Trent Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 It's feeling like last fall with all the rain, it never stops. CLE at 7.16" for the month, which is 7th wettest. CLE now officially running a surplus for the year, something very few climate stations can boast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 It's feeling like last fall with all the rain, it never stops. CLE at 7.16" for the month, which is 7th wettest. CLE now officially running a surplus for the year, something very few climate stations can boast. Everything is nice and green, though perhaps not for long with cold just around the corner. Amazing how everything has switched up in the space of just a few weeks - hot & dry to cool & damp. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 It's feeling like last fall with all the rain, it never stops. CLE at 7.16" for the month, which is 7th wettest. CLE now officially running a surplus for the year, something very few climate stations can boast. That's amazing considering how dry it was this spring and summer. Today's rain should be the last for the month. Never thought I was say this but we could use a few dry days... it's getting muddy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 With CLE at 7.43" for the month, this puts us at 5th wettest September now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 27, 2012 Author Share Posted September 27, 2012 I swear the forecast for today was mostly sunny and mid to upper 60s. Ended up socked in clouds all day with some drizzle most of the afternoon. This makes today the 7th consecutive day with measurable precipitation in Cleveland. It's incredible how quickly we went from warm sunny summer, to miserable damp gloomy wet fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Lake temps took a tumble. Now below average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted September 30, 2012 Author Share Posted September 30, 2012 Very odd to see storms moving in from the northeast this morning. I was hoping to see a waterspout, but things died quickly as they made landfall. The stage has definitely been set for a wet fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 I swear the forecast for today was mostly sunny and mid to upper 60s. Ended up socked in clouds all day with some drizzle most of the afternoon. This makes today the 7th consecutive day with measurable precipitation in Cleveland. It's incredible how quickly we went from warm sunny summer, to miserable damp gloomy wet fall. I would love a nice long stretch of rain. I wonder how Saginaw is doing, the driest location east of the Mississippi on average. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 10 out of the last 12 days at CLE have had measurable precipitation now. Too bad this wasn't winter. The one plus about a cool fall, is that the odds of an early lake effect snow along the shore increase. Lake Erie seems to be running about 2 degrees cooler than average right now and should continue to cool down ahead of schedule with the unseasonably cool air for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 First time "snow" is mentioned in the AFD for the season IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND AND UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A MODERATING AIRMASS WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT BY MONDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 First time "snow" is mentioned in the AFD for the season IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT STICK TO THE GROUND AND UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A MODERATING AIRMASS WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT BY MONDAY. -- End Changed Discussion -- Haha was just about to post that. Not sure if this cold snap is a good thing...or bad for our winter? Someone has mentioned that October cold and snow is not a good sign for winter, but not sure if that applies to the lakes region or not. Surely can't be worse than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 The Ohio and Surround States winter weather thread has made its annual appearance...question is...will we be allowed to talk about anything that happens north of Columbus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 The Ohio and Surround States winter weather thread has made its annual appearance...question is...will we be allowed to talk about anything that happens north of Columbus? That's why this thread was ultimately created. There was too much lake effect and talk about snowstorms NOT affecting Columbus or southern Ohio. It becomes a problem when threads and sub forums follow arbitrary political lines versus climate zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Haha was just about to post that. Not sure if this cold snap is a good thing...or bad for our winter? Someone has mentioned that October cold and snow is not a good sign for winter, but not sure if that applies to the lakes region or not. Surely can't be worse than last year. Looks like the cold snap over the weekend will be muted somewhat. These cold snaps will do nothing more than cool the lake so shore dwellers like Trent have a better chance at seeing snow in marginal events. We've had some pretty good winters with weak nino's so I'm optimistic. Nothing can be worse than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 That's why this thread was ultimately created. There was too much lake effect and talk about snowstorms NOT affecting Columbus or southern Ohio. It becomes a problem when threads and sub forums follow arbitrary political lines versus climate zones. Yeah, our climate is much different than C'bus. Probably best to keep all the LES talk in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 This afternoon's AFD brings back the mention of snow: STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AIR ALOFT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW WET SLUSHY SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN. WE WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR THAT MIXED ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THE SNOW AT THIS TIME. The GFS and Euro only bring 850mb temps down to -2 to -3C, and never dip 925mb temps below +2C over NE OH... with surface temps near or above 40 under any precip Saturday night into Sunday, so right now I don't think we see any mixed precip. The only exception would maybe be some brief grapple under any heavier lake effect showers. Early indications are we will have favorable conditions once again for waterspouts near-shore, especially Sunday...plenty of lake induced instability with a light, relatively uni-directional flow in the lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere. A light WNW flow will support convergence near the lake shore, especially in the morning hours, then perhaps weakening somewhat in the afternoon if we get any sun to warm up the land a little bit. I have preliminary plans to be at Cedar Point on Sunday, so I'd be a-ok with waterspouts over the lake. I'm personally hoping the slightly more progressive GFS solution pans out, as it doesn't sneak light synoptic rain over much of northern OH like the Euro...and Sandusky isn't necessarily the lake effect capital of Ohio, so I'm thinking if the synoptic moisture stays south/east I can sneak in a relatively rain free day out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 The northern Ohio rain magnet will continue if the NAM is right for tomorrow. Looks like close to 2 inches of rain. Hopefully the wet fall pattern can continue through winter. It's remarkable how much drier it's been just to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Perfect day today. Wish we could string together a few more of these. Winds are starting to bring the leaves down unfortunately... at the least on the trees that are changing. Seems like most of trees are starting to turn out in Chagrin. I'm thinking later next week will be the peak away from the lake. I'm sure things are still quite green near the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 Perfect day today. Wish we could string together a few more of these. Winds are starting to bring the leaves down unfortunately... at the least on the trees that are changing. Seems like most of trees are starting to turn out in Chagrin. I'm thinking later next week will be the peak away from the lake. I'm sure things are still quite green near the lakeshore. The leaf change is more dependent on the type of tree more so than proximity to the lake. Downtown is pretty much ablaze in color right now. Took this shot this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 CLE decided to add a mix of snow into the forecast for Saturday night. I'm still skeptical, although if we get enough lake effect convection we may see some grauple/soft hail at some point between Saturday night and Monday morning under any heavier showers. GFS not bringing any synoptic precip into northern OH Sunday, NAM and ECM are. May have to cancel the Cedar Point trip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 The leaf change is more dependent on the type of tree more so than proximity to the lake. Downtown is pretty much ablaze in color right now. Took this shot this afternoon: Nice pic Trent. Locusts line one of the streets by my house. They turn and fall quickly. Maples are probably showing the most color. Although the oaks are changing early as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 Hi res models hinting at a primary lake effect rain band developing tomorrow night. Looks to hug the coast through the east side. On top of today's rain, tonight's storms, and the lake effect, weekend rain will top 2" for a good chunk of NE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 winds are ripping out there with full sun... not good for the foliage. picked up an inch of rain yesterday/last night. another wet fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 8, 2012 Author Share Posted October 8, 2012 Another decent lake effect set-up yesterday. BKL had 0.61" of lake effect rain falling at a temperature of 43 (that's with 62-65 degree Lake Erie surface temperatures) Give it a month and we should have our first widespread lake effect snow event if the current pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 CLE has received over 10" of rain since September 1st. Now over an inch above normal for the year. What a huge change from the summer. More rain to come later this week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 16, 2012 Share Posted October 16, 2012 CLE has received over 10" of rain since September 1st. Now over an inch above normal for the year. What a huge change from the summer. More rain to come later this week as well. Ya, the end of this week (Thursday-Saturday) look mildly interesting... Thursday morning the models are bringing the 925mb winds up to 50 knots and 850mb winds up to 60 knots just ahead of the cold front. Timing won't be the best for strong winds but Thursday, especially in the morning, should be fairly windy. The very deep cut off low will be filling as it moves overhead and right now the timing isn't optimal, but the GFS/Euro clip northern OH with the remaining cold core Friday night into Saturday morning. The 500mb temps will "only" dip into the -20 to -25C range per current models overhead briefly, as opposed to sub -30C farther west on Friday, but this may be enough to mix in some small hail with any showers that pop up Friday night into Saturday. I say the timing isn't optimal because diurnal showers will likely blossom under the cold core with any daytime heating. GFS continues to occasionally show a cold shot (that would bring snow verbatim) in about two weeks. The pattern shown on the 8-10 day GFS would support this, with a cross-polar flow setting up with a negative enough NAO to bring some of that cold in our direction. The long range Euro also has the -NAO but is much more timid with the Alaskan ridging, which would likely make it hard to see the kind of cold the long range GFS is advertising. Anyways, it is getting to be that time of year and this is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 The front that just came through sure had some strong wind gusts with the rain. Goodbye foliage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 18, 2012 Author Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yes. There were 100s of leaves being pushed up 160-170 feet in the air. It was weird seeing leaves rain upwards that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 If we had slightly more vigerous convection the frontal passage would have probably produced borderline severe winds. The structure of the squall line moving in was half decent as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 The GFS and its ensemble continue to develop good -NAO and +EPO blocking in about a week and continue to show an impressive cold shot over much of the eastern portion of the country...with yes the OP verbatim likely supporting a couple shots of mixing in some flakes towards the end of the month. 12z GFS ensemble 11-15 day 500mb heights: The Euro suite isn't quite aggressive with the cold shot in the mid range, however the 0z Euro ensembles are showing the same -NAO and +EPO blocking at day 10: Essentially, the warm shot next week will probably be short lived, and I personally think we'll see a little snow the last few days of October. We'll see if I change my mind before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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