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NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
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Just looking at radar, it may be a little too light already, but just saying what it shows. It sort of tries to weaken that batch of precip as it moves ENE from NY state and western MA and CT. Kind of what we were talking about earlier.

Stuff over IN-OH looks pretty healthy...has a convective appeal. Even some significant convection developing over E KY. Warm air coming over cooler dry air...I think someone gets dumped on. I bet 00z NAM holds serve.

PS - springlike smell is gone from the air tonight...definitely has that metallic/ice crystal smell.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I could see the NAM sort of having the right idea but I think that secondary would probably bomb too late for us. It was entertaining to see the solution though at 18z for tomorrow night.

For laughs, look at what it spits out here at 33 hours....TSSN with 0C at 850mb, lol...talk about isothermal snow bomb

http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KORH.txt

Yeah that's pretty sweet - but it's also pretty common for excessive deepening raters. True, let's see this 00z run erase or support the notion.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Stuff over IN-OH looks pretty healthy...has a convective appeal. Even some significant convection developing over E KY. Warm air coming over cooler dry air...I think someone gets dumped on. I bet 00z NAM holds serve.

PS - springlike smell is gone from the air tonight...definitely has that metallic/ice crystal smell.

Agree that spring feel went away around 4 today with that strong period of winds. Man o man overachiever would be nice for a change.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Will, following these trends, do you think southern NH misses most of the first round now?

I'm not sure...I think they'll prob still get some in the monads...but the heaviest might be south. The RUC still lifted everything northeast and got S NH with a few inches of snow. It gets pretty decent lift into S NH still.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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Agree that spring feel went away around 4 today with that strong period of winds. Man o man overachiever would be nice for a change.

The wind on the shoreline was impressive today. Made opening car doors, holding my 5 year old's hand difficult.

I hope you get a nice present.

Matty Noyes with an interesting take:

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/02/incredible-if-youve-ever-wondered-how-meteorologists-can-be-uncertain-hours-before-a-storm-heres-you.html

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klw

klw

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Does my memory serve me right that last season 10-11, NAM would often come in with suddenly higher than the others QPF about a day out from the event and the others would often follow? Or did that just happen once and it didn't verify but we all hoped it would?

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