Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Thread

[Shsg Falls]

I noticed the windspeed in the GFS MOS is forecast to be higher at BKL than JFK (New York City) the next 72 hours with sustained wind above 40 knots for several hours.

[Trent]

Rain is coming down again. Going to make for an interesting Browns game. San Diego players are definitley not used to this weather.

I was thinking that too. Just imagine had the game coincided with the max winds.

I think quite a few people will be waking up Tuesday morning in the dark.

Winds are already 20-25mph gusting over 30 and the low pressure is 100s of miles off the Atlantic Coast.

[NEOH]

I was thinking that too. Just imagine had the game coincided with the max winds.

I think quite a few people will be waking up Tuesday morning in the dark.

Winds are already 20-25mph gusting over 30 and the low pressure is 100s of miles off the Atlantic Coast.

No doubt. The constant Northerly winds the past 2 days and heavy rains have set the stage. Trees will be toppling along the shoreline. I wouldn't want to live on a bluff over looking the lake... I'm sure there is going to be significant shoreline erosion. I believe it was hurricane agnes in the 70's that re-arranged the lake county coastline forever. Wouldn't be surprised to see that type of erosion in cuyahoga and lorain counties.

[NEOH]

Forecast water displacement. Don't see that very often.

[Trent]

No doubt. The constant Northerly winds the past 2 days and heavy rains have set the stage. Trees will be toppling along the shoreline. I wouldn't want to live on a bluff over looking the lake... I'm sure there is going to be significant shoreline erosion. I believe it was hurricane agnes in the 70's that re-arranged the lake county coastline forever. Wouldn't be surprised to see that type of erosion in cuyahoga and lorain counties.

September and October will have seen 42 days of rain out of 61 days at CLE.

I've seen the damage a severe thunderstorm can do in a few minutes here. This will be a constant battering for 12 hours.

Unfortunately high wind warnings won't do this storm justice. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings get people excited for 56 mph winds. This is one step above a severe thunderstorm warning and lasting for hours, yet there isn't a type of warning that gives urgency to the situation.

[OHweather]

Looks like we'll have about as high-impact rain/wind event as we'll ever see here in Northern Ohio.

The 12z GFS and NAM both bring a stripe of 70-80kt 850mb winds and 50-60kt 925mb winds for a 9-12 hours period across much of northern OH Monday Night. Along the lakeshore, there will be a decent mixed layer with some good mixing potential:

Although there is a sharp inversion around 850mb, the mixed layer created by the warm lake is progged by the GFS 6z Tuesday to extend up to 70+kt winds. This suggests that gust potential over the lake will be very high, with gusts of 70MPH or slightly higher likely Monday night.

When I switch the location of the 6z Tuesday skew-t to near Akron, one sees there is much less mixing potential:

There is not real mixed layer near the surface, and the mixing potential will be less away from the lake. However, I posted in the main Sandy thread that the insane pressure gradient alone argues for very strong wind potential, even if mixing is less than optimal:

Thus, I think widespread wind gusts to around 60MPH and perhaps locally higher for several hours will occur inland away from the lake. Thus, I expect widespread power outages and perhaps minor structural damage along the lakeshore, and scattered power outages inland. The saturated ground will increase the potential to uproot trees even if gusts are "only" to 55 or 60MPH.

Either way, hopefully we all are prepared for some power outages and possibly extended ones...I'll be filling up my car today after work.

[Hoosier]

Looks like we'll have about as high-impact rain/wind event as we'll ever see here in Northern Ohio.

The 12z GFS and NAM both bring a stripe of 70-80kt 850mb winds and 50-60kt 925mb winds for a 9-12 hours period across much of northern OH Monday Night. Along the lakeshore, there will be a decent mixed layer with some good mixing potential:

Although there is a sharp inversion around 850mb, the mixed layer created by the warm lake is progged by the GFS 6z Tuesday to extend up to 70+kt winds. This suggests that gust potential over the lake will be very high, with gusts of 70MPH or slightly higher likely Monday night.

When I switch the location of the 6z Tuesday skew-t to near Akron, one sees there is much less mixing potential:

There is not real mixed layer near the surface, and the mixing potential will be less away from the lake. However, I posted in the main Sandy thread that the insane pressure gradient alone argues for very strong wind potential, even if mixing is less than optimal:

Thus, I think widespread wind gusts to around 60MPH and perhaps locally higher for several hours will occur inland away from the lake. Thus, I expect widespread power outages and perhaps minor structural damage along the lakeshore, and scattered power outages inland. The saturated ground will increase the potential to uproot trees even if gusts are "only" to 55 or 60MPH.

Either way, hopefully we all are prepared for some power outages and possibly extended ones...I'll be filling up my car today after work.

The inland rate of decay will be interesting to watch. Given that almost all modeling is underdone on pressure right now and could very well be at landfall, it's possible that the pressure gradient could even be tighter.

[Geos]

No doubt. The constant Northerly winds the past 2 days and heavy rains have set the stage. Trees will be toppling along the shoreline. I wouldn't want to live on a bluff over looking the lake... I'm sure there is going to be significant shoreline erosion. I believe it was hurricane agnes in the 70's that re-arranged the lake county coastline forever. Wouldn't be surprised to see that type of erosion in cuyahoga and lorain counties.

I typed in Lake Erie erosion into Yahoo images and found quite a few crazy pictures!

Found a site with some interesting stats. http://dnr.state.oh.us/geosurvey/lakeerie/lefact2/tabid/7830/Default.aspx

Coastal erosion isn’t a rare problem. Of the thousands of Ohio homes on the Lake Erie waterfront, nearly half are within 50 feet of the top of the bluff and a quarter are within 25 feet of the top of the bluff. Many were further from the bluff when they were built.

Coastal erosion isn’t always slow. Erosion rates have been as high as 110 feet per year.

[OHweather]

The inland rate of decay will be interesting to watch. Given that almost all modeling is underdone on pressure right now and could very well be at landfall, it's possible that the pressure gradient could even be tighter.

Ya. I mean, the GFS skew-t for Akron is close to being able to mix as effectively as the sounding on the lakeshore. That on top of the extremely tight pressure gradient, which as you said may be a little tighter than currently progged makes me think that while the winds and gusts will probably be 10-15MPH or so less inland, they'll still be strong.

I typed in Lake Erie erosion into Yahoo images and found quite a few crazy pictures!

Found a site with some interesting stats. http://dnr.state.oh....30/Default.aspx

Ya, the coastal flooding/erosion aspect of this is interesting. Erosion is always occurring on the shoreline but this could be a significant event...the flood impact along I-90 which is near the shore on the west side of Cleveland is also interesting.

Not very often we see the risk for sustained storm force winds with possible hurricane force gusts blowing onshore into northern Ohio.

[dta1984]

Strong warnings from the nws;

MEDIA MAY WANT TO REALLY STRESS STAYING AWAY FROM

TREES...ESPECIALLY SINCE LARGE TREES MAY UPROOT DUE TO STRESSES ON

THE WEAKER SIDE OF THE ROOT STRUCTURE. STORM WINDS ARE NOT

EXPECTED FROM THE PREVAILING WESTERLY DIRECTION AND THIS MAY HELP

TO PUT A LOT OF STRESS ON BRANCHES AND THE TREES AS WELL. AVOID

PARKING AUTOMOBILES UNDER TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS THE

EVENT UNFOLDS.

[Trent]

This is really shaping up to be a disaster here. We're already over 2" of rain since Friday night. It has rained non stop since 9 am this morning and will continue to rain non stop for days. Once the major winds hit tomorrow night, the ground will be prime for trees to be easily uprooted, especially since the winds will be from the north.

I'm very concerned that a tree may fall on my house as it has been losing some large branches during thunderstorms. The power outages are going to be insane and with temperatures in the 40s through the week, homes will turn into refrigerators.

[Entropy]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=45005

Sustained winds (5 m agl): 29 knots (33 mph)

Sustained winds (10 m agl): 31 knots (36 mph)

Sustained winds (20 m agl): 33 knots (38 mph)

Gusts (5 m agl): 35 knots (40 mph)

Wave height: 7.5 ft

[Trent]

I wonder how many consecutive hours of measurable precipitation CLE will record out of this? Just looking at the radar makes me cringe thinking this could have been a snow situation.

Sandy rainfall total at CLE just crossed the one inch mark with 1.04" ... I'm betting we finish around 3.75"

[Trent]

Top ten wettest October's in Cleveland:

1 9.5 1954

2 6.75 1926

3 5.88 1955

4 5.85 1890

5 5.84 2011

6 5.82 2006

7 5.79 1881

8 5.73 1906

9 5.6 1878

10 5.56 2001

Currently we sit at 4.50" with Sandy on the way. We should have no problem at all moving into second place.

Top ten wettest October's in Cleveland:

1 9.5 1954

2 6.75 1926

x 5.99 2012

3 5.88 1955

4 5.85 1890

5 5.84 2011

6 5.82 2006

7 5.79 1881

8 5.73 1906

9 5.6 1878

10 5.56 2001

We just moved into third place. We should hit second wettest October by the evening. Hitting number one isn't out of reach, but it will be close.

CLE Sandy storm total sits at 1.49" through 7 am.

[NEOH]

I wonder how many consecutive hours of measurable precipitation CLE will record out of this? Just looking at the radar makes me cringe thinking this could have been a snow situation.

Sandy rainfall total at CLE just crossed the one inch mark with 1.04" ... I'm betting we finish around 3.75"

Feels like it has been raining for 3 days straight. I'm surprised CLE has not received more rain than that. Is that since Friday?

My street is lined with old oaks. I have one in my front yard and in the back (both 70 ft +). The trees are are healthy but with the longevity of the strong winds, and soft soil I'm sure something will fall. Going to be an ugly 24+ hours.

[Trent]

Feels like it has been raining for 3 days straight. I'm surprised CLE has not received more rain than that. Is that since Friday?

My street is lined with old oaks. I have one in my front yard and in the back (both 70 ft +). The trees are are healthy but with the longevity of the strong winds, and soft soil I'm sure something will fall. Going to be an ugly 24+ hours.

The since Friday total at CLE is 2.84". I'm not sure what the official Sandy start time would be, but the since yesterday morning total is 1.62" through 9 am.

[NEOH]

The since Friday total at CLE is 2.84". I'm not sure what the official Sandy start time would be, but the since yesterday morning total is 1.62" through 9 am.

Thanks. One rain event is blurring into the other.

I'm sure generator sales are through the roof today. Although, I'm not sure the general public is aware of what might happen with this storm. I'm expecting to be in dark for a few days.

[Entropy]

Feels like it has been raining for 3 days straight. I'm surprised CLE has not received more rain than that. Is that since Friday?

My street is lined with old oaks. I have one in my front yard and in the back (both 70 ft +). The trees are are healthy but with the longevity of the strong winds, and soft soil I'm sure something will fall. Going to be an ugly 24+ hours.

It's too bad this event couldn't happen in January. I imagine this would be an excellent storm track for the Ohio Valley and lower Lakes, if there were more cold air available for snow.

[OHweather]

As an interesting note, the recent HRRR/RAP runs don't support gusts over 50MPH tonight more than a few miles away from the lake. My guess is that is well underdone, as the 12z NAM is showing gusts to near 60MPH inland. Especially considering CAK and MFD are already gusting in the mid to high 20s and the pressure gradient and low level wind fields are literally going to double and then some by late this evening across the area with a fairly similar (homogenous) temp profile to what we have now and much heavier precip.

[Entropy]

As an interesting note, the recent HRRR/RAP runs don't support gusts over 50MPH tonight more than a few miles away from the lake. My guess is that is well underdone, as the 12z NAM is showing gusts to near 60MPH inland. Especially considering CAK and MFD are already gusting in the mid to high 20s and the pressure gradient and low level wind fields are literally going to double and then some by late this evening across the area with a fairly similar (homogenous) temp profile to what we have now and much heavier precip.

Yeah, that has to be underdone. Lorain County Airport, which is about 10 or 15 miles south of Lake Erie, is already reporting gusts to 45 mph and sustained winds to 30 mph.

[HighTechEE]

Check this live webcam out guys, huge waves on Lake Erie:

http://fox8.com/2012/10/29/live-video-massive-lake-erie-waves/

[NEOH]

Things are actually pretty calm for the time being out in Chagrin. Looks like the heaviest rains are confirmed to the lakeshore areas right now. Strange to see the rain dry up as it enters geauga from the east.

[NEOH]

Check this live webcam out guys, huge waves on Lake Erie:

http://fox8.com/2012...ake-erie-waves/

Nice find. I'm sure I- 90 will be washed over once the winds pick up tonight. That area is a nightmare in the winter as the spray freezes over the freeway.

[OHweather]

Things are actually pretty calm for the time being out in Chagrin. Looks like the heaviest rains are confirmed to the lakeshore areas right now. Strange to see the rain dry up as it enters geauga from the east.

Mesoanalysis indicates we are under a lighter area of 850mb winds. Things will only go up from here through the evening.

[NEOH]

Mesoanalysis indicates we are under a lighter area of 850mb winds. Things will only go up from here through the evening.

What time frame are you thinking for the highest winds? Looks like Sandy will be onshore soon.

[OHweather]

What time frame are you thinking for the highest winds? Looks like Sandy will be onshore soon.

11pm-5am for us. 850mb winds should be ripping at 70+ knots across all of northern OH during most or all of that timeframe...this is an inland forecast skew-t off the RAP...for near CAK valid at 7z...

Shows some potential to mix and tap 70 kt winds even inland. Couple this with heavy precip ongoing while this occurs and I have little doubt inland areas will easily gust 55+ maybe iso 65MPH...lakeshore soundings scarier...very well mixed to around 850mb...hurricane force gusts at BKL maybe?

[Entropy]

Winds really starting to ramp up over Lake Erie at Buoy 45005. Sustained at tropical storm force now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=45005

Sustained winds (5 m agl): 33 knots (38 mph)

Sustained winds (10 m agl): 35 knots (40 mph)

Sustained winds (20 m agl): 39 knots (45 mph)

Gusts (5 m agl): 43 knots (49 mph)

[OHweather]

Winds really starting to ramp up over Lake Erie at Buoy 45005. Sustained at tropical storm force now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=45005

Sustained winds (5 m agl): 33 knots (38 mph)

Sustained winds (10 m agl): 35 knots (40 mph)

Sustained winds (20 m agl): 39 knots (45 mph)

Gusts (5 m agl): 43 knots (49 mph)

CLE radar showing 36+kt winds almost to ground level just north of the radar. I think we see the big ramp up begin with that "outer band" pushing west...almost to the OH/PA boarder.

[NEOH]

11pm-5am for us. 850mb winds should be ripping at 70+ knots across all of northern OH during most or all of that timeframe...this is an inland forecast skew-t off the RAP...for near CAK valid at 7z...

Shows some potential to mix and tap 70 kt winds even inland. Couple this with heavy precip ongoing while this occurs and I have little doubt inland areas will easily gust 55+ maybe iso 65MPH...lakeshore soundings scarier...very well mixed to around 850mb...hurricane force gusts at BKL maybe?

Thanks. Going to be a long night hoping trees don't come down on the house. I'm about 8 miles inland so hopefully that will help.

Trent might have beachfront property tomorrow.

[OHweather]

Thanks. Going to be a long night hoping trees don't come down on the house. I'm about 8 miles inland so hopefully that will help.

Trent might have beachfront property tomorrow.

No prob. Not much to do other than hunker down and enjoy the meteorlogical insanity that is unfolding.

Trent has a unique view on this storm...will probably see the worst conditions in the state...for better or worse.

Power outages beginning to unfold...over 1,000 out in Lorain County as of a few minutes ago.