Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[Trent]

Nice to wake up and see "Snow Likely" in the forecast for Saturday!

[NEOH]

Nice to wake up and see "Snow Likely" in the forecast for Saturday!

Looks pretty good for the first lake effect event of the season... short lived but I'll take what I can get at this point.

Accum's will depend alot on what type of banding sets up. Multi bands and accum's will definitely be limited. If we can get a primary band going I don't think the snow will have tough time accumulating at all. It's been in the upper 20's to low 30's every night this week so the ground has cooled considerably.

[NEOH]

Lake temps are still in the mid to upper 40's... -10 at 850 will easily turn the machine on.

[Trent]

Looks pretty good for the first lake effect event of the season... short lived but I'll take what I can get at this point.

Accum's will depend alot on what type of banding sets up. Multi bands and accum's will definitely be limited. If we can get a primary band going I don't think the snow will have tough time accumulating at all. It's been in the upper 20's to low 30's every night this week so the ground has cooled considerably.

The first weekend of November in 2010 featured that I-271 snow band in eastern Cuyahoga County that didn't seem to have much problem accumulating and that was during the day. Temps were marginal for that with accums mostly above 900 feet.

[dta1984]

The first weekend of November in 2010 featured that I-271 snow band in eastern Cuyahoga County that didn't seem to have much problem accumulating and that was during the day. Temps were marginal for that with accums mostly above 900 feet.

Haha i remember that; that was the day i moved here lol. Start of an awesome winter too!

[NEOH]

The first weekend of November in 2010 featured that I-271 snow band in eastern Cuyahoga County that didn't seem to have much problem accumulating and that was during the day. Temps were marginal for that with accums mostly above 900 feet.

For some reason I don't remember that... must be getting old because I live almost right along 271.

Yeah, I don't think the snow will have any problem accumulating. If anything the bands would probably become more cellular in nature during the day which may limit things, but ramp up at night when the coldest 850's move in.

[LakeEffectOH]

It's that time of the year again...Here's to more wintery wx (much more) than we had last year. Most signs are pointing to plenty more cold and snow for the next few months!

[OHweather]

The GFS now has 500mb temps dipping just below -30C Saturday...which is good for nearly a 40C differential between the lake and that level of the atmosphere. Things have trended colder and more unstable with recent models for Saturday.

Starting to get a bit excited.

Also, don't want to short change the potential for an overrunning frozen precip event Monday-Tuesday of next week. Others and I have been posting about this in the long range thread, but with energy coming out of the west and a tight gradient setting up overhead, and shallow but arctic airmass pressing into the northern US thanks to a displaced polar vortex, the overrunning potential is there:

The Canadian and yesterday's Euro showed a cutter into the western lakes, but with pretty good agreement on a -NAO in combination with the descending polar vortex, I think the more suppressed and less amplified solution is more likely at this time.

[FL510]

The deterministic and ensemble mean for the ECMWF from Tuesday 12z show 850 temps of about 6 C Friday morning, -11 C Saturday morning and warm air advection Saturday night with 850 temps rising to -9 Sunday morning.

[OHweather]

The deterministic and ensemble mean for the ECMWF from Tuesday 12z show 850 temps of about 6 C Friday morning, -11 C Saturday morning and warm air advection Saturday night with 850 temps rising to -9 Sunday morning.

Yeah, the duration of this event won't be on our side. Winds won't really align till after 6z Saturday and ridging begins to really lower the inversion heights around 0z Sunday. Could be a 12-18 hour period of decent lake effect though, which can deposit several inches if we get a primary band to set up.

[NEOH]

It's that time of the year again...Here's to more wintery wx (much more) than we had last year. Most signs are pointing to plenty more cold and snow for the next few months!

Good to see you back. I've got a feeling this winter will be much better... it won't take much! Hopefully we can string together a few decent LES events and general snowfalls.

[Trent]

Nice discussion from CLE:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A DECENT LAKE EFFECT SHSN EVENT STILL LOOKS IN ORDER FOR SAT INTO

SAT NIGHT TAPERING TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SUN MORNING AS RIDGE OF

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY STOP THE

PRECIP THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA WITH

MOISTURE ARRIVING MONDAY.

Should be a few inches at least for some folks. The GFS in its low resolution this far out shows a lot of moisture. NAM should be in range by tomorrow and then we wait to fine tune the details come Saturday. But I bet CLE records its first inch of snowfall on Saturday.

We might also have our first system snow to track next week as well.

[Entropy]

What the heck was up with this ob from YNG earlier today? Sand? WTF? With calm winds and no sand for hundreds of mile? Did a plane take off and kick up dust or something?

METAR KYNG 202151Z COR 00000KT 9SM SA FEW000 SCT110 BKN130 09/01 A3010 RMK AO2 SLP199 VIS SE-SW 2 1/2 SAND T00940011

[NEOH]

Nice discussion from CLE:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A DECENT LAKE EFFECT SHSN EVENT STILL LOOKS IN ORDER FOR SAT INTO

SAT NIGHT TAPERING TO MAINLY FLURRIES BY SUN MORNING AS RIDGE OF

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY STOP THE

PRECIP THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA WITH

MOISTURE ARRIVING MONDAY.

Should be a few inches at least for some folks. The GFS in its low resolution this far out shows a lot of moisture. NAM should be in range by tomorrow and then we wait to fine tune the details come Saturday. But I bet CLE records its first inch of snowfall on Saturday.

We might also have our first system snow to track next week as well.

Definitely a few inches... possibly more. Looks like the winds start out WSW'erly then come around to the NW so a decent band should be going by the time it pushes on shore. Still a few days out so we will have to see how things change. But right now things look good.

The system out in fantasy land is certainly interesting as well.

[Trent]

BUF had a nice discussion this morning. Flow favors their southernmost counties into our area with possible advisory criteria snows.

Given all the lake effect rain events we've had this fall, it'd be a shame for this to peter out as we get closer to Saturday. NAM hasn't shown much yet, but it's still too small scale for these to really catch on yet.

[FL510]

Here are a few maps from the 00Z/ECMWF deterministic run. Looks like the probability for lake effect increases significantly after 00Z/Saturday when the wind veers enough and 850 hPa temperatures drop below -8 C. The coldest they get for the event is about -11 C and then warm air advection starts Saturday night. Negatives are the low moves quickly and fills, it is already near Hudson's Bay Saturday morning. The boundary layer wind never veers more north than 300 degrees and the flow is never that strong as the pressure gradient never gets steep. Probably a few inches, especially in the primary areas (northern Geauga), but doesn't look like a really impressive event. We'll take what we can get, though...

ECMWF surface 00Z/Saturday

ECMWF 850 hPa 15Z/Saturday

The low for the next event looks too far west, passing right over Cleveland on Tuesday the 27th. Most of the event looks like rain, till the tail end:

ECMWF surface 18Z/Tuesday (the 27th)

Another shot at lake effect (perhaps the tail end of the storm will end as some synoptic snow with cold air advection), but again not the best lake effect setup with a very weak ridge to our west, however for next week the western Atlantic is a bit more blocked and amplified, so perhaps the arctic air will stay longer?

ECMWF 850 hPa Wednesday the 28th

[LakeEffectOH]

Good to see you back. I've got a feeling this winter will be much better... it won't take much! Hopefully we can string together a few decent LES events and general snowfalls.

Thanks! While the Pacific looks not too great b/c of the continuing - PDO, there is plenty of cold air over western Canada and the snowpack is building which means that the cold air supply there will hold in the meantime. Also it looks like the AO/NAO are tending to be more negative as opposed to being ragingly positive as they were last year. The biggest concern I have is the vortex retrograding from Canada back into Alaska which would destroy the cold air supply over Canada by blasting Pacific air over Canada.

However, I don't see that happening anytime soon as the much talked about Aleutian Ridge allows the cold air to congregate over W. Canada. Now we need to pop a PNA ridge to send the cold air into the Lower 48 and that may happen but a really +PNA ridge may be hampered by the ongoing -PDO that will continue to try and help suppress heights over the NE Pacific and the GOA.

Doesn't mean that we won't have any good snow events as a good -NAO would help us out...especially if the -NAO is more west based (HP over Greenland).

[OHweather]

Nice analysis guys!

I think some of us will see some light accumulations on Saturday, but the best chances for a few inches or more appear to be in NW PA, where Lake Huron may help out. I'll look deeper into the lake effect tomorrow night when some of the hi-res models start seeing out that far, and when I likely am growing bored of sitting around with family.

The early week system still may track far enough south. The 12z Euro and now 0z GFS are suppressed and weak with the storm and are borderline for some front end snow with another shot at pretty cold air behind the system. If the polar vortex doesn't descend as much as previously thought early next week, there may be more room for a stronger storm to cut west...however, if the vortex descends the flow will speed up and become harder to buckle, making a suppressed track more likely. Still a lot of spread on the models with the Monday-Tuesday system.

[Trent]

Hi-Res models slowly getting into range. This would be the tail end of the run through just 6z Saturday. Seems some bands want get going:

[OHweather]

Ok…here we go, for the first time in the 2012-13 winter season…

A potent shortwave is diving into the Upper Midwest and will amplify significantly Friday and Saturday over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeastern US in response to ridging developing in the western US and a quickly falling NAO. However, the NAO will not be strongly negative and western ridging will be weakening, so the trough will be relatively transient in nature. Regardless, it will tap very cold air over Canada and bring the first airmass conducive to notable lake effect snow fall over the lower Great Lakes beginning tomorrow and continuing through Saturday.

850mb temperatures will quickly fall to near -8C by 0z Saturday which should change any precip over to snow late Friday afternoon. 850mb temps will continue to fall to -10C to -12C over portions of western Lake Erie Friday Night into Saturday, with 850mb temps beginning to warm after 0z Sunday.

With lake temps in the upper 40s, this is a nearly 20C lake to 850mb temp differential, which indicates that steep low level lapse rates will be in place.

Models are projecting 500mb temps to dip to -30C to -35C for a few hours late Friday night into Saturday morning, which is greater than a 40C temp differential between the lake and about 18,000 feet. This is near the magical value for potential thundersnow, however, with a stout inversion near 700mb progged by most modeling, I’m not sure we’ll see lake effect quite robust enough to generate thunder/lightning:

Note how when adjusting the forecast skew-t (18z NAM valid 12z Saturday, along the lake shore east of Cleveland) for the lake water temp (the technique I have been taught, while perhaps wrong, is to take the forecast temp/dew point on the sounding and to account for the lake water temp, split the difference between the sounding and lake water), that the inversions climb to just about 10k feet or 700mb. While high enough for lake effect, this makes me wonder whether or not we’ll be able to see thundersnow, as there is a fairly stout inversion just above 700mb throughout much of the event. Either way, lake induced instability will be moderate (up to 500 j/Kg Saturday morning) for this event with moderately high inversions, but nothing off the wall.

When looking at moisture through the event, the 18z NAM shows high (greater than 80%) relative humidity values from near the surface through nearly 700mb from late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, with the atmosphere slowly drying from the top down Saturday afternoon. This signals that there should be enough moisture for lake effect Friday night into Saturday, with marginal moisture through Saturday evening. After 0z Sunday, the moisture is confined to the lower most portions of the atmosphere, which likely wouldn’t be sufficient for more than light snow showers/flurries over the higher terrain inland.

Models (NAM shown above, for KCLE) do show modest to briefly decent lift between the surface and near 800mb through much of the event, with the strongest period of lift projected to be the first half of Friday night. This would indicate lake effect potential, although relatively modest, through Saturday evening.

Wind direction is fairly well agreed upon by models at this time. The expectation is the flow will go from near westerly late Friday afternoon to more WNW Friday night. Initially it was thought the flow may try to go more NWrly, however the trough is coming in a bit less amplified than earlier thought and the associated surface low pressure will track a bit farther north than expected, which will bring in less of a northerly component to the winds in our area.

This kind of flow does suggest potential primary band development, especially Friday evening, with the flow becoming marginal (a bit too close to NW) for a primary band by Saturday morning.

When comparing the NAM (left) and ECM (right) and looking for convergence of the low level winds, which would potentially allow a primary band to develop, both do show an area of convergence for a few hours Friday evening, mainly west/south of Cleveland as the winds turn more towards the NW. However, there are no signs of a primary band after 6z Saturday on either model. There is also some convergence briefly, mainly from Cleveland east, Saturday night as ridging builds in and turns the flow more towards the WSW over land. However, moisture and instability will be diminishing at this point.

So, when putting it all together, I expect:

As wrap around moisture briefly clips northern OH Friday evening, lake effect/enhanced precip should break out. This will occur between 5-8pm. The initial flow will be westerly to WNWrly, with the focus being the primary Snow Belt. As the winds back more NW with time late Friday evening, there may be a primary band with moderate snows that swings south into the secondary Snow Belt, before dissipating.

After the convergence weakens, I only expect scattered light to briefly moderate snow showers to persist over the primary and to some extend secondary Snow Belt after midnight Friday night through very early Saturday. This whole regime may drop 1-2” in the higher terrain of the secondary and primary belts Friday night.

Saturday morning another mid-level shortwave will come through and likely enhance snowfall. The focus of this shortwave will just glance northern OH, with the best mid-level energy hitting NW PA and western NY. However, we may see snow coverage increase across the region Saturday morning. Saturday afternoon I again expect just scattered and disorganized light to briefly moderate snow showers in the primary and secondary belts. This regime during the day on Saturday will likely drop an additional general inch or so of snow with potentially locally up to 2” in the higher terrain east of Cleveland. In NW PA, the snow may be much more consistent and heavy on Saturday, where a few inches may fall.

There may be a brief flare up of convergence Saturday evening, but the moisture and instability will quickly diminish Saturday evening, so in general I expect additional accums of 1” or less Saturday night, mainly east of Cleveland. The higher terrain of NW PA may ring out up to 2” more Saturday night.

[NEOH]

Nice forecast. Looking forward to our first LES event of the season. I'm guessing the flow will start out more WSW'erly than the models are showing... something with the shoreline configuration. Regardless it looks good for primary band development.

[FL510]

Fantastic analysis OHWeather!

[FL510]

OHWeather (and others),

Have any thoughts on a potential low for early next week? The Friday morning HPC discussion discarded both the ECMWF and GFS, tending to go with the UKMET for the next 5 days. The ECMWF is very progressive, shows no surface feature and has no phasing (fair weather for us), while the GFS shows some phasing and has a fair amount of overrunning type precipitation over the Ohio Valley.

The prelimary HPC graphics from this morning are quite bullish (going against the ECMWF and GFS) and have a 1010 hPa low near KLEX Tuesday morning.

I've got to say, a gutsy forecast for the HPC for next week. It's rare they go against model consensus and ensembles.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

305 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 27 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 30 2012

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN

====================

A REPETITION OF THE PATTERN SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS

EXPECTED, WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN

PACIFIC, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FORMING ACROSS THE WEST AND

PLAINS, AND RENEWED TROUGHING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,

THOUGH THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE LOWER 48 IS EXPECTED TO

BE COMPOSED OF BROAD FEATURES OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE, WHICH

LEADS TO QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE COUNTRY.

MODEL PREFERENCE

================

MODEL ISSUES ARE SIGNIFICANT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES

VERY FAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY, AND

EVEN THOUGH ITS PATTERN ALOFT RESEMBLES THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION

LATE NEXT WEEK, ITS PRESSURE PATTERN HAS BEEN SO CONTAMINATED BY

THIS QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,

ITS SOLUTION COULD NOT BE USED. THE 00Z GFS BROKE DOWN THE

WESTERN RIDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY USING A FORMERLY CLOSED LOW TO

DO SO, AND DOES NOT CONVERGE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE

UNTIL DECEMBER 1ST, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT USED EITHER. THE 00Z

CANADIAN SHARPENS THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE

PLAINS EARLY ON, AND SENDS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH SHOWS LITTLE

RESPECT TO THE COOL AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE (NO OBVIOUS COLD

AIR DAMMING). THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE

12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE TO BOOT, AND CONSIDERING THE

RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW, ITS SOLUTION SHOULD BE QUICKER AND

POSSIBLY WEAKER HERE, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT BE USED EITHER.

PER THE ABOVE, THE PRESSURES USED A 00Z UKMET TEMPLATE THROUGH

TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z UKMET SOLUTION WAS NOT

PERFECT EITHER, SHOWING QUICKER PROGRESSION THAN ANTICIPATED BY

THE ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,

SO SHIFTED ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARDS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE

CLUSTERING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THE DETERMINISTIC

MODEL SPREAD THIS PERIOD, THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS

THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES, AND THE LACK OF AN OVERALL GOOD

DETERMINISTIC MODEL CHOICE, CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS

PREFERENCE.

ROTH

What is odd to me is the HPC writes in the first paragraph the pattern is progressive and not amplified, then they go on to choose the most amplified model and discard the model consensus. We shall see!

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

[Trent]

With just 0.02" overnight, CLE is still poised to have one of its driest Novembers on record. We sit at just 0.73" for the month or third driest. If the LES tonight and tomorrow stays confined to the snowbelt and the Tuesday storm is a dud as the euro suggests, then we'll easily maintain 3rd driest. We can still afford 0.39" through the end of the month to tie with 10th driest. Quite the turn around from October. And despite the dry November, fall 2012 will still go down as the second wettest fall on record.

[Trent]

Today was the first time I've checked out the BUF WRF models since last winter. Let's just say they aren't impressive at all unless you're in NW PA.

[OHweather]

Regarding the lake-effect...there's certainly disagreement between the Hi-res NAM and BUF WRFS...and the hi-res NCEP models (NMM, ARW)...

The NAM and BUF WRFs both for the most part show little to nothing in Ohio...maybe an inch in parts of Geauga County...with the NMM and ARW both show a quarter to a half inch plus of liquid into the higher elevations of Cuyahoga County...so one camp says nothing and one camp argues for a potential lake effect snow advisory for Cuyahoga.

There are a few parameters I like to use to determine if significant snow will fall:

1. Will the duration be long or short? Fairly short in this instance.

2. Will the winds be veering? Yes, although they'll settle down a little on Saturday, however by then the event will be half over.

3. Will the wind direction favor primary banding? Maybe for a few hours tonight on a W-E flow, however after that, no.

4. Short or long fetch? Long but becoming mediocre to short on Saturday as the flow goes more NW.

5. 850mb temp to water temp differential greater than 13C and high (80%+) relative humidities between the sfc and 700mb? Yes.

6. Do inversions extend above 700mb, and is there significant moisture above 700mb? No.

7. Shortwaves to enhance snowfall? Some wraparound moisture this evening, a weak shortwave focused towards NW PA Saturday morning.

8. Upstream lakes help? Lake Huron into PA.

So, the short duration event with veering winds and likely only a brief primary band tonight argue against significant snowfall in NE OH. If we had synoptic moisture in place or higher-inversions or mid-level moisture, I would be more enthusiastic about the NW flow upslope snows producing in the higher-terrain, however we won't have either.

But, with moderate lake-induced instability and good moisture beneath about an average height inversion, I think we see a period of moderate snows this evening under any banding, and perhaps a brief uptick tomorrow morning as the next shortwave comes through. Maybe good for a quick inch or so of snow in each instance where the banding occurs. Otherwise, it just looks like scattered snow showers that don't really pile up, so you get the potential for a total like 3-4" jackpot (likely in Geauga County) for NE Ohio with 1-2" or so elsewhere.

The only way I see those numbers being exceeded is if primary banding holds on for longer than anticipated or we get more mid level moisture...usually if we see good mid-level moisture in place on a NW flow it will get rung out well over the higher terrain.

[OHweather]

When it comes to the early week system...I believe I posted here and in the long range thread a few days ago that I was favoring a supressed storm track over a cutter...due to the trough axis being a bit too far east and the suppressive nature of the cold air coming down...and right now it looks like the models are trending that direction.

There is some room for whatever system is present to round the corner and go negative tilted over the Apps...with evidence of an active sub-tropical jet above over the southern US. However, if we don't see the northern stream shortwave amplify enough to interact with the sub-tropical jet, we likely don't see much of anything with moisture remaining to our south.

The most amplified solutions would still change northern OH over to rain...the supressed ones miss us to the south. Right now I'd lean towards suppression with some chances at light synoptic snows with some lake effect possible on the backside Tuesday night into Wednesday. It all appears to be a matter of whether or not the incoming shortwave diving into the Plains Sunday into Monday amplifies enough to interact with the sub-tropical jet and bring moisture northward. Given the trough quickly building off the west coast and associated ridging over the western and central US, I'd favor the shortwave not amplifying much until it is rather far to our east...meaning we don't see much of anything significant.

[Trent]

And the first Lake Effect Snow Advisory of the season is issued with the first flakes flying as I type:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

325 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND USHERED IN MUCH

COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE

SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND BRING WITH IT SOME LIGHT SNOW. ONCE THE

TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME WELL

ALIGNED TO PRODUCE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE

SEASON.

OHZ011>014-023-089-PAZ001>003-240430-

/O.NEW.KCLE.LE.Y.0004.121123T2300Z-121125T1200Z/

CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-TRUMBULL-

ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...

JEFFERSON...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

325 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE

EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED

TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES

EXPECTED TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3

INCHES IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS

THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE

LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

[OHweather]

I don't agree with Cuyahoga being in the advisory and am not sure things will be as exciting as CLE thinks...

Snow showers off of lower lake Michigan are lac-luster right now wouldn't be shocked if we see things become rather weak and disorganized later tonight as the synoptic moisture pulls out and the flow becomes too far NW for a primary band.

[Trent]

Decent snow here right now, doubtful it will last much longer. But it's really coming down and combine that with 30-40 mph winds and it feels like winter.