QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Im sorry dont think the Detroit area verified. 80% of snow fell last night Majority of the area finished with an average 1.5" - 2.5". I know there was a report or two of 3". Its been snowing steady all afternoon i will be lying if i got more then 3" on the ground. A lot of snow melted on contact. I got numerous reports family and friends from a dusting to 2" all across the area. So overall the correct call was 1-3". I wasn't generalizing all of Detroit in all directions. I forecasted 3-5 for dtw...metro airport/romulus area. Which verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 If 3" fell, than his forecast verified. Not the prettiest, but still not wrong. It obviously had the best handle on the storm. Thanks! Like I said last night it wasn't going to be pretty how we got to the finish line but I thought my locals would make it to the bottom tier of the forecasts. Wrf had it on its 0z Thursday run with 2 for Detroit and 4 for Jackson but it wasn't close to any other models so I gave it less weight. But still factored it none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I wasn't generalizing all of Detroit in all directions. I forecasted 3-5 for dtw...metro airport/romulus area. Which verified. Yes you did I appoligize. Lol although dont think and very skeptical on DTW going pass 3"+ I highly question that if thats what the report was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not really goin to get in an argument over it but how would you not round 2.5 inches up to 3? Geez if we are goin to knit pick .down to .5 and .25 inches. Show me one entity that went 1-3. I'm not happy with my forecast by any means but it was way closer than any other entity. I don't think anyone could have saw this being that big of a flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 pics from 3:45pm went for a walk around the parents hood those are 2 dogs and 2 people in the distance buckets o sno' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not really goin to get in an argument over it but how would you not round 2.5 inches up to 3? Geez if we are goin to knit pick .down to .5 and .25 inches. Show me one entity that went 1-3. I'm not happy with my forecast by any means but it was way closer than any other entity. I don't think anyone could have saw this being that big of a flop Lol. Seriously. Agree who cares! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yes you did I appoligize. Lol although dont think and very skeptical on DTW going pass 3"+ I highly question that if thats what the report was I never said I thought they would be on the high end....in fact my post saw specifically they will probably be on the low end of 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Thanks bro work with the public and its hard to get them to comprehend verification scoring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Thanks bro work with the public and its hard to get them to comprehend verification scoring If it makes you feel better i had 6-7" call for mby. Barely got a choppy sloppy 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 pics from 3:45pm went for a walk around the parents hood those are 2 dogs and 2 people in the distance buckets o sno' Loverly. I'm thinking of heading up in Ottawa's direction later in March. I'm going to try and schedule things around a good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Loverly. I'm thinking of heading up in Ottawa's direction later in March. I'm going to try and schedule things around a good snowstorm. i was so wrong about today lol i told my parents and friends it wasnt going to be a big deal it looks like we picked up about 6-9 inches depending on where you measure, in about 3.5 hours it was all wet snow before that with just a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 If it makes you feel better i had 6-7" call for mby. Barely got a choppy sloppy 3" It was a tough storm it all comes down to knowing the region and how storms perform. sometimes you have to throw the models out the window and just go on experience. So don't feel bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 i was so wrong about today lol i told my parents and friends it wasnt going to be a big deal it looks like we picked up about 6-9 inches depending on where you measure, in about 3.5 hours it was all wet snow before that with just a dusting. I didn't put out an amount fo Ottawa but I saw the Franktown radar lit up with those beautiful golden returns earlier this afternoon. I figured you'd at least get half a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I didn't put out an amount fo Ottawa but I saw the Franktown radar lit up with those beautiful golden returns earlier this afternoon. I figured you'd at least get half a foot. with the lack of cold air around, there was no way i thought this would end up playing out this way, especially with a storm coming in from the midwest. Scott in the new england thread said that looking at WV, i was in the sweet spot for a while. so i guess it all worked out. march is a great time for snow in ottawa....maybe we can meet up if you make it over here, i come and go from VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This storm actually reinforces my commiseration with mets, especially tv mets. Considering not a single model showed banding setting up NW of Milwaukee, what are the mets supposed to do? They are not psychics; I don't expect them to know where the banding is supposed to set up 12-24 hours in advance or more. It's just not possible when even short range models are abysmal within 24 hours. The Ruc and HRRR were definitely looking good within <24 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The Ruc and HRRR were definitely looking good within <24 hrs.. You chose to write them off.. The HRRR started looking good w/in 12 hours, I must admit. The RUC I wrote off b/c everyone else was saying it initialized too far NW, and was well NW of most other guidance, so I was skeptical to say the least. Also, hearing that the surface low was tracking SC Missouri to S Indiana (Evansville) didn't help any confidence I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I see it and experience it all the time with friends and the public when it comes to calling a snow storm 24hrs. ahead of time. People want to know how much we're gonna get and I always explain "well if things go as they look now".... type of wording. You cannot account for last minute track wobbles and cannot foresee mesoscale features before they happen. I was a bit gung ho around here, I thought the metro area would easily make 4-6" while a few spots up by Dubuque, Clinton, Freeport would make 8". Well the official total was 3.1, DVN NWS office was 3.4, here at my place 3.5", Dubuque has reports of 7-8". So all in all I was a bit high here locally, but closer for areas up North. I'm really shocked at some of the gradients thru Chicagoland. I don't like calling storms that deal with changeovers. Seen it so many times where the models bring changeovers to snow in to quickly and bust high on amounts. They are just the hardest things to time. Now on to rain/thunderstorms next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The HRRR started looking good w/in 12 hours, I must admit. The RUC I wrote off b/c everyone else was saying it initialized too far NW, and was well NW of most other guidance, so I was skeptical to say the least. Also, hearing that the surface low was tracking SC Missouri to S Indiana (Evansville) didn't help any confidence I had. Understandable.. You getting in on those Snow Showers? Looks like some good returns about to move into your neck of the woods.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think we got about an inch here at VU. It's been snowing all day too, but not sticking to anything. I'm glad that since we busted, at least the north side and on into WI got it good, since I think when we over-performed on 1/20 those guys up there busted pretty hard, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Understandable.. You getting in on those Snow Showers? Looks like some good returns about to move into your neck of the woods.. I'm still on campus; planning on watching the MU game on campus. Will be heading out in a little while when the heavier returns approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The Ruc and HRRR were definitely looking good within <24 hrs.. HRRR only runs out to 15 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 All my snow melted today.. Basically slush on top of grasss.. EH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 i was so wrong about today lol i told my parents and friends it wasnt going to be a big deal it looks like we picked up about 6-9 inches depending on where you measure, in about 3.5 hours it was all wet snow before that with just a dusting. Storm is not done for Toronto region, as it continues to deepen and warm sector pushed off to southeast, rain may turn back to snow later and potential for 2-5 cms by midnight, meanwhile Ottawa and Montreal may pick up 20-30 cms as front stalls and deepening outstrips warm advection, however, some potential for thunder-sleet or ice pellets in the mix. Good call for Ottawa Roger! It's unfortunate your call for Toronto didn't pan out though. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Snow could still develop for Toronto, would not give up yet ... bet you have a covering by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Outstanding pics today guys! Definitely was a very picturesque scene out there with snow pasted to everything. Sure wish I had more time to take pics this morning, but had to get going. The drive into work was phenomenal. Drove through some wooded areas, and with the snow caking to all the trees, and also the way some of them were hanging low over the highway was AWESOME! Felt like I was driving on a road I had never driven on before, even though I go that way everyday lol. Storm totals here are 0.37" of rain, followed by 3.9" of VERY wet snow. Probably on the order of 6-8:1. Guessing total liquid fell in the 0.80-0.90" range. This easily makes my favorite system of the season, even though it wasn't the heaviest snowfall (4.6" Jan 12th). I love these slow moving/dynamic storm systems. Was very fun and challenging to track. It's also somewhat satisfying seeing a rain event transition over to an appreciable snowfall. Many times changeover events here end with a small coating at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Still light snow ongoing. From a disturbance, not from this system, but it has been flurries/light snow on and off through most of the day, and this, combined with clouds, have allowed us to maintain most of our snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Will be interesting to see what the lake bands do tonight. There is some good ones to my south and west right now but it seems the RGEM wants to lift them to 94 overnight. Will see. BTW, still sitting around 32F, and the last bits of snow mostly soaked into the grass. While you can still find an isolated patch in a sheltered area, as well as some plopped snow from poles and car hoods, the ground is basically totally bare here, at quick glance wouldnt think it snowed AT ALL last night, much less over 2 inches. As close as DTW area still has much better patches of snow left and just and north/west of there its still a solid covering, which is all a product of that L tracking overtop of Detroit leaving us in the mid-upper 30s all day. Knew the storm would bust, but geez wanted to retain some of the white. Knowing that a mild week is ahead, its not a major issue (if we would be in the deepfreeze all week Id be P*SSED). BTW, storm total here was 0.29" precip, 2.2" snow. Looks like DTW was 0.37" precip, 3.0" snow (obviously that 4pm climate report was an error...those things are always prelim and wrong half the time anyway guys, itll be fixed for the final report). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah. I even find the snowfall of 1.7" before midnight last night to be highly suspect. There's no way they got 1.7" from 0.09" liquid. One of those numbers is obviously wrong, but will it ever get fixed? There wasn't 20:1 ratios. I get annoyed when the data for the big climate sites gets muddled. 1.7" on 2/23 and 1.3" on 2/24 for a storm total of 3.0" at DTW. Keep in mind those 4pm clim summaries are very prelim and frequently have errors. Flakes fell periodically throughout the day (after morning bouts of rain), but just a trace additional. In this part of town, all the accumulation fell from 10:30pm to 4am. Also the 1.7" was legit at DTW at midnight, total winterwonderland less than an hour after onset. They had a killer burst between 11 and 12 where the flakes were so huge, as funny as it sounds, I noticed when cleaning off the snowboard that early ratios were clearly much better than 10-1 despite a temp of 32F and very warm ground temps causing cement to mainly be wet and the snow to have a very slushy appearance. Once the flakes calmed down the ratios plummeted to probably 7 or 8-1. The day by day breakdown looks funny, but it was a funny storm dtw 2/23- pcp 0.09", snw 1.7" 2/24- pcp 0.28", snw 1.3" imby 2/23- pcp 0.07", snw 1.1" 2/24- pcp 0.22", snw 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 1.7" on 2/23 and 1.3" on 2/24 for a storm total of 3.0" at DTW. Keep in mind those 4pm clim summaries are very prelim and frequently have errors. Flakes fell periodically throughout the day (after morning bouts of rain), but just a trace additional. In this part of town, all the accumulation fell from 10:30pm to 4am. Also the 1.7" was legit at DTW at midnight, total winterwonderland less than an hour after onset. They had a killer burst between 11 and 12 where the flakes were so huge, as funny as it sounds, I noticed when cleaning off the snowboard that early ratios were clearly much better than 10-1 despite a temp of 32F and very warm ground temps causing cement to mainly be wet and the snow to have a very slushy appearance. Once the flakes calmed down the ratios plummeted to probably 7 or 8-1. The day by day breakdown looks funny, but it was a funny storm dtw 2/23- pcp 0.09", snw 1.7" 2/24- pcp 0.28", snw 1.3" imby 2/23- pcp 0.07", snw 1.1" 2/24- pcp 0.22", snw 1.1" Looks like the correct data of 1.3 for yesterday was put in on the midnight climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 HRRR only runs out to 15 hours... It seemed as if the High Res models started to capitulate around 5pm. It was then when we started to relize all bets were off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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