snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 On a positive note, my temperature has dropped to 32F. Being away from the lake may be a positive in this storm. Definitely. A) because you're north, and latitude counts with this storm and 2) with the sfc low likely going over us or to our west, the flow is going to turn onshore. Lk Ontario is still toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 No, but completely ignoring them is just as silly. And really I'd trust these too models a lot more right now then what the GFS and NAM or some non-hi-res model shows. Also you were the first one to call out a dryslot last night lol. You have to be trollin' They have their purpose. But they will waffle around from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 We'll see. It's not unprecedented. Dec 15-16, 2007 had the models go nuts with the development of the sfc low around 24 hours out only to ease it back 12 hours later. And the upper level component in that case was much more vigorous than this one. That being said, RUC is still pretty far west with the storm. We'll see. Absence of true bombing, it seems sort of anomalous for a sfc low to abruptly shift to a meridional track. I remember that storm well. Had about 12''. Oh the memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 They have their purpose. But they will waffle around from time to time. Yes, they should really just be taken the same as every other model in their respective time range. Speaking of waffling, the latest HRRR has a nice little blob filling in the dryslot as it goes through MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 DPA with -SN on the last ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 They have their purpose. But they will waffle around from time to time. It is ironic though because it is now beginning to look like SEMI will have received more snow from the unwarned/nonadvisory event a couple weeks ago than this event. As your saying though you cannot abandon ship just yet but radar is not trending well as the heavier returns are in OH and already east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 1st weenie suicide of the night. Lol I would be shocked if DTX dropped the warning for Wayne. The placement of the dryslot is a roll of the dice. The high res are decent guess but that's about it. Well, even if I was going to drop my conservative side for right now, it's still not looking that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Is that the Dry Slot forming in Illinois?????? If it is the RUC might be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Snow/Sleet/Rain mix right now...almost pea sized sleet pellets bouncing off the bulldog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 -SN/PL right now under these 20dbz echoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It is ironic though because it is now beginning to look like SEMI will have received more snow from the unwarned/nonadvisory event a couple weeks ago than this event. As your saying though you cannot abandon ship just yet but radar is not trending well as the heavier returns are in OH and already east of us. The Main event is hours away and the returns in OH should not be of any concern. Is that the Dry Slot forming in Illinois?????? If it is the RUC might be right! Really wouldn't call it a dry wedge. That should fill in eventually as the storm progresses in its maturity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Temps still stuck between 37-39 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 After the heavier precip moved out the sleet changed back to all light rain here. So far only a few mins of mixed wet flakes a few hrs back. Continue to slowly cool though, temp down to 33. Temps aloft continue to cool as well. Once some heavier precip moves back in in earnest we'll likely switch quickly to all snow. Still riding my 3" call from last night and this morning. Gonna be 3" of white concrete though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This afternoon I got 1.1 inches of snow. Unfortunately, an hour ago our precip changed back to rain, which I did not expect. The good band of snow in eastern Iowa has shifted up to hw20 from Waterloo to Dubuque. Rain on top of already sloppy snow equals a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 RUC really hitting the eastern half of SeMI with good convective precip by 7-9z Friday . This thing will rip hard and fast just in time for the morning commute. TGIF is all im saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 All snow here now...increasing in intensity and starting to stick. Decent sized flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The band is strengthening as it approaches Madison, exceeding 30 dBZ across almost the entire span. Down to 33 °F. Starting to get really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 LOL- Fort Madison Iowa AWOS is reporting heavy drizzle at 7:15pm. Never seen that one before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Big dendrite aggregates coming down, up to the size of quarters here and there. Not even in the core of the band yet so things might be about to get a little crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 LOL- Fort Madison Iowa AWOS is reporting heavy drizzle at 7:15pm. Never seen that one before. I wanna see some +TSDZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 nice to see the 12" contour being busted out for MI folks On behalf of all, I'll gladly accept it too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 FWIW 00Z ruc takes low over Detroit. Feeling more confident about heavier snows across central MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Well, 0z NAM has initialized the placement of the sfc low better. By 3z it has it in northern KY, which is approximately 50 miles SE of the 18z run and gels nicely with where the best 3 hr pressure falls are. Whether this benefits us later on is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 One county to my north they are nearing 4 inches now. This has been disappointing so far. It started out promising with an early switch to heavy snow, but since then we've gone backward. The snow gradually lessened by late afternoon and then changed to drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The Main event is hours away and the returns in OH should not be of any concern. If you followed the previous model runs (particularly the Feb 23rd 0Z, 6Z and into the 12Z runs), this wave that is now strongest in eastern OH was originally suppose to be strongest in northern IN into northern OH. This is the wave that was expected push into southern MI and be the trigger of the Convective/thundersnow. As the day has progressed we have seen this wave push further and further to the east in the models while the other portion over IA/WI/IL has been separating more and more. This complete separation is now leading the models to show less and less for our area. Looks like the RUC this morning was correct having the best snows in MI in SW & Central MI. It has been persistent about it all day and now it just maybe right as the radar is doing what the RUC has been saying. Oh well. Regardless I am hoping for the best but now not expecting much at all. Enjoy the storm all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 FWIW 00Z ruc takes low over Detroit. Feeling more confident about heavier snows across central MI. I think it is too far to the NW, your area still looks solid for a 4-7" however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 punting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think it is too far to the NW, your area still looks solid for a 4-7" however. Your thoughts on the dryslot potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Well, 0z NAM has initialized the placement of the sfc low better. By 3z it has it in northern KY, which is approximately 50 miles SE of the 18z run and gels nicely with where the best 3 hr pressure falls are. Whether this benefits us later on is still up in the air. Thru 12 hours it still a hair further south. So far so good. Fingers crossed man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 punting Winter of 2011-12, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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