SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 No thundersnow event will ever match the 1999 Blizzard. It was relentless and constant. Flash after flash. Almost got un cool because it happend so much over the corse of the night. I hear many say the president day storm had the best. I personally disagree as that storm only had 1 flash and weak thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Check out the hook while my DJ revolves it. Last ones before dark.[attachment=58342:uploadfromtaptalk1330040712474. [attachment=58343:uploadfromtaptalk1330040862016. [attachment=58344:uploadfromtaptalk1330040883843. Wow, these are great! I like the 2nd one the best! The blue tint light effect is awesome. Should send one into Skilling or another news station! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I really don't want to clutter the thread with this disco, but this is not a clipper by any definition. Clippers are low amplitude waves along the polar front. A classic config is a nearly straight polar jet featuring a low amplitude disturbance along it with a sharp low level baroclinic zone. They have an incredibly fast phase speed due to their short wavelength config aloft (and total lack of LHR given their dry nature...hence cyclogenesis along the polar front is steady state...not nonlinear) and remain short wavelength features through their life span. A large upper level rossby wave (like this storm) is the opposite of a clipper. This is also why this storm is so slow to develop. Driven strongly by jet scale forcing along an amplifying upper level trough. Saying the "mid level wave ejects WY/NE" really means nothing. I agree with you. That's why I said it seems to be a mix of everything. Either way it was a low amplitude disturbance with a steady state of cyclogenesis coming out of Sakasawan that cross the Rockies undergoing vertical stretching exiting the Rockies and entering a baroclinic zone at the base of the rockies...after those events it lost it title. Before it reached the Rockies you could argue it had screamer/momma/clipper characteristics. Agree to disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Liking the latest trends for central MI. Going to say 4-7" here as 18z suite along with RUC and HRRR suggesting increased amounts across the advisory areas of MI I agree! Of course GRR NWS will wait until the last minute to put the Muskegon area in the warning. They hate us when it comes to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Some pretty cool waves showing up on the DVN 88D. BI would appreciate this. They're standing gravity waves at that, so they're propagating directly opposite to the flow at the exact speed of the flow. Know what else goes exactly opposite to the flow? A mountain range! Water vapor suggests these waves are coming directly off a range in the Rockies. I'm not 100% sure about this, but if it's true there is some incredible ducting going on in some layer. http://mapmaker.aos..../g8wvflash.html That is pretty awesome cyclone. Given the amplifying and increasingly active jet streak (also the very short wavelength) I would have to believe this is in association with geostrophic adjustment processes associated with mesoscale jet circulations. Turtle...I think you are referencing different waves. I would highly doubt these are related in any way to mtn wave activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 OK sorry for opening up a can of worms. Quick question: Why was there moisture moving into N.Dakota last night from the NW? What kind of low was that. To me it seems like a disturbance from Sask met up with a low coming out of the rockies. If it came from Sask, wouldn't it be a "Saskatchewan Screamer"? JUST kidding!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Check the most recent DtX AFD I thought it stated 5z as the start of convective fun. Basically middle of the night weeee hours of the morning. Was talking to Costello from DTX earlier and we both mentioned the ~30 J/Kg MU CAPE for 6z off the NAM He is guessing 15 lightning strikes tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Go to bed now. We have a few hours before anything really gets going in Oakland County. Ahaha not so easy to do when I just woke up 8 hours ago But yeah as Sparty mentioned early the latest aviation update said 05z-10z which is pretty much like the worst timing in the world lol. Meh, its a friday maybe I'll pull an all nighter. Also, the irony of the first real snow storm of the year happening on the day before our "Spring break" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 That is pretty awesome cyclone. Given the amplifying and increasingly active jet streak (also the very short wavelength) I would have to believe this is in association with geostrophic adjustment processes associated with mesoscale jet circulations. Turtle...I think you are referencing different waves. I would highly doubt these are related in any way to mtn wave activity. Shouldn't waves associated with geostrophic adjustment propagate outwards? Under some special circumstance I could see them being standing, but there is a high flow stream with waves in it going from the Rockies to Iowa right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just started to SN here in Kenosha--1.5 mile off the lake. Sounds very much like rain, but streetlights show the snow is falling at a good clip. Nothing accumulating due to the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 FWIW, the above mentioned waves are showing up in the 4-6k ft AGL zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Turtle is a mighty fine poster when he wants to be, interesting and engaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 If it came from Sask, wouldn't it be a "Saskatchewan Screamer"? JUST kidding!!! lol. Whatever its is...Its bringing me 6-7" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 That is pretty awesome cyclone. Given the amplifying and increasingly active jet streak (also the very short wavelength) I would have to believe this is in association with geostrophic adjustment processes associated with mesoscale jet circulations. Turtle...I think you are referencing different waves. I would highly doubt these are related in any way to mtn wave activity. Agree to far away from the Rockies for gravity waves (Mountain waves)...farthest GWs I have recalled being documented is 300 miles down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The pics are awesome guys! BUT let's not tie up bandwidth during the storm. It's a nightmare for those with outdated browsers or mobile devices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 No thundersnow event will ever match the 1999 Blizzard. It was relentless and constant. Flash after flash. Almost got un cool because it happend so much over the corse of the night. I hear many say the president day storm had the best. I personally disagree as that storm only had 1 flash and weak thunder. Yes. That's how my mom described it. Just a nonstop barrage of thunder. I somehow found a way to sleep through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yes. That's how my mom described it. Just a nonstop barrage of thunder. I somehow found a way to sleep through it. I slept through 1/2 of GHD...u gotta do what you gotta do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yes. That's how my mom described it. Just a nonstop barrage of thunder. I somehow found a way to sleep through it. My mom has pictures of me playing in the snow during that blizzard. She told me you were off school for like a week lol. I was too young to remember. In kindergarten lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 23z sfc analysis has the low around PAH. 3 hr press falls along the OH River. Looks like about 50 miles south of where the 18z NAM/GFS progged the low. I know, probably straw grasping, but without it, you end up with that ^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 watch the new band going just south of Chicago, it's about to mash up with moisture feed from the south....this could evolve into the main band much later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Shouldn't waves associated with geostrophic adjustment propagate outwards? Under some special circumstance I could see them being standing, but there is a high flow stream with waves in it going from the Rockies to Iowa right now. Given their elevation on the ground as well as the placement of the jet, I would have to believe they are related to jet/front interactions/processes. They also don't really resemble ducted trapped mtn waves, but who knows. I certainly am not an expert on wave processes, and it could be a multitude of things since atmospheric waves are prevalent and common features during intense storms...especially during development. I am not discounting what you suggest, but thinking it is probably not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nightmare fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just started to SN here in Kenosha--1.5 mile off the lake. Sounds very much like rain, but streetlights show the snow is falling at a good clip. Nothing accumulating due to the rain... It looks like Kenosha could see warning criteria snows. It will start accumulating really soon there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Given their elevation on the ground as well as the placement of the jet, I would have to believe they are related to jet/front interactions/processes. They also don't really resemble ducted trapped mtn waves, but who knows. I certainly am not an expert on wave processes, and it could be a multitude of things since atmospheric waves are prevalent and common features during intense storms...especially during development. I am not discounting what you suggest, but thinking it is probably not likely. FWIW, looping the radar shows that the waves were essentially stationary. Didn't seem to be propagating like gravity waves. Either way it's very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Given their elevation on the ground as well as the placement of the jet, I would have to believe they are related to jet/front interactions/processes. They also don't really resemble ducted trapped mtn waves, but who knows. I certainly am not an expert on wave processes, and it could be a multitude of things since atmospheric waves are prevalent during intense storms...especially during development. I am not discounting what you suggest, but thinking it is probably not likely. Hmm any thoughts as to whether or not this can slide slightly further south than what the 18z Nam or the GFS depicted. A slightly further south track than those models would put me back in the jackpot similar to what the 18z RGEM showed. Given my location, upper air temps and sfc temps are conductive for snowfall to fall and stick though relatively low snow ratios. I dont think the atmosphere is conductive enough for Thundersnow in my area but its possible though. Just want your opinion on that. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Given their elevation on the ground as well as the placement of the jet, I would have to believe they are related to jet/front interactions/processes. They also don't really resemble ducted trapped mtn waves, but who knows. I certainly am not an expert on wave processes, and it could be a multitude of things since atmospheric waves are prevalent and common features during intense storms...especially during development. I am not discounting what you suggest, but thinking it is probably not likely. It is hard to believe but everything may be just right. Additionally, this paper which discusses gravity waves from geostrophic adjustment suggests they move quite fast, not standing. I'm not 100% sure though as I said before. http://www.srh.noaa....nd_Overview.pdf "One problem is the uncertainty of precisely when and where the first effects will be felt. Another is the movement or phase velocity of the wave. It appears that most of these waves move fast. As a result, lead times are limited, and individual locations in the wave’s path usually experience the highest squalls or gusts for just a few minutes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 HRRR doing its typical BS. Sometimes it's awesome sometimes it's major suckage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Given their elevation on the ground as well as the placement of the jet, I would have to believe they are related to jet/front interactions/processes. They also don't really resemble ducted trapped mtn waves, but who knows. I certainly am not an expert on wave processes, and it could be a multitude of things since atmospheric waves are prevalent and common features during intense storms...especially during development. I am not discounting what you suggest, but thinking it is probably not likely. Very unlikely it's a mountain wave...you need a stable layer of air above the wave for the entire distance it travels from the base of the mountains. Which I highly doubt there is a stable layer of air from Colorado to eastern Iowa to trap the wave especially since there is precip over eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 23z sfc analysis has the low around PAH. 3 hr press falls along the OH River. Looks like about 50 miles south of where the 18z NAM/GFS progged the low. I know, probably straw grasping, but without it, you end up with that ^^^^ Thats good news...because I am just NOT feeling good about this one. Thinking it wont hold a candle to the Feb 10/11 snowstorm IMBY at least. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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