NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

[Damage In Tolland]

I didn't even look at the BTV WRF, but that's what I was wondering. Maybe not weaken significantly, but perhaps max out there. But then again, the NAM and SREFs don't really agree with that and do favor areas a little more north.

That isn't all snow on the WRF is it?

[CT Rain]

That isn't all snow on the WRF is it?

Probably is. No snow south of NH though.

[CT Rain]

I didn't even look at the BTV WRF, but that's what I was wondering. Maybe not weaken significantly, but perhaps max out there. But then again, the NAM and SREFs don't really agree with that and do favor areas a little more north.

Some of the globals did seem to be awfully south like euro and uk?

[dendrite]

is that all snow though?

Ptype algorithms say the brunt of that is snow in N CT. It's a quick thump though with >0.50" QPF in 3hrs over NW CT between 9-12z tomorrow morning.

[Ginx snewx]

Pissed I missed the non weather posts but I am sure SkiVT6 ? is pleased.

Very quick temp DP drop today, can not get a real grasp on the dynamics here, the mesos which are designed for these exact scenarios are juiced yet I can totally see a Euro repeat of two Saturdays ago where it falls apart. This progressive pattern really stinks for this storm as our newly accepted into grad school hackey sack playing weenie map drawing Sam pointed out. Coulda been a contendah.

[moneypitmike]

I mentioned 1/12/2011 completely non-jokingly yesterday

Seriously, this has significant similarities

I can't remember that far back, Sam. Can you refresh?

Are you making a map for this?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefully the lift craps the bed before it gets here.

[Ginx snewx]

Rootin' for ya... last year SNE won every time while we were dry as a bone, this year the opposite, not that they're connected...

Funny how some years (this year in SNE!) you agonize over 1 vs 2 inches, others you ignore a half a foot (last year in SNE!).

last night we had what was supposed to be a relatively benign FROPA with some flurries after an evening in the 50s and we wound up with 6-8 inches of flurries in about 5 hours, after a temp drop of 15 degrees in about an hour. 64" on the season IMBY (seasonal average around 60). Wish I hadn't sold the John Deere blower before we left C MA.

Location?

[moneypitmike]

Down to 34 off a high of 44 so that's a start. Albany's NOAA Wx Radio is calling for 1-3" in the N Ct Valley so we'll see.

I just realized this week that my Subaru factory radio has Weather bands. Only had the car for two years...

Nice--your stealing my cool air again, Chris.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Agreed.

I just deleted all the innuendo, sexual posts.

Sorry Bob and Brian (etc etc etc)

When I first started looking at this last week (original Feb 23 disorganized mess thread) I figured it would be a few raindrops/mixed for lucky folks

This could be soothing

[CoastalWx]

Some of the globals did seem to be awfully south like euro and uk?

Yeah they did. Pretty weird to have that difference, but I think the euro is too meager. Maybe it has the right idea? However, just seems too meager. But even the HRRR seems to like areas south of Rt 2.

[Ginx snewx]

Congrats Sam, Wisconsin right?

[CT Rain]

Yeah they did. Pretty weird to have that difference, but I think the euro is too meager. Maybe it has the right idea? However, just seems too meager. But even the HRRR seems to like areas south of Rt 2.

Seems like we're honing in on where best potential for mesoscale lift sets up. Relatively narrow band of strong frontogenesis and warm advection as llj starts working. Still too early to say if it's the pike or if it's dxr.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah they did. Pretty weird to have that difference, but I think the euro is too meager. Maybe it has the right idea? However, just seems too meager. But even the HRRR seems to like areas south of Rt 2.

Like 5 miles south?

eh... 2" would make me smile

How does the wind to the south (ie south coast/Cape) look?

[Bostonseminole]

Hope we get snow, this arguing is a waste of time.

[N. OF PIKE]

noyes says cooler dp's have advected in....and we have "cold potential" now

[N. OF PIKE]

Location?

my guess (n greens)

[CT Rain]

noyes says cooler dp's have advected in....and we have "cold potential" now

What happened to the warm ground and warm air mass that was the topic du jour 6 hours ago?

Earlier this afternoon was one of the few times we were run over by anti-weenies. Tends to happen after several consecutive severe weather or snow busts.

[Damage In Tolland]

noyes says cooler dp's have advected in....and we have "cold potential" now

Just tired of half my posts which there is nothing wrong with always getting deleted.

I'm hopeful we all see snow..but I feel like Scooter and raising the flags. Alot can go wrong

[N. OF PIKE]

i really like chris M's home locale for a quick dump 4-6 like of snow tomm am.

[ORH_wxman]

What happened to the warm ground and warm air mass that was the topic du jour 6 hours ago?

Earlier this afternoon was one of the few times we were run over by anti-weenies. Tends to happen after several consecutive severe weather or snow busts.

Sun angle might be a big issue around 09z when its moving in.

[Ginx snewx]

No MM 5 today,sucks

[CT Rain]

Sun angle might be a big issue around 09z when its moving in.

Yup. February is just brutal for snow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Enough with the banter about posts. Stick to the topic.

[N. OF PIKE]

What happened to the warm ground and warm air mass that was the topic du jour 6 hours ago?

Earlier this afternoon was one of the few times we were run over by anti-weenies. Tends to happen after several consecutive severe weather or snow busts.

ryan ....lol

as of this afternoon no body was calling for anything of note in boston

what do you have for down town boston accums.

[OKpowdah]

Congrats Sam, Wisconsin right?

Thanks!! Yep, Wisconsin-Madison!

[HoarfrostHubb]

No MM 5 today,sucks

Any reason why?

That produces nice weenie maps

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks!! Yep, Wisconsin-Madison!

Congrats Sam!

Did you make any maps since last night?

[ORH_wxman]

Difference between GFS and NAM is notable on the bufkit profiles here....NAM has like 35-40 microbars per second in the SG region while the GFS is about 25 microbars per second and its centered slightly below the SG region.

[N. OF PIKE]

I'm hopeful we all see snow..but I feel like Scooter and raising the flags. Alot can go wrong

mine as well get juiced up about this now....at least with some meso models showing your area gettin a couple...i mean in a couple months you will have NOTHIN to track/follow/etc

you have elevation and you have more precip gettin in your area before any heating of the day issues may slow accums like they may in E SNE CP .