stormspotterlive Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Currently the storm prediction center in the map below does have us in the 5% range with a slight risk just south and east in cape may area and southeast Delaware. Though the potential for that to be brought north west some does exist as I will explain below. As seen in other forums it looks as if there will be a large temperature spread tomorrow. New model runs now hinting at a potential squall line with the front tomorrow after new. It appears as the low strengthens shear profiles will increase across portions of our area. Instability will not be too great so thunder and lightning maybe limited but the potential for a line of heavy rain and gusty winds up to 60 mph with the front are possible. Lets see what the High resolution Nam says. Per latest 18z 4KM Nam run it is suggesting a well define squall line blows on through the area tomorrow evening between 5-9pm Now this is just 1 model and does not mean this is what will happen but if it were to come to friction severe weather with wind being the primary threat would make it as far north as Trenton. As for dynamics the18z Nam for what ever it is worth for Philadelphia despite weak cape does pop some weak lift values of -1.5 and has the sweat index getting to 338.5 Additionally PW values get to just a little over 1.00 which for this time of year is pretty decent. some of the other models like the euro and 4km wrf are hinting at storms tomorrow evening. Ultimately we will need to see a period of sun tomorrow afternoon for anything impressive and the large temperature spread may limit storm potential the more north you are. Personally I want to see what 00z data says tonight if trends continue we could see the storm prediction centers slight risk extended a bit more north to accommodate this potential line with the front for a early season thunderstorm treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Severe threat probably only goes as far north as the warm front gets. Airmass will be rather stable north of front...doesn't mean it can't be breezy or even windy but severe threat will quickly diminish north of that warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Severe threat probably only goes as far north as the warm front gets. Airmass will be rather stable north of front...doesn't mean it can't be breezy or even windy but severe threat will quickly diminish north of that warm front. Yup we shall see how far north it gets it may even stop at Philly which would limit the threat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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