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Feb 23-24th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Probably snowing close to 1" per hour out there! 6"-7" seems likely in the end!

Looking damn good here too my friend. Snow is plastered to the window screen now outside my second story window. Just a quick wake up here as the .commute back in starts at 4 a.m. It might be a good call to just leave sooner but I need sleep. It's tough to miss this thing too though...

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Looking damn good here too my friend. Snow is plastered to the window screen now outside my second story window. Just a quick wake up here as the .commute back in starts at 4 a.m. It might be a good call to just leave sooner but I need sleep. It's tough to miss this thing too though...

My evergreen trees are plastered. Gotta get some sleep now. Definitely have to move some snow in the morning! Looks like a small break SW of here, then more to come from NW IL. :santa:

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Since I posted 50 minutes ago, there's over an inch on the ground, looks like 1.5. There was a bit of a dry slot to the south and west, which apparently has filled back in. We might get a half-hour break in the snow coming up, then it looks like it's really going to throw down. NOAA AFD earlier said the heaviest snow would start around 4 AM local time, which looks pretty much on the money.

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Ay up...about ready to throw in the towel. Getting very impatient waiting for that precip to arrive from SEMI/SWON for the last 5 hours. It went from a healthy band to pockets of spotty dbz's over Oxford and Brant Counties and City of Hamilton. Each time it advances this way, it just craps out and dissipates. So much for our 4" overnights...though lots of activity building back over Lambton County and Lake Huron. Who even knows. 6-8" is the forecast....not going to happen is it.

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Ay up...about ready to throw in the towel. Getting very impatient waiting for that precip to arrive from SEMI/SWON for the last 5 hours. It went from a healthy band to pockets of spotty dbz's over Oxford and Brant Counties and City of Hamilton. Each time it advances this way, it just craps out and dissipates. So much for our 4" overnights...though lots of activity building back over Lambton County and Lake Huron. Who even knows. 6-8" is the forecast....not going to happen is it.

This might end up being even a bigger bust than I thought. Like maybe a sloppy coating?

What I don't get is why does a hobbyist/weenie like me sees this a mile away while trained METS are oblivious?

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I just went out to measure and bring in my cocorahs rain gauge cylinder before the water in it freezes. Late this evening I only had about an inch left on the ground. The heavy snow band finally went through after midnight. It went through fairly fast, but the flakes were huge. I was shocked to measure nearly 4 inches. The snow rate in that band must have been incredible. The snow may be wet, but there is a 2+ inch layer that is extremely fluffy and airy. I can't remember the last time I saw everything plastered with thick, clumpy snow like this. It looks pretty wild.

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This is so hard to judge where the heaviest snow has fallen... sporadic pockets of snow all over it's like watching pop corn storms in the summer. Anyways...Fudge I'm worried no one will even get to 4" to at least verify my 4"-8" forecast for JXN, LAN, Battle Creek. I think my 3-5 will verify for DTW by morning.

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This might end up being even a bigger bust than I thought. Like maybe a sloppy coating?

What I don't get is why does a hobbyist/weenie like me sees this a mile away while trained METS are oblivious?

??? I tried to tell you guys all afternoon. It was plain as day that there wasn't a good moisture field with it. NWS on the other had has to follow protocal so from what I'm told most of the time they are bounded by the models and a list of check boxes than eventually funnels down into a snowfall amount.

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This might end up being even a bigger bust than I thought. Like maybe a sloppy coating?

What I don't get is why does a hobbyist/weenie like me sees this a mile away while trained METS are oblivious?

Probably the weenie in all those mets holding out dire hope. This is maddening.

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??? I tried to tell you guys all afternoon. It was plain as day that there wasn't a good moisture field with it. NWS on the other had has to follow protocal so from what I'm told most of the time they are bounded by the models and a list of check boxes than eventually funnels down into a snowfall amount.

Nah, not blaming you. There is protocol and such. But what I notice is...EC Toronto won't act on these big winter events until after an adjacent NWS office pulls the trigger. They were toting too much uncertainty in the big picture up until DTX went winter storm warning. Then suddenly they were issuing warnings up the board causing a big time media frenzy with all those journalists playing weatherman making calls for doomsday snows. Just how I see it. Same goes for severe thunderstorm, tornado, or other winter events. EC is completely oblivious until after something happens...or until an NWS office says it's coming.

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Light snow now, round 1 winding down.Gonna catch some z's now, wake up in a few hours to see if there's anything worth staying up for...still a thundersnow virgin :(

Nope. Instead I wake up to the Warning canceled and DTX expecting less than an additional inch of accumulation. Which would still leave me without a 4" snowstorm for the season. Which kinda sucks

'night again....

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Probably the weenie in all those mets holding out dire hope. This is maddening.

Meteorology takes experience and knowledge. It takes years of watching these storms to understand their tendencies. Wxstn74/Bill Deeder and I saw this from a mile away. Read his blog. We both noted the storm was short on moisture to begin with and had a track that climatologically produces 4-8 inches max. Everyone only wants to hear the big numbers and then whines when the low amts verify. Same as how everyone loves JB b/c he goes guns a blazing and falls on his face.

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