snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I dont know. Some one posted on accuwx forums. I believe its instantweathermaps, not sure. Also the total qpf thru 33 hours shows north gta in the .50 to .75 range. Just saw it. Yeah, tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 everything seems to be going close to what was expected for now. convective-ish elements are present down around GBG/MQB, with a rapidly developing/intensifying area of snow along and north of I-80 in E. Iowa/NW. Illinois (including some nice meso scale banding). this will all move intot he LOT CWA over the next few hours. earlier call of 2-7" along/north of I-80 looks good (localized high amts). still think the heaviest axis will be from Lee to Cook Co...but the given that the earlier FGEN band overproduced up north, the axis might have to be expanded up there too. lol.. cover them bases jojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Feels like a funeral in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Sigh FWIW I think that last couple runs of the HRRR and RUC have shown a little blob of returns filling in the dryslot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'd be perfectly content with the NAM's solution (if we have to deal with mixing/dry slot issues otherwise). Misery loves company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just saw it. Yeah, tight gradient. Again it all comes down to now-casting. The GHD storm surprised everyone the following morning...I hope we get something man. I liked the 6z Nam earlier today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This storm is really starting to suck. Even with heavier precip moving in it is still raining here. The last thing I was expecting was snow all afternoon followed by rain all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Feels like a funeral in this forum Yea. Time to take a break from it all. Most of the forum needs a suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Snow beginning to mix in with the rain now as the heavier mesoscale band moves in. First flakes since about 5pm. Lets see if we can get a full changeover. The ground is obviously very wet, with large puddles all over from all the rain today (0.34"). Can't wait to see this muddy looking landscape turn white over the next hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This storm is really starting to suck. Even with heavier precip moving in it is still raining here. The last thing I was expecting was snow all afternoon followed by rain all evening. Must be a residual shallow layer of warm air just off the surface. With the vort moving in I can't see it staying rain there very much longer at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 HRRR brings the 990 mb SLP over AA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 You don't even have an advisory or a warning and you gonna get more a lot more snow then here with a warning. It is RIPPING. Down to freezing too. Might not be many more posts from me since I'm having a blizzard party of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Moisture to the SW working it's way into SEMI... Should be all snow north of 696. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Snowing about 15 miles west of Toledo. Might be some rain mixing in. Hard to tell. It is not accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indeedinger Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Flakes are as big as I have ever seen here - snowing about as hard as I've seen it snow in about 4 years. Going to go measure shortly - guessing 3-4" so far. Definitely got the good end of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 pretty out there.. looks like kevlons wonderfull shots earlier. grass covered and tree's plastered. Very nice. Radar and short range guidance looks pretty good for your hood. Enjoy man, I know you appreciate it more than most. Oh and I'll PM you my paypal addy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It is RIPPING. Down to freezing too. Might not be many more posts from me since I'm having a blizzard party of sorts. Yeah, when is MKX going to upgrade Dane and Jefferson Counties to an advisory? It is likely to be warranted when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I'm very confident that DTX, and GRR will be shaving warnings off the southern end of their CWAs. I've been up all night following this storm, and I'm tired. I'm convinced we won't be seeing much. I was hoping to stay up, and see some decent thundersnow, but now it doesn't look likely. will have to go with 1-3" south of I-696, 4-8" between I-696, and I-69 with locally heavier amounts. Time to call it a night folks. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Moisture to the SW working it's way into SEMI... Should be all snow north of 696. Yup can't write this thing off until at least 6z. Radar filling in nicely over IN/OH and wetbulbs all at 34 or below over S. Mich. so S. MI should be all snow this next round. Dryslot over IL though will do it's magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Must be a residual shallow layer of warm air just off the surface. With the vort moving in I can't see it staying rain there very much longer at all. Down to 32° in your town I see. There's a shallow warm layer here, but it is snowing. Been bouncing between 32.8-33.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Mt.Pleasant upgraded to WSW 4-8". Obvious latest trends favoring I69 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 while the banding on radar looks good here, its sleet- not snow. ground is getting a nice coating of sleet as we speak. warm layer aloft has been hanging tough all evening and causing sleet or sleet/rain mix to continue. I don't see this ending well around here in terms of accumulations. Looks like North of Highway 30 in Iowa and just West of the Mississippi River (Maqouketa/Dubuque/De Witt/Clinton) is going to maybe be a jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Banding really taking off on the DVN radar as the Iowa vort continues to draw closer. Very interesting narrow bands of precip over much of eastern Iowa. Looks quite convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yup can't write this thing off until at least 6z. Radar filling in nicely over IN/OH and wetbulbs all at 34 or below over S. Mich. so S. MI should be all snow this next round. Dryslot over IL though will do it's magic Should get interesting between 11pm - 2am. Could be quick 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Down to 32° in your town I see. There's a shallow warm layer here, but it is snowing. Been bouncing between 32.8-33.8°. Yep, 32.7. Still a mix of rain/snow, and even an ice pellet occasionally. Not intense enough to stick yet, but it's slowly getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Mt.Pleasant upgraded to WSW 4-8". Obvious latest trends favoring I69 north Cool, time for bed for me...I still feel like crap, hopefully I can make it to class tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Mt.Pleasant upgraded to WSW 4-8". Obvious latest trends favoring I69 north Time to downgrade the southern counties.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Cool, time for bed for me...I still feel like crap, hopefully I can make it to class tomorrow. Oh the MET lab is not the same without you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Good indepth update from DTX. .UPDATE... IN THE VERY SHORT TERM, NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE TIMING OR COVERAGE OF HEADLINES. FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL ADD A MIX OF SLEET TO THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE OHIO BORDER UP TO ABOUT DETROIT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE NEEDED, BRINGING THE TRI CITIES CLOSER TO A POTENTIAL WARNING HEADLINE RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY. CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO AT PRESS TIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TOWARD THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING IN FROM IOWA. THIS WAVE WILL INDUCE INTENSE SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER INDIANA WHICH WILL HOLD THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND SUPPORT STRONG SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ON THE 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE APPROACHING 4 G/KG, THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED NORTHWARD EXPANSION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. ANY REMAINING MIX OF RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW WILL BE FORCED OVER TO ALL SNOW BY THE COOLING EFFECT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES. EVIDENCE OF THIS IS ALREADY APPEARING UPSTREAM CLOSER TO THE NORTH FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ABOVE REFERENCED MODE OF FORCING WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST THIRD OF THE EVENT WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED TO RESULT THROUGH 3 OR 4 AM, MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL TRANSITION TO A CONSIDERABLY MORE DYNAMIC TROWAL PATTERN CAPABLE OF EVEN MORE INTENSE RATES OF SNOWFALL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE BULK OF THE REMAINING EVENT THAT WILL LAST FROM LATER IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BRING THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTION TO SNOWFALL TOTALS. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT MEANS THE PEAK OF THE EVENT WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING TRAVEL PERIOD. THIS IS ALSO THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF IDENTIFYING THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOST INTENSE BAND AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE DRY SLOT MAKING A RUN INTO THE DETROIT AREA BY SUNRISE. INCOMING 00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE TROWAL AXIS SETTING UP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM LANSING TO BAD AXE, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATION SOUTHWARD THROUGH DETROIT TO THE OHIO BORDER. EXPECTING THE MOST INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND TO SET UP ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE TROWAL AXIS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT THAT MARKS WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED, OR ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM HOWELL TO LAPEER TO PORT SANILAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Keep an eye out for thundersnow in the area moving towards Detroit (it's very likely over the next couple of hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.