NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

[mahk_webstah]

the reason this thing is bumping south is on the radar just east of maine.

[CT Rain]

Difference between GFS and NAM is notable on the bufkit profiles here....NAM has like 35-40 microbars per second in the SG region while the GFS is about 25 microbars per second and its centered slightly below the SG region.

Sounds like most gfs/nam battles. -25ubar/sec ain't bad for gfs though.

[OKpowdah]

Congrats Sam!

Did you make any maps since last night?

Thanks! I'm in the middle of one now. I'm just taking the 18z NAM verbatim lol

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks!! Yep, Wisconsin-Madison!

Annual snow?

[CT Rain]

ryan ....lol

as of this afternoon no body was calling for anything of note in boston

what do you have for down town boston accums.

Not sure for Boston proper I really haven't looked and am on my phone.

The thing is there may be little accumulation but not because of things like warm ground etc. that's a crappy argument on march 30 lol

[ORH_wxman]

Sounds like most gfs/nam battles. -25ubar/sec ain't bad for gfs though.

Yeah it still has some decent lift...its probably closer to reality...the NAM was kind of obscene. It had the lift a bit higher up probably because of the much stronger LLJ.

[40/70 Benchmark]

the reason this thing is bumping south is on the radar just east of maine.

Unless you score a 15" spot tmw, $20 to the board.

Jeff will next week.

[Damage In Tolland]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks!! Yep, Wisconsin-Madison!

Sweet...congrats

[Ginx snewx]

the reason this thing is bumping south is on the radar just east of maine.

Yea we said that yesterday, that surprise snowstorm for Whiteface, Jay, Stowe etc was key. FYI I dropped 15 degrees in two hours. 37/24

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks! I'm in the middle of one now. I'm just taking the 18z NAM verbatim lol

I'd like a copy of the clown map for starters

[CoastalWx]

Like 5 miles south?

eh... 2" would make me smile

How does the wind to the south (ie south coast/Cape) look?

Not that windy. Maybe a tstm near that area come early evening.

[ski MRG]

the reason this thing is bumping south is on the radar just east of maine.

I really was surprised how busy the NW wind got at 2k this afternoon, I can see why.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Annual snow?

He hates snow. All severe, all the time now

(and hackey sack wx)

I;m reading through the posts from earlier today. Some mighty egos being deflated

[Ginx snewx]

Any reason why?

That produces nice weenie maps

Well it is actually pretty good on QPF placement and thermal fields inside 24.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not that windy. Maybe a tstm near that area come early evening.

This is good (personal stuff)

Thanks as usual

[ORH_wxman]

I'd like a copy of the clown map for starters

NAM clown map was ridiculous for our area, but part of that was because it nails us with more snow tomorrow night....which is unlikely to happen

[N. OF PIKE]

Not sure for Boston proper I really haven't looked and am on my phone.

The thing is there may be little accumulation but not because of things like warm ground etc. that's a crappy argument on march 30 lol

so there will be lil accumulations because of poor lift and or BL temps being borderline? kinda what most figured

one poster mentioned warm ground and this is a garbage argument in april or may if rates are high

hopefully this busts positive

i like what mark webster is saying and they have been mentioning this in the NYC forum....that storm E of maine is CRANKIN

[CoastalWx]

Just tired of half my posts which there is nothing wrong with always getting deleted.

I'm hopeful we all see snow..but I feel like Scooter and raising the flags. Alot can go wrong

Everyone has their flags up, but I'm starting to think CT may do well all things considered...more like your high elevations on into western CT. Like Ryan said, I think a narrow but strong area of echoes moves in and up into ORH area. Just be reasonable. 3 days ago it looked like srly gales. Pretty sharp turn of events.

[ChrisM]

i really like chris M's home locale for a quick dump 4-6 like of snow tomm am.

Yeah I've been going with 4 spot 5. We do well in these setups with lots of elevations > 1k

[HoarfrostHubb]

Well it is actually pretty good on QPF placement and thermal fields inside 24.

It bit last week (the 18th), but that was a pretty weird case. I will give it a pass

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM clown map was ridiculous for our area, but part of that was because it nails us with more snow tomorrow night....which is unlikely to happen

I know. I had seen it posted earlier. Was just hoping Sam would just trace some of the contours and give it the same amounts.

Been a while since there was a decent threat.

This is fun

[ORH_wxman]

The GFS BUFKIT profile for BOS was actually pretty good...it had even stronger lift than the ORH profile for some reason...close to 30 microbars per second centered around 600mb.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

T-minus 75 minutes until the NAM drops a MOAB on this thread

[CoastalWx]

Like 5 miles south?

eh... 2" would make me smile

How does the wind to the south (ie south coast/Cape) look?

It still seems like you guys are looking like the better area, but maybe your area and Kevin aren't as far apart as first thought?

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM clown map was ridiculous for our area, but part of that was because it nails us with more snow tomorrow night....which is unlikely to happen

I dunno about that ; I said in the opener, let's not disregard this solution... We're inside 30 hours in a scenario that requires a finite mesh. The NAM more than just seems to do well with these thermal compression scenarios, and having a potent warm front park S of the area while a huge wind max roars over top is real real dicey. Rapid cyclogenesis scenarios are no unwarranted. The NAM just spins up a secondary at bombogen rates and clobbers the area while doing so.

[CT Rain]

Everyone has their flags up, but I'm starting to think CT may do well all things considered...more like your high elevations on into western CT. Like Ryan said, I think a narrow but strong area of echoes moves in and up into ORH area. Just be reasonable. 3 days ago it looked like srly gales. Pretty sharp turn of events.

Longitude FTW

[CoastalWx]

The GFS BUFKIT profile for BOS was actually pretty good...it had even stronger lift than the ORH profile for some reason...close to 30 microbars per second centered around 600mb.

GFS looked very banded. It had various cities displaying different omega profiles at 12z too. I wished it had more of a general deep layer lift.

[Damage In Tolland]

Everyone has their flags up, but I'm starting to think CT may do well all things considered...more like your high elevations on into western CT. Like Ryan said, I think a narrow but strong area of echoes moves in and up into ORH area. Just be reasonable. 3 days ago it looked like srly gales. Pretty sharp turn of events.

Yeah we went from a torch and cane gusts to a snowstorm ..all that with no blocking

[Damage In Tolland]

What time should I get up for this? 4:30..will it be snowing yet?