Speedskater Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Storm Dirt? Did anyone else notice the large amount of dirt or dust dropped by the storm? Everything is covered by a light colored dust (windows & cars). We are just 400 feet from the lake so the wind must have carried it a long, long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 4, 2012 Author Share Posted November 4, 2012 So far my temperature extremes this month have been 36-41. Can't wait for the clouds to break. Yeah. Clouds and rain = minimal diurnal swing. Look at CLE: Oct 27: 50/46 Oct 28: 48/41 Oct 29: 43/41 Oct 30: 47/42 Oct 31: 43/40 Nov 1: 43/37 Nov 2: 42/39 Nov 3: 42/39 Nov 4: 40/36 (prelim) So out of the last 9 days, CLE has more or less been stuck in the low 40s. That's an average daily diurnal spread of just 4 degrees for the past 9 days ... quite impressive. I just hope we aren't wasting all of our cold departures this fall. Lake Erie temperatures are sliding like a rock. The next major trough should be the one that finally produces our first lake effect snow event, now we just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Another morning of OVC and drizzle. Day 11 in a row of precip. The statistical guidance has been much too optimistic to break this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The solid overcast continues. We had our first legit snowshowers yesterday morning which was nice to see. Looks like the pattern finally starts to break tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There has been enough low level moisture trapped to sqeeze out very light flurries here off and on all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There has been enough low level moisture trapped to sqeeze out very light flurries here off and on all afternoon. The ridge axis passes east of CLE tonight, winds finally shift to a direction other than NW or N, even though the inversion persists the stratus layer should break up, possibly allowing many of us a chance at our first freeze. Hopefully tomorrow will be the first day in 11 days that the snow-belt receives any meaningful sunshine. The SW side of the stratus layer has been slowly shrinking this afternoon and pilot reports around CLE indicate it isn't as thick as it has been the last several days. CLE AFD: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SOLID STRATUS DECK CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES FROM TOLEDO... SOUTH TO FINDLAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH KNOX COUNTY. THIS LINE HAS HELD FAST THROUGH THE DAY BUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BELIEVE WE WILL FINALLY SEE A CHANGE. SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT HAS HELD CLOUDS IN PLACE THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINED IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH FLOW FROM THE NORTH OFF THE LAKE MOISTURE CONTINUED TO BE SUPPLIED. THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT 925MB WINDS WILL CHANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN ADDITION UPWARD VV UNDER THE INVERSION WILL CHANGE TO SUBSIDENCE. BELIEVE THESE THINGS WILL AID IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUDS. ALREADY THERE HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL EROSION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PA WITH THINNING EVIDENT FROM PITTSBURGH AREA WEST INTO EASTERN OHIO. WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SUPPLIED FROM THE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE WIND SHIFT. TIMING OBVIOUSLY IS THE ISSUE. WILL ALLOW THE DECK TO ERODE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS NORTHEAST FOR A CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO CLEAR. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AND COLDER THAN GUIDANCE WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THOUGH THE NIGHT FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ya, I feel like this happened several times last fall/winter as well...an inversion and northerly flow trapping moisture in the low levels and keeping skies cloudy days longer than forecast. Looks like we'll make up for all these clouds as we head towards the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Blue skies, sunshine and temps in the upper 20's this morning. Nice change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The last time we saw the Sun and clear skies was October 25th, but the temperature was 79°F that day. The one in the blue tee-shirt is my avatar. October 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Nice pic! It feels like we went from late summer/early fall weather (almost looks summer like in your picture) to late fall weather in a blink as soon as that cold front came through. We'll see a nice period of weather from the end of this week into the beginning of next week. The models are showing a major trough pulling northeast out of the western US and trying to take on a negative tilt...and this may result in a storm in portions of this subforum, although we would be on the warm side...0z Euro lost the storm but the GFS and Canadian still have it. With this type of trough moving out of the west, it's something to watch: After this storm threat uncertainty really increases...although there is some agreement on a brief cold shot as the the trough shears out and heads NE and clips us...potentially enough for a brief period of lake effect near the middle of next week... A strong Aleutian ridge/-PNA will continue to drop a ton of high-amplitude energy into the western US. There are some hints at a potential more wintry threat to this area (or areas not too far north/west of here) around the 17th of the month...the reason I say this is the models are trying to bring out another piece of energy around mid-month, with what's left of next week's "storm" acting as a bit of a block and causing the NAO to fall to near neutral. If a strong piece of energy does eject eastward around mid-month, it may be able to stay farther south. However, right now it's a low probability event as we need everything to line up well...from next week's storm being strong enough to act as some kind of a block to a potent piece of energy moving out of the west around mid-month. The 0z Euro holds the energy back over the southwest...the GFS shears out the energy and doesn't do much with it and allows a more zonal flow to set up over our area...and the 0z Canadian was trying to do something at the end of its run. But like I said longg way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Great write up as usual OHWeather. To see the sun today was so nice. Even with almost no leaves left Chagrin Falls was so colorful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 CLE had their first freeze yesterday, which was about a week later than usual, but given the extreme cloudiness of October, not surprising. I actually had my first freeze this morning here along the lakeshore, which seems to be about normal to perhaps a few days earlier than normal. Lake Erie temperatures continue to run 5 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 8, 2012 Share Posted November 8, 2012 Recent modeling isn't showing next week's trough taking on a negative tilt until it gets near the Mississippi...which is getting close the the "happy zone" for Northern Ohio: The models all respond by showing some kind of wave of low pressure riding up the front Monday-Tuesday ish. Given the raging +NAO, I think any storm will take the western track, probably near or west of the Cleveland area, if it develops. If we don't see a true storm and just a weak wave of low pressure on the front we may be game for light synoptic snows this far east. The bigger potential lies to our west. As we look forward to my next fantasy storm "idea," with the next shortwave coming out of the west, this initial image shows some promise: However, when examining closer, one can see that the polar branch of the jet stream is about to get as tight and unlikely to buckle as ever...with the AO raging +, the NAO, after briefly dipping to near neutral as the early week trough progresses eastward getting ready to rise again, and the much feared Gulf of Alaska low making a return. Thus, it looks like we will see a potent...but gradually filling piece of sub-tropical jet energy moving out of the southwest near mid-week next week with little potential for phasing/northern stream involvement, and quickly diminishing cold air over the northeast US. So basically, to see anything wintry from the next shortwave in the lower lakes/upper OV late next week or perhaps next weekend, we would need the shortwave ejecting out of the southwest to fill as slowly as possible and move east as quickly as possible while there is still a little cold air to tap. A stronger storm early next week would also lower the NAO a smidge more and draw in a little more cold air into the area. Right now the GFS is too warm but does have precip from this feature reaching the area near the end of next week...the Euro remains slow in ejecting the energy out of the southwest...and last night's 0z Canadian was interesting, but right now appears to be a low probability/everything would need to line up perfectly solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 9, 2012 Author Share Posted November 9, 2012 Today will be the first day above 50 since October 27th. To go almost 13 days in a row with temps below 50 this time of year is just incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Looks like some minor LES today. I see a few bands over the lake starting to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yep, here it is. Not too impressive but nice to know it's cold enough for snow, probably down to the shore: The models all show the winds going more NWrly by noon and show the convergence pushing inland through much of Cuyahoga/Geauga counties. Satellite shows the stratus extending all the way back to lake Michigan right now so despite the very dry mid levels I do think we'll have just enough moisture to ring out some light flurries/snow showers through the afternoon. However, I think things will stay on the light side and don't think any notable accumulations will occur in NE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Yeah. Some flurries downtown at the moment. Would be a shame to waste half a November with significant negative departures and no accumulating snow to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 That band got its act together in a hurry. Not extreme by lake effect standards but a large area of 20-25dBZ extending from just north of Cleveland to the eastern lakeshore. I don't think we have the moisture for this to really overperform but it looks like the stars are aligning for a dusting, especially along the lakeshore from Cleveland east. Band is also slowly sagging south. Looks like flurries have made it as far south as Beachwood out towards Chargrin already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 That band got its act together in a hurry. Not extreme by lake effect standards but a large area of 20-25dBZ extending from just north of Cleveland to the eastern lakeshore. I don't think we have the moisture for this to really overperform but it looks like the stars are aligning for a dusting, especially along the lakeshore from Cleveland east. Band is also slowly sagging south. Looks like flurries have made it as far south as Beachwood out towards Chargrin already. A few flakes coming down in Chagrin but that's about it. This would be a great band with more moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 A few flakes coming down in Chagrin but that's about it. This would be a great band with more moisture to work with. Ya, flurries have been in the air in Highland Hills since I got here at 10. Nice to see before the pattern takes a dump through at least Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Todays flizzard. From start to more or less finish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 It was nice to see those "wisps of snow" blowing across the road last night leaving downtown, even if it was just a trace. Lake Erie surface temperatures continue to plunge, so I'm thinking the odds of any mix type event near the shore should be slim as we head into December. We are running 4.9 degrees below normal so far this month, with about half the month gone. Safe to say that November should end up below normal when all said and done, but will we have any accumulating snow to show for the negative departures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 It was nice to see those "wisps of snow" blowing across the road last night leaving downtown, even if it was just a trace. Lake Erie surface temperatures continue to plunge, so I'm thinking the odds of any mix type event near the shore should be slim as we head into December. We are running 4.9 degrees below normal so far this month, with about half the month gone. Safe to say that November should end up below normal when all said and done, but will we have any accumulating snow to show for the negative departures? Looks like we will have to wait until after Thanksgiving for any shot at snow. Long range GFS and Euro show colder temps arriving later in the month. It would be nice to benefit from the "warmer" lake temps for an early season LES event. The western basin is cooling quickly. They've had much colder nights out to the west which is doing the work on the lake temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Although the flow is more or less zonal for the next 2 weeks, the ECMWF operational shows a low pressure moving to our northwest 10 days from now, with a lot of warm air advection several days after Thanksgiving. No arctic air in this neck of the woods for the foreseeable future it would appear. Enjoying the sunny and dry weather...Sandy must have removed a lot of energy from the atmosphere on this side of the planet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 I didn't realize we were so close to racking up another top 10 wettest year. We only need 3.58" through the end of the year to crack the top 10 wettest years list (Thanks Sandy!). Basically we just need to average slightly below normal precip through the end of the year to hit that mark. November looks dry, so it'll be up to December to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I didn't realize we were so close to racking up another top 10 wettest year. We only need 3.58" through the end of the year to crack the top 10 wettest years list (Thanks Sandy!). Basically we just need to average slightly below normal precip through the end of the year to hit that mark. November looks dry, so it'll be up to December to do it. Outside of this past summer... we haven't had many back to back dry months so I'm thinking we have a good shot at another top 10. What a nice weekend... Now that Thanksgiving is here hopefully that will be it for the nice weather. Little bit of lake effect potential showing up in fanstasy land for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Early signs are pointing towards our first shot at (legitimate, accumulating, more than flurries) lake effect snow event this weekend... A very strong piece of energy is going to come crashing into the Northwest US Wednesday into Thursday...a transient period of weak western US ridging will develop in response to the trough pinned south of the Aleutian high off the western N. American coast. This will combine with a desending polar vortex and quickly sinking NAO to allow the energy to eventually amplify over the Great Lakes/Northeast region as we head into the weekend: This trough will tap some of the very cold air that will be dumping into Canada much of this week thanks to the cross-polar flow created by the Aleutian ridge...and will amplify in the right spot to hit us with some seasonably cool air...which in late November usually results in snow around these parts. Early indications are, when averaging out the models and taking an average of the OP ECM which seems too amplified with the trough and the OP GFS which seems too progressive with the trough...and take account for the ensembles...that we will see 850mb temps drop to around -8C Friday night before beginning to rise Saturday night with a cyclonic and somewhat moist west to northwest flow. This should be good for our first accumulating snow event in Ohio. As always this far out...it is much too early to determine whether the wind will blow from the west or more north of west...whether the airmass will be moisture rich or just marginally moist...and if the 850mb temps will drop a few more degress ala the more amped up Euro/Canadian solutions or if the crazy old GFS is right and the coldest air misses us to our east. But some potential for a few inches of snow is there. Right now my concerns are more about the pattern not allowing for the trough to quite amplify as much as the models are showing, given that we are still in a very zonal pattern and the pieces are just beginning to fall into place for perhaps an interesting event in the first half of December...however, given the GFS is on the more progressive end of the guidance yet is still just cold enough for a lake effect event, and the Euro is consistently deeper with the trough and a bit colder, I don't think we'll see this trend so progressive that no lake effect occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Good analysis. CLE also mentioned it in their AFD. I'm glad it's hitting early in the weekend as it should be easy "to chase" any bands that do develop. Considering it's been about 8 months or so since we last saw an inch of snow fall, I'll gladly drive 15 miles on a Saturday to see a 3" lake effect snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FL510 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Good analysis. CLE also mentioned it in their AFD. I'm glad it's hitting early in the weekend as it should be easy "to chase" any bands that do develop. Considering it's been about 8 months or so since we last saw an inch of snow fall, I'll gladly drive 15 miles on a Saturday to see a 3" lake effect snow band. Looks like some snow here in Chagrin for Saturday. The flow will be cyclonic with a weak short-wave upstream in Ontario, so there should be plenty of moisture. However, I wonder how much will accumulate? Surface temperatures may be above freezing most of the day with soil temperature also above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Good analysis. CLE also mentioned it in their AFD. I'm glad it's hitting early in the weekend as it should be easy "to chase" any bands that do develop. Considering it's been about 8 months or so since we last saw an inch of snow fall, I'll gladly drive 15 miles on a Saturday to see a 3" lake effect snow band. Thanks. Ya, it's been a long stretch between accumulating snowfall. The GFS has trended towards the more amped up/colder Euro the last two runs, and the Euro ensembles also looked more like the op with 850mb temps near -10C by Saturday morning. Good trends but still time for things to waffle for a few more days. Looks like some snow here in Chagrin for Saturday. The flow will be cyclonic with a weak short-wave upstream in Ontario, so there should be plenty of moisture. However, I wonder how much will accumulate? Surface temperatures may be above freezing most of the day with soil temperature also above freezing. With 850mb temps hitting their coldest before sunrise Saturday (near -10C on most models now), I think we'll get to or below freezing Friday night. If lake effect is ongoing temps won't rise much above the low 30s in the Snow Belt on Saturday with 850mb temps of -10C and clouds in place. Exception being near the lake where things may be a tad warmer (maybe mid 30s) which could limit accums there. But again I don't want to talk too specifically yet. I definitely want to make sure the 6z GFS verifies these trends before declaring that CLE will hoist their first lake effect snow advisories of the season this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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