OHweather Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It still looks like we'll see some interesting weather locally here to end the month of October. This week is in general going to be exceptionally nice for this time of year. However, a cold front will eventually come through Friday-Saturday. There are interesting variations on what goes on after this front comes through...The Canadian wants to spin up a Hazel style extra-tropical bomb near DC and track it towards Buffalo, which would rip us with strong winds. Right now the Canadian is clearly an outlier in the regard. The 12z Euro yesterday bombed a seperate system around day 9 and dumped a lot of snow over the lower lakes...however, that is also an outlier. The GFS has been from time to time riding a wave of low pressure along the front next weekend and flirting in with the idea of synoptic snow on the backside. In general these are all weenie fantasy at this point...however, the 6-10 day pattern continues to support the idea of a cold shot supportive of some mixed precip, at least: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 There was a decent lake effect snowstorm 2 years ago the first weekend in November centered along the 271 corridor of Cuyahoga County. It really won't take that much to get the lake effect machine going for inland locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 There was a decent lake effect snowstorm 2 years ago the first weekend in November centered along the 271 corridor of Cuyahoga County. It really won't take that much to get the lake effect machine going for inland locales. If we don't get it with this cold shot to end October we may have to wait until well into November...after the epic block the models show over the north Pacific for the next week or so there are hints at a deep Alaskan PV developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If we don't get it with this cold shot to end October we may have to wait until well into November...after the epic block the models show over the north Pacific for the next week or so there are hints at a deep Alaskan PV developing. The euro fantasy storm is unreal. Edmund Fitzgerald type material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The euro fantasy storm is unreal. Edmund Fitzgerald type material. Between the two extreme solutions, which have held for a few runs now, the Euro and CMC both manage to drop snow on us. For now it's a mere fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Between the two extreme solutions, which have held for a few runs now, the Euro and CMC both manage to drop snow on us. For now it's a mere fantasy. Well, you called an active end to the month previously so I'm holding you to it . It will be interesting to see if the euro and cmc hold steady. At least there is something to track... can't ask for much more in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well, you called an active end to the month previously so I'm holding you to it . It will be interesting to see if the euro and cmc hold steady. At least there is something to track... can't ask for much more in October. I'm rooting for flakes out of this cold shot. Whether that comes from some light lake effect or a massive hybrid bomb is still to be determined. Due to the timeframe we are looking at and how extreme the CMC and Euro solutions are, I'd lean on a standard cool down with some lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 CLE calling for 81 on Thursday ... which would be a record high for the date. Also it would be the 5th latest 80+ degree day if it verifies. And if it somehow hits 82, it would be the warmest it's ever been that late in the season since ... wait for it ... November 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Darn, the Euro backed down last night. It now only shows 6-14" of snow across NE Ohio versus the 12-24" the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Darn, the Euro backed down last night. It now only shows 6-14" of snow across NE Ohio versus the 12-24" the night before. The 12z run yesterday almost nothing so it's a step in the right direction Still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 12z run yesterday almost nothing so it's a step in the right direction Still a long way to go. I figured the euro would go east last night... didn't happen. Todays run should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow... the euro insists on bringing the storm into PA. Going to be a fun few days of modeling watching regardless of what happens. Get your cement shovels ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The latest discussion from CLE indicates they are going with the colder / euro solution. Does this actually drop accumulating snow on us? All along i thought it was the possibility of a few flakes that we might see, never knew accumulations could be possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I figured the euro would go east last night... didn't happen. Todays run should be interesting. I don't think this will go east of us, with that big, blocking ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic. The ridge should shunt whatever forms to the west. Even the 12z GFS, which shows a landfalling ~950mb low over Maine, eventually retrogrades the low to near Lake Erie. I would expect the GFS to continue shifting west, rather than the ECMWF go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think it's a pretty safe bet that somewhere over NE Ohio will see snow this weekend and into next week, whether it be high elevation lake effect or system. I can't believe it's just October 24th and I'm already looking at the models every 6 hours! Some of the solutions being put forth are just unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The latest discussion from CLE indicates they are going with the colder / euro solution. Does this actually drop accumulating snow on us? All along i thought it was the possibility of a few flakes that we might see, never knew accumulations could be possible... The Euro shows QPF with surface temps at or below 40 (but never below freezing) and 850mb temps of -2C to -6C from 0z Monday through 18z Wednesday...with by my math an easy 1.5-2" of QPF falling east of Cleveland in that timeframe...and that's from quickly adding the 3 and 6 hr totals on the Wunderground maps. That would be very interesting verbatim in the higher elevations outside of the city...and probably a non-event along the shoreline. Two degrees colder and that's a significant snow event, two degrees warmer and it's mainly rain. Anyways, that's just what the models are spitting out now. They have not settled in on a solution yet (IMO) and we still have a longg way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I think it's a pretty safe bet that somewhere over NE Ohio will see snow this weekend and into next week, whether it be high elevation lake effect or system. I can't believe it's just October 24th and I'm already looking at the models every 6 hours! Some of the solutions being put forth are just unreal. Just a warm up for the upcoming epic eastern lakes winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC now takes Sandy into the NYC area Tuesday. Weenies will be at full attention through the weekend in Ohio I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC now takes Sandy into the NYC area Tuesday. Weenies will be at full attention through the weekend in Ohio I'm sure. Yeah, this storm is sure making a normally boring time of the year interesting. What a day today... with temps near 80 and full sun its hard to believe we could potentially see some snow. Leaves are pouring down out of the oaks... about 3 weeks ahead of last year. The silver maples and oaks are pretty much the only trees with leaves left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM has a bullseye over Cleveland tonight with 1.50". The rain train continues. We should get a decent amount of precipitation from Sandy regardless of final track. I'd imagine October will also end up in the top rainiest month category, a familiar award around these parts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NAM has a bullseye over Cleveland tonight with 1.50". The rain train continues. We should get a decent amount of precipitation from Sandy regardless of final track. I'd imagine October will also end up in the top rainiest month category, a familiar award around these parts! With all this rain we'll get before and during Sandy, the ground will be saturated and the risk for uprooted trees will be heightened. Even though the models are still in some disagreement, there is good agreement in a 12-24 hour period of gusts to 45-60MPH across much of Ohio...the Euro has that potential earlier with the faster and farther south landfall...Monday into Tuesday morning...the GFS is later...Monday night through Tuesday night with strong gust potential. With the wet ground and duration of winds, even if our max gusts are around 60 I'm sure people will loose power. If a solution like yesterdays 12z Euro and 18z GFS play out and this landfalls in NJ and makes a bee-line NW and we see gusts over 60MPH for a chunk of time, I think the power loss would be widespread even this far west. Still details to iron out. The snow aspect may still be interesting inland, but that threat still looks marginal given the temp profiles and fast flow off the warm lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 With all this rain we'll get before and during Sandy, the ground will be saturated and the risk for uprooted trees will be heightened. Even though the models are still in some disagreement, there is good agreement in a 12-24 hour period of gusts to 45-60MPH across much of Ohio...the Euro has that potential earlier with the faster and farther south landfall...Monday into Tuesday morning...the GFS is later...Monday night through Tuesday night with strong gust potential. With the wet ground and duration of winds, even if our max gusts are around 60 I'm sure people will loose power. If a solution like yesterdays 12z Euro and 18z GFS play out and this landfalls in NJ and makes a bee-line NW and we see gusts over 60MPH for a chunk of time, I think the power loss would be widespread even this far west. Still details to iron out. The snow aspect may still be interesting inland, but that threat still looks marginal given the temp profiles and fast flow off the warm lake. It's probably a good thing most of the leaves are coming down. My yard has become saturated over the past month. Sustained winds at that level would not be good if there was full leaf out. Snow prospects are about gone at this point around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 All the leaves in these parts are down. A few older oaks still holding on but all in all fall is over.... As for the soil condition here in SW Ontario the ground is very dry. Digging 1" down and the clay is almost powder in compostion. NTM we have had constant rain all week but never any puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 An ugly couple days coming up. Winds have been strong out of the NNE since last night. We are looking at roughly 5 days of strong NNE winds and waves. The shoreline from CLE west is going to take a pounding. I believe most of the coastline in that area is shale, as opposed to more sandy/rocky coastline east of cleveland... hopefully that will help reduce erosion. The rain and winds last night took down a lot of leaves. Pretty much just oaks left with about 50% of their leaves. Hopefully that will help with power outages. Although along the immediate shoreline that probably won't even help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The 12z NAM and 6z GFS still very impressive with wind potential here Monday night...both show gusts of up to 40MPH all Monday then increase rapidly Monday Night. Both models bring a stripe of near 80kt 850mb winds over N. Ohio, with 925mb winds of 50-60kt. This supports gusts to 60MPH inland and over 70MPH near and over the lake. The Euro was a little less impressive with the wind potential but by the looks the UK and Canadian would be closer to the American models wind wise. I still think if we can keep gusts below 60 away from the lake which is still possible the power outages will be more of the scattered and shorter lived variety. But with the wet ground and duration of the event, if we are gusting 60+ inland and 70+ lakeshore my guess is most of us will end up in the dark for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 23 consecutive hours of measurable rain at CLE, storm total about 1.22". Sandy will easily push us into top 3 rainiest October, setting the stage for back to back record wettest falls. It's kind of amazing to think if it were going to be a few degrees colder. Funny to potentially see a reverse rain north and east, snow south and west demarcation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Flood and high wind watches posted for northeast Ohio. Rainfall of 4 to locally 6 inches, along with 35-45 mph sustained winds and possible gusts to 65 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Top ten wettest October's in Cleveland: 1 9.5 1954 2 6.75 1926 3 5.88 1955 4 5.85 1890 5 5.84 2011 6 5.82 2006 7 5.79 1881 8 5.73 1906 9 5.6 1878 10 5.56 2001 Currently we sit at 4.50" with Sandy on the way. We should have no problem at all moving into second place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Top ten wettest October's in Cleveland: 1 9.5 1954 2 6.75 1926 3 5.88 1955 4 5.85 1890 5 5.84 2011 6 5.82 2006 7 5.79 1881 8 5.73 1906 9 5.6 1878 10 5.56 2001 Currently we sit at 4.50" with Sandy on the way. We should have no problem at all moving into second place. Unreal. I was not expecting another wet month. If soil moisture has any significance for where the cold weather sets up this winter we will be in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Rain is coming down again. Going to make for an interesting Browns game. San Diego players are definitley not used to this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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