLE was thinking yesterday...the met who wrote the near/short term portions of the disco was saying that the models yesterday were coming in "with a more impressive event and parameters than previously thought." Well, I looked when I got home last night and, well they really hadn't, they just had a met who has cried wolf at LES snow events before at the helm when it was decision time for advisories. We'll see when the snow reports update but it wouldn't surprise me if the higher terrain in Geauga County has 2" or so on the ground and there is a half decent band moving into that area now, so maybe some one will squeeze out 3-4" total there.

Persuing web cams in eastern Cuyahoga County I didn't find any evidence of more than 1" on the ground and unless the bands really shift around a Lake Effect Snow Advisory is going to end up being issued for a storm that didn't drop more than an inch or two on the outlying more suburbs.

Oh well. Tis the season.

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Looks like we picked up a quick dusting...maybe a few tenths of snow with the clipper early this morning. It is nice and white out there now, the lake effect "snow cover" was running awefully thin by yesterday evening.

The full sunshine here has already wiped out the latest dusting. I assume the snowbelt will see its snow gone by evening with full sun and temps creeping up towards 40. I'll be glad to get this first bust of the season out of the way. I have a feeling this year will be another "cry wolf" season with the big one finally coming after multiple wolves have been cried.

The sad thing is that the roads are coated in salt residue and that's not going to get washed away by rain anytime soon. CLE should finish November at 3rd driest with no more than a couple hundredths possible to close out the month.

All in all, this was quite possibly one of the worst/most boring weather months in the past decade.

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The full sunshine here has already wiped out the latest dusting. I assume the snowbelt will see its snow gone by evening with full sun and temps creeping up towards 40. I'll be glad to get this first bust of the season out of the way. I have a feeling this year will be another "cry wolf" season with the big one finally coming after multiple wolves have been cried.

The sad thing is that the roads are coated in salt residue and that's not going to get washed away by rain anytime soon. CLE should finish November at 3rd driest with no more than a couple hundredths possible to close out the month.

All in all, this was quite possibly one of the worst/most boring weather months in the past decade.

Ya, the wooded area behind my house has some white left, but most of the snow quickly melted by early afternoon here.

Very boring month. Sandy made October interesting, but it's just been cool/dry all month. Maybe next month.

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There's a decent chance that all of northern Ohio will see an inch of snow overnight. Models have picked up on some light moisture streaming by. The CLE discussion barely highlights this, but it could give someone in the area another coating. This is probably the last chance for a while.

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CLE has bumped up POPs to 60-70% generally from Findlay-Medina-Auburn-Warren Points south with up to an inch of accumulation in that area. There will be some weak mid-level frontogenesis underneath the right-entrance portion of a strong upper level jet streak, so any moisture will get rung out tonight in the form of light snow.

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At CLE there's never been a November like this one. We will average about 40.3 for the month or nearly -4 of the current normals. Looking at Hopkins, all Novembers colder than 42 had at least 3.5" of snow, with an average of about 8". This will be the first "snowless" cold November at CLE.

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Welp...pretty good consensus on "nothing" to track through at least the end of next week. I've been touting a potential pattern change beginning around next weekend with maybe a cutter pulling in some cold behind it and firing up the lakes--best case...right now it looks like we have to bank on maybe something kind of interesting in 10 days...until then, time to enjoy life outside of snow :lol:

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Welp...pretty good consensus on "nothing" to track through at least the end of next week. I've been touting a potential pattern change beginning around next weekend with maybe a cutter pulling in some cold behind it and firing up the lakes--best case...right now it looks like we have to bank on maybe something kind of interesting in 10 days...until then, time to enjoy life outside of snow :lol:

There always seems to be good consensus for weather that sucks. I kinda feel like the rug is being pulled out from underneath us in December. I know we can make up ground quickly but based on a lot of forecasts I was expecting a cold/snowy December. Now, we are looking at a waste of the first 2 weeks potentially. A potential cold shot followed by warmth. Not exactly what I was envisioning. All of this could change with the next model run of course -- but again, there always seems to be consensus for crap weather. Enjoy the sun and mild temps this weekend!

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There always seems to be good consensus for weather that sucks. I kinda feel like the rug is being pulled out from underneath us in December. I know we can make up ground quickly but based on a lot of forecasts I was expecting a cold/snowy December. Now, we are looking at a waste of the first 2 weeks potentially. A potential cold shot followed by warmth. Not exactly what I was envisioning. All of this could change with the next model run of course -- but again, there always seems to be consensus for crap weather. Enjoy the sun and mild temps this weekend!

If there's a bright side, it's that the warm weather will slow the cooling of Lake Erie.

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Long range from the CLE AFD. Looks like they are going with a series of lows instead of a Lake MI monster...

EXTENDED PATTERN SHAPING UP TO BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW TO A DEEPINING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND SET UP A TRACK FOR A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS THE TYPICAL MID FALL PATTERN WHERE THE STORM SYSTEMS TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK APPEARS IT WILL BE SHUNTED A BIT FURTHER EAST DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS THE STORM SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF EACH OF THE TRACKS. HOWEVER...THIS TREND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH FURTHER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHIFTING OF THE TROUGH. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM AN ALL RAIN TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THEN TO POSSIBLY ALL SNOW IF ENOUGH COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTH BEHIND THE LAST STORM SYSTEM.

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I'd personally favor one of the waves amplifying fairly significantly for Monday over several weak waves...

post-525-0-46216700-1354654619_thumb.gif

Given expected fairly strong ridging over the East Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska we should see a pretty amplified trough coming out of the southwest Sunday into Monday. With very cold air on the west side of a polar vortex dumping into the northern Plains and warm air over the southern and eastern US a very tight baroclinic zone is expected to be in place from the lower Plains east through the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes. This should combine with solid low level inflow off the Gulf to favor a deepening low pressure system in the lower Plains on Sunday.

Given the NAO is just going negative by the timeframe of the expected storm and ridging is in place over the eastern US, assuming the western US/eastern Pac pattern doesn't trend significantly flatter I'd favor the more robust storm solution on Monday with a warm rain and potential strong winds and thunder as the trough would likely go negative tilt before hitting the Mississippi.

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Yeah. We only need about 2.5" of rain at CLE to crack into the top 10 wettest years list again. It will probably come down to the wire; regardless another wet year with a couple dry months tossed in.

CLE is almost on the brink of breaking the longest stretch between one inch snowfalls. If we can make it one more week, we'll do that. However, we might come up a day short from wrap around/LES from the potential midwest storm early next week.

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CLE seems to suggest the storm will take a path into NE OH and NW PA. Blindfolded dart board approach?

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

ZONAL FLOW AT MID WEEK TRANSITIONS INTO A BROAD TROUGH THAT SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH AXIS CAUSES CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW EVENTUALLY FORCES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY USHERING IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

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Ugly long term disco from BUF -

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

MOTHER NATURE WILL TEASE SNOW LOVERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH

CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF

SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. WHILE THIS COULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MANY `FLYS IN THE OINTMENT` (IE.

DRY AIR LOFT/WIND SHEAR/SHORT FETCH) TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN

NUISANCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

LOOKING AT THE BIG...HEMISPHERIC...PICTURE. A BROAD BASED TROUGH

CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL AMPLIFY A BIT SUNDAY

NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF ROBUST SHORTWAVES WILL

DIVE SOUTH FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL

PERSIST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...BUT THE BREVITY AND INSIGNIFICANCE

OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL BE THE RESULT OF A PERSISTENT PACIFIC

MID LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP RIDGING (+PNA) FROM DEVELOPING

ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT EVEN WITH SUCH A TELECONNECTION...THERE

WILL STILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEK WHEN A POOL OF COLD AIR WILL INTENSIFY

WEST OF HUDSON BAY...BUT BY THEN...A PACIFIC BASED FLOW WILL BECOME

RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE COUNTRY.

IN TERMS OF GETTING A COLD AIRMASS OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE INTO OUR

REGION...SEVERAL INGREDIENTS NEED TO COME TOGETHER. ONE CAN THINK OF

IT LIKE A SPORTS TEAM THAT CANNOT WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP BECAUSE THEY

EITHER HAVE A DECENT OFFENSE OR DEFENSE...BUT CAN NEVER SEEM TO GET

THE TWO TOGETHER AT THE SAME TIME.

AS FOR SOME SPECIFICS...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON

SUNDAY. ONE LAST WAVE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND

EVOLVE INTO A SUB 1000MB SFC LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE GUIDANCE

PACKAGES DIFFER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WILL ONLY POINT OUT THAT THIS

LOW WILL EITHER LIFT BY TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST (CLIMATOLOGICALLY

FAVORED SOLUTION)...OR DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT

AND MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A 24 TO 36 HOUR OF MILD AND UNSETTLED

WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN.

SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CHARGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE

OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE

LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP

SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. AGAIN...FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THIS LAKE

EFFECT DOES NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT.

A COLD BUT HIGHLY SHEARED WESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL THEN LEAD TO

SOME FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...WITH

GENERALLY IN THE 30S (RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE).

THE CHILLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT AS

WE PEEK AHEAD TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...A STRONG PACIFIC FLOW

IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN

THE PROCESS.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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Yeah. We only need about 2.5" of rain at CLE to crack into the top 10 wettest years list again. It will probably come down to the wire; regardless another wet year with a couple dry months tossed in.

CLE is almost on the brink of breaking the longest stretch between one inch snowfalls. If we can make it one more week, we'll do that. However, we might come up a day short from wrap around/LES from the potential midwest storm early next week.

I'm willing to bet, given the pattern we're in, that we do not see an inch and that we get our new record.

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