toronto blizzard Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 23z sfc analysis has the low around PAH. 3 hr press falls along the OH River. Looks like about 50 miles south of where the 18z NAM/GFS progged the low. I know, probably straw grasping, but without it, you end up with that ^^^^ Are you suggesting that maybe the NAM/GFS are too far north with the low placement. And BTW how did the RGEM look? Sorry I'm not near a computer I'm on my ipod so it cant load the images for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Really liking the 6-9z period around here, sitting right on the nose of the left exit region of the jet with mid-level temps steepening the lapse rates aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Are you suggesting that maybe the NAM/GFS are too far north with the low placement. And BTW how did the RGEM look? Sorry I'm not near a computer I'm on my ipod so it cant load the images for some reason 18z RGEM was slightly further south than the 18z Nam. It showed more snowfall in the region. 4-8"...closer to 2-4" near the lake. Again I would worry about the placement of the LP anomaly and where the precip shield tracks. 0z RUC and HRRR will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Thats good news...because I am just NOT feeling good about this one. Thinking it wont hold a candle to the Feb 10/11 snowstorm IMBY at least. Hope I am wrong. That's a given anyways. Totally different synoptic set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Hmm any thoughts as to whether or not this can slide slightly further south than what the 18z Nam or the GFS depicted. A slightly further south track than those models would put me back in the jackpot similar to what the 18z RGEM showed. Given my location, upper air temps and sfc temps are conductive for snowfall to fall and stick though relatively low snow ratios. I dont think the atmosphere is conductive enough for Thundersnow in my area but its possible though. Just want your opinion on that. Thanks! Probably not, the surface low is already beginning to take a neutral to northward track, and I don't think there will be any more south "trends" since the jet is no longer amplifying via latest WV as well as model indicated. I doubt that secondary defo band as the mid level wave begins tanking will dive S for any reason, but that is a general idea. I honestly have not been looking terribly close for Toronto...I am sure SSC has more info on it than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Really liking the 6-9z period around here, sitting right on the nose of the left exit region of the jet with mid-level temps steepening the lapse rates aloft. Extremely impressive. The radars will be awesome to watch over the next 6-12hrs. Looks like the north/south oriented wave near the Mississippi could blow up into some nice convective precip at any time. Already some interesting little returns mixed in near the QC. EDIT: and also down towards Burlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It looks like Kenosha could see warning criteria snows. It will start accumulating really soon there! Seems so unlikely...wet wet ground and grassy surfaces. Still seems far fetched...hard to believe with the winter we've had. But...I'm open to anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 38 bank thermo = ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Don't ever post a image like this again...please...keep it to yourself LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Some fairly heavy sleet here at the moment. Appears to be the only type of precip that is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Probably not, the surface low is already beginning to take a neutral to northward track, and I don't think there will be any more south "trends" since the jet is no longer amplifying via latest WV as well as model indicated. I doubt that secondary defo band as the mid level wave begins tanking will dive S for any reason, but that is a general idea. I honestly have not been looking terribly close for Toronto...I am sure SSC has more info on it than I. Personally I believe the 18z Nam was too far north as the 18z RGEM and the latest RUC trended a bit further south with the precip shield. Again lets see. This is the first "widespread" storm across my region since 08-09 lol. Based on current OBS, I agree with you. Again It will be interesting to follow the secondary deformation band. I hope your enjoying Winter man. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Some fairly heavy sleet here at the moment. Appears to be the only type of precip that is falling. last stage before going all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Well, looking at the current trends, seems like the warning for Wayne County in MI should be downgraded. Looking more like a storm for the thumb area. Good for them I suppose. I was hoping to see a decent storm, and now it looks I'll be lucky to pull in a few inches. It's the weather, what can ya do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 RUC and HRRR seem to be trending toward agreement that I'll be writing that letter to accuweather tomorrow. Should have let Bill Deedler start this second thread...the guy has a special touch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Noticed dewpoints dropped a tad in S WI and N IL. Some 29-30°. 1.4" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 That's a given anyways. Totally different synoptic set ups. Oh I know they are totally different setups, I just meant that I doubt this storm will surpass Feb 10/11 as biggest snowfall of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 portion of Izzi's aviation update... SUSPECT COOLING REQUIRED TO CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY DYNAMIC COOLING/ASCENT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...SO THIS MAKES TIMING SOMEWHAT TRICKY. TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE MODELS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY TEND TO SUPPORT A SLOWER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND HAVE DELAYED THE SWITCH-OVER ANOTHER HOUR WITH THE LATEST SET OF TAFS. ONCE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS WOULD ANTICIPATE SEEING A A GOOD 4-6 HOUR LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT THE CHGO METRO TERMINALS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ALSO SUPPORTS HANGING ONTO THE HEAVIER/ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER INTO THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IFR VSBY SNOW THROUGH 14Z...BUT ACTUALLY WORRIED THAT THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVIER EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WHEN MORNING TRAFFIC PICKS UP. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR +TSSN IN THE TAFS AS OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 portion of Izzi's aviation update... SUSPECT COOLING REQUIRED TO CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY DYNAMIC COOLING/ASCENT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...SO THIS MAKES TIMING SOMEWHAT TRICKY. TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE MODELS AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY TEND TO SUPPORT A SLOWER CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND HAVE DELAYED THE SWITCH-OVER ANOTHER HOUR WITH THE LATEST SET OF TAFS. ONCE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS WOULD ANTICIPATE SEEING A A GOOD 4-6 HOUR LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT THE CHGO METRO TERMINALS FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW ALSO SUPPORTS HANGING ONTO THE HEAVIER/ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER INTO THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH IFR VSBY SNOW THROUGH 14Z...BUT ACTUALLY WORRIED THAT THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVIER EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WHEN MORNING TRAFFIC PICKS UP. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR +TSSN IN THE TAFS AS OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. jives with what the hi-res have been showing show a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Got a mix of mostly snow and some rain in Madison. 34.6/33.9, it moistened up extremely fast when precip began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 A light rain snow mix here now in southwest Milwaukee County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Dubuque leading the way in snowfall, as usual in the DVN CWA lol. 0600 PM SNOW 1 NW DUBUQUE REGIONAL A 42.41N 90.73W 02/23/2012 M2.7 INCH DUBUQUE IA OFFICIAL NWS OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 KGRR aviation calling for 2" per hour rates likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 25-30 dBZ band coming towards Madison, should be here in the next hour if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Are you suggesting that maybe the NAM/GFS are too far north with the low placement. And BTW how did the RGEM look? Sorry I'm not near a computer I'm on my ipod so it cant load the images for some reason We'll see. It's not unprecedented. Dec 15-16, 2007 had the models go nuts with the development of the sfc low around 24 hours out only to ease it back 12 hours later. And the upper level component in that case was much more vigorous than this one. That being said, RUC is still pretty far west with the storm. We'll see. Absence of true bombing, it seems sort of anomalous for a sfc low to abruptly shift to a meridional track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Friendly reminder. The HRRR an RUC are not gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 My mom has pictures of me playing in the snow during that blizzard. She told me you were off school for like a week lol. I was too young to remember. In kindergarten lol. I was in Grade 13. Incredible storm, one of the best of my life. The others are december 10-11,1992, December 11-12, 2000, December 16, 2007, March 8, 2008, December 9-10, 2008. Where is organizing low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 We'll see. It's not unprecedented. Dec 15-16, 2007 had the models go nuts with the development of the sfc low around 24 hours out only to ease it back 12 hours later. And the upper level component in that case was much more vigorous than this one. That being said, RUC is still pretty far west with the storm. We'll see. Absence of true bombing, it seems sort of anomalous for a sfc low to abruptly shift to a meridional track. On a positive note, my temperature has dropped to 32F. Being away from the lake may be a positive in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Well, looking at the current trends, seems like the warning for Wayne County in MI should be downgraded. Looking more like a storm for the thumb area. Good for them I suppose. I was hoping to see a decent storm, and now it looks I'll be lucky to pull in a few inches. It's the weather, what can ya do? 1st weenie suicide of the night. Lol I would be shocked if DTX dropped the warning for Wayne. The placement of the dryslot is a roll of the dice. The high res are decent guess but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Friendly reminder. The HRRR an RUC are not gospel. No, but completely ignoring them is just as silly. And really I'd trust these too models a lot more right now then what the GFS and NAM or some non-hi-res model shows. Also you were the first one to call out a dryslot last night lol. You have to be trollin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Things have quieted down considerably in the wake of the WAA wing. That left us with about an inch and a half down. That being said, a steady dose of flurries continues to fall. Small flake size but the high moisture content is quite evident as they are dropping fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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