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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread


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Yeah, this storm had very little variation for these parts for almost a week out.

The rain really came down. IMBY I had a little over 5 inches since Friday evening.

Looks like CLE is at 8.91" for the month. We'll see how the wrap around unfolds, but that should increase to the low to mid 9 inch range would place it in the top 5 for all time wettest any months.

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All I can say is wow. If you thought last fall's record breaking rain was impressive, just wait a year. Not only did we just have the wettest October on record, but now the second wettest of any month.

1 11.05 September 1996

X 9.87 October 2012 through 6 am Oct 31

2 9.77 June 1902

3 9.5 October 1954

4 9.3 September 1878

5 9.14 May 1989

6 9.12 July 1992

7 9.1 September 1926

8 9.06 June 1972

9 9.03 August 2007

10 8.96 August 1975

11 8.8 November 1985

12 8.59 December 1990

13 8.31 March 1913

14 8.3 August 1971

15 8.3 September 2011

16 8.13 July 1912

17 8.07 June 1881

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All I can say is wow. If you thought last fall's record breaking rain was impressive, just wait a year. Not only did we just have the wettest October on record, but now the second wettest of any month.

1 11.05 September 1996

X 9.87 October 2012 through 6 am Oct 31

2 9.77 June 1902

3 9.5 October 1954

4 9.3 September 1878

5 9.14 May 1989

6 9.12 July 1992

7 9.1 September 1926

8 9.06 June 1972

9 9.03 August 2007

10 8.96 August 1975

11 8.8 November 1985

12 8.59 December 1990

13 8.31 March 1913

14 8.3 August 1971

15 8.3 September 2011

16 8.13 July 1912

17 8.07 June 1881

Wow. The lake enhanced rain this moring is extremely heavy on the eastside. Chagrin river is high as I've even see it. I didn't have a chance to check my rain gauge this morning but I'm guessing that I've received a minimum of 5"+ from Sandy alone. An epic event to say the least. If only this was snow... but its a little less painful since this is happening in October.

Seems like the sun hasn't come up since last Friday.

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This rain is just plain ridiculous. Having endless cloudy days is one thing, but endless rain for days and days is downright depressing at this point. CLE over 10 inches this month. I've stopped keeping track of the Sandy total, it's been a lot.

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This rain is just plain ridiculous. Having endless cloudy days is one thing, but endless rain for days and days is downright depressing at this point. CLE over 10 inches this month. I've stopped keeping track of the Sandy total, it's been a lot.

Couldn't agree more. Enough of the rain already... it has been dark and rainy since last Friday. I have a pond in my yard which shouldn't be there, and probably won't dry up until Spring. If it was colder I could open up a skating rink. Gutters are overflowing, yard is a mess etc.

Still raining in Chagrin, but much lighter than this morning.

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This rain is just plain ridiculous. Having endless cloudy days is one thing, but endless rain for days and days is downright depressing at this point. CLE over 10 inches this month. I've stopped keeping track of the Sandy total, it's been a lot.

I am really curious to see the latest US drought monitor data for Ohio that come out tomorrow. The last release on 10/23 showed a decent-size area of D0 and D1 covering pretty much all of the state except NW Ohio.

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I am really curious to see the latest US drought monitor data for Ohio that come out tomorrow. The last release on 10/23 showed a decent-size area of D0 and D1 covering pretty much all of the state except NW Ohio.

Yeah. Cleveland just surpassed the yearly normal 2 months ahead of schedule. We've had about 18 inches since September 1st, which is just incredible. Any semblance of drought conditions that might have popped up mid summer are long gone.

This rain is like some sick cruel joke. It has more or less been raining non stop since Friday afternoon. We did have a bit of a lull Saturday night, but it's been a good 85 consecutive hours since early Sunday that rain has been falling from the sky.

This is turning into a big lake enhanced rain scenario. Such a shame as we could have easily snagged 10-20" of snow from the lake enhanced precip that began last night, that's on top of the 6 inches of rain that had fallen prior.

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Yeah. Cleveland just surpassed the yearly normal 2 months ahead of schedule. We've had about 18 inches since September 1st, which is just incredible. Any semblance of drought conditions that might have popped up mid summer are long gone.

This rain is like some sick cruel joke. It has more or less been raining non stop since Friday afternoon. We did have a bit of a lull Saturday night, but it's been a good 85 consecutive hours since early Sunday that rain has been falling from the sky.

This is turning into a big lake enhanced rain scenario. Such a shame as we could have easily snagged 10-20" of snow from the lake enhanced precip that began last night, that's on top of the 6 inches of rain that had fallen prior.

No better across the lake in Ontario. I said to my wife tonight before reading this post that it's been raining basically non-stop since last Friday here and is really starting to get old. I don't have a rain gauge so obviously don't know how much, but the ground is totally saturated. We fared better than you on the lakeshore with the winds as very little tree damage here or power outages in the immediate area, altho' Sarnia got hit a lot worse being directly south of L. Huron. I told people we dodged a bullet with the wind gusts just under 60 mph. Much over and I think we would be dealing with a lot more damage.

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Our October minimum temperature in Chagrin Falls was 33 F, with all the humidity we haven't been able to get a hard freeze yet.

Yeah. I was just thinking the same thing. The coldest CLE has been this season is 34 and that was back on October 13th. I wonder if the NWS will even bother issuing frost/freeze advisories for when it does happen, seems like a moot advisory to issue in November.

The very cloudy, damp, and wet fall certainly helped to prevent a freeze and the 7"+ this week will probably keep the first freeze at bay a bit longer. It seems like the folks who are well inland did hit 31 or 32 back in early to mid October.

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I'm not sure about CLE, but IND announced that they discontinue frost advisories/freeze warnings after Oct. 31. Their southern CWA had not experienced a freeze yet.

Quite honestly, even though we've had a couple of good frosts that killed sensitive vegetation, we have not had a hard freeze yet. I have mowed 3 times since IWX discontinued their freeze products.

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Hey, what do you know, it's still raining! Radar shows a definite weakening the past hour, so hopefully we can start to dry out. This will probably have some implications for our upcoming temperatures.

Dry out?! I think we might make a run at 7 days in a row on the eastside... with a few breaks of course. I have one of those garden rain gauges in the ground which holds 7" inches of rain... last night around 6pm it was overflowing and I put it in the ground on Sunday before Sandy. I'm not sure how long it had been overflowing. I haven't seen this much rain in my lifetime... which I said last Fall.

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Dry out?! I think we might make a run at 7 days in a row on the eastside... with a few breaks of course. I have one of those garden rain gauges in the ground which holds 7" inches of rain... last night around 6pm it was overflowing and I put it in the ground on Sunday before Sandy. I'm not sure how long it had been overflowing. I haven't seen this much rain in my lifetime... which I said last Fall.

A personal weather station in Shaker Heights on wunderground is reporting 12.29" for October. I know that CLE had missed out on some of the lake enhanced rain events earlier in the month, hence only getting 10.40" for October.

Cuyahoga County is the wettest place east of the Rockies the past two months according to the latest 2 month precip maps. A little blob of 20"+ rains sits over the area.

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A personal weather station in Shaker Heights on wunderground is reporting 12.29" for October. I know that CLE had missed out on some of the lake enhanced rain events earlier in the month, hence only getting 10.40" for October.

Cuyahoga County is the wettest place east of the Rockies the past two months according to the latest 2 month precip maps. A little blob of 20"+ rains sits over the area.

Staggering rainfall amounts this fall. I don't know that I've received 20"... but probably pretty darn close. If only a portion of the precip we received this week was snow we would be waist deep.

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Hey, what do you know, it's still raining! Radar shows a definite weakening the past hour, so hopefully we can start to dry out. This will probably have some implications for our upcoming temperatures.

Woke up to a light drizzle in Chagrin Falls this morning that has turned into a moderate rain with plenty of lake effect on the radar.

Slipped and fell and got covered in mud while walking my dogs along the falls this morning. The river looks to be down about 1 ft. from yesterday afternoon.

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Woke up to a light drizzle in Chagrin Falls this morning that has turned into a moderate rain with plenty of lake effect on the radar.

Slipped and fell and got covered in mud while walking my dogs along the falls this morning. The river looks to be down about 1 ft. from yesterday afternoon.

It was still flowing pretty good when I drove past on my way in the office this morning. I take Falls rd home... the river at the corner of rt. 87 and Falls rd was amazing.

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Alright, things look ok for some light snow away from the lake tonight:

post-525-0-71120800-1351797842_thumb.png

Wet-bulb freezing levels will fall to 1000-1500 ft with 850mb temps of -5 to -7C late tonight through much of tomorrow. Deep synoptic moisture up through the lowest 10-12k feet will combine with moderate lake induced instanbility (lake-850mb temp differentials of 15-17C give or take, higher east...inversions peaking at near 700mb late tonight, slowly falling tomorrow) to ring out moisture downwind of the lake beginning again overnight tonight as a weak shortwave comes through.

Although the temp profiles are marginal, there is no reason places above 1000' shouldn't easily change to snow at some point late tonight and why places above about 1200' shouldn't accumulate some snow. Areas lower down may see some snow/grauple mix under any heavier lake effect showers.

Temps aloft will support snow through the day tomorrow as well although it will become harder to accumulate after mid-morning when the boundary layer warms into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

As for how much precip may fall, the hi-res NAM prints out a quarter to half inch of liquid on the east side from tonight through Friday night...the NMM prints out .1-.25" in general across the Snow Belt in that same timeframe...with more over PA...while the ARW prints out a general tenth to quarter inch of liquid with a more defined band on the east side dropping up to .75" of liquid in the same time frame.

Given the atmosphere's ability to dump copious amounts of liquid on northern OH lately, I want to bite on the higher numbers. Given a short fetch and weak flow and decent low level lapse rates, I think weaker multi-bands will take hold after midnight as the shortwave rotates through. The flow is not really westerly enough for a primary band in this instance. Given the deep synoptic moisture in place and lapse rates mentioned above however, these multi-bands may have moderate precip rates beneath them. With the flow being out of a consistent direction beginning late tonight, there is some small potential for the bands to sit and "dump."

So right now I think a generic .1-.25" of liquid from the ridges in southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina counties points east is a good call for tonight-tomorrow, but I do think there may be locally higher amounts (a few tenths to maybe .5" of liquid) where any bands do set up, with the best bet being on the east side into Geauga County. As for snow amounts, this likely translates to up to an inch of accumulation along the hills in the secondary Snow Belt east, with locally up to 3" possible east of Cleveland in the higher terrain if any bands do manage to sit.

Due to technecal reasons, the Buffalo WRFs appear to be inaccessable at this time.

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Cool article, but isn't the Cincinnati NWS office in Wilmington OH, not Kentucky like the article says?

It's good his office has a backup manual rain gauge.

Yeah, I thought the same thing.

The author was confusing CVG airport with the NWS in Wilmington, Ohio. Unless maybe they were referring to larger FAA operations, but then again it's a local Canton newspaper so I wouldn't expect much.

CLE just hit 40 inches of rain this year, so even if it didn't rain a drop through the end of the year, we'd still end up 1 inch above normal.

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Alright, things look ok for some light snow away from the lake tonight:

Wet-bulb freezing levels will fall to 1000-1500 ft with 850mb temps of -5 to -7C late tonight through much of tomorrow. Deep synoptic moisture up through the lowest 10-12k feet will combine with moderate lake induced instanbility (lake-850mb temp differentials of 15-17C give or take, higher east...inversions peaking at near 700mb late tonight, slowly falling tomorrow) to ring out moisture downwind of the lake beginning again overnight tonight as a weak shortwave comes through.

Although the temp profiles are marginal, there is no reason places above 1000' shouldn't easily change to snow at some point late tonight and why places above about 1200' shouldn't accumulate some snow. Areas lower down may see some snow/grauple mix under any heavier lake effect showers.

Temps aloft will support snow through the day tomorrow as well although it will become harder to accumulate after mid-morning when the boundary layer warms into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

As for how much precip may fall, the hi-res NAM prints out a quarter to half inch of liquid on the east side from tonight through Friday night...the NMM prints out .1-.25" in general across the Snow Belt in that same timeframe...with more over PA...while the ARW prints out a general tenth to quarter inch of liquid with a more defined band on the east side dropping up to .75" of liquid in the same time frame.

Given the atmosphere's ability to dump copious amounts of liquid on northern OH lately, I want to bite on the higher numbers. Given a short fetch and weak flow and decent low level lapse rates, I think weaker multi-bands will take hold after midnight as the shortwave rotates through. The flow is not really westerly enough for a primary band in this instance. Given the deep synoptic moisture in place and lapse rates mentioned above however, these multi-bands may have moderate precip rates beneath them. With the flow being out of a consistent direction beginning late tonight, there is some small potential for the bands to sit and "dump."

So right now I think a generic .1-.25" of liquid from the ridges in southern Cuyahoga/northern Medina counties points east is a good call for tonight-tomorrow, but I do think there may be locally higher amounts (a few tenths to maybe .5" of liquid) where any bands do set up, with the best bet being on the east side into Geauga County. As for snow amounts, this likely translates to up to an inch of accumulation along the hills in the secondary Snow Belt east, with locally up to 3" possible east of Cleveland in the higher terrain if any bands do manage to sit.

Due to technecal reasons, the Buffalo WRFs appear to be inaccessable at this time.

Ice pellets were coming down lightly this morning. Nice write-up... I'm looking forward to seeing your analysis for the LES events this winter.

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Ice pellets were coming down lightly this morning. Nice write-up... I'm looking forward to seeing your analysis for the LES events this winter.

Thanks. A bit of a band has set up on the east side but it seems rather weak at the moment and is producing some rain/ice pellets out here.

Mid-level temps will cool a little more and the atmosphere is supposed to moisten up a bit towards late morning so we may see a bit of an increase in coverage and intensity of any precip in a few hours. Right now though with boundary layer temps near 40 it will take quite a heavy shower to cause any accumulations so that part of my forecast may bust.

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They were mangled but a lot of flakes did make it to the ground in Twinsburg/Macedonia when those heavier returns passed through. A few degrees too warm for them to do anything other than melt 5 seconds after hitting the ground however.

A mix of rain showers, small hail and a couple of flurries in Chagrin today. It looks like we don't break the cyclonic flow until Sunday afternoon, the length of time we've been in a cyclonic flow will be about 10 days or so...must be a record?

Looks like another potentially nasty storm next week for the Northeast, with once again a stubborn block around Newfoundland/Greenland. At least this time there should be a warm up for mid November. We can certainly use it to dry us out...those leaves on the muddy ground aren't going to pick themselves up!

post-7331-0-26696700-1351887301_thumb.pn

post-7331-0-13341000-1351887310_thumb.pn

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NAO has gone positive. Ensembles also bailed on the ECMWF Op. The problem with the OP is, it ignores the western trough and doesn't even really phase. My guess there will be changes.

What am I missing? The 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean looks very similar to the operational ECMWF on the East Coast with the potential Nor'Easter.

post-7331-0-69661800-1351888934_thumb.pn

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Lake Erie at Cleveland is 52 degrees. That's about 4 degrees colder than average. There are also upper 40s across the entire western basin. That should allow for LES events to effect the coastline a bit earlier this year.

Still no first freeze for CLE yet.

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