Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

Recommended Posts

Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I don't think it was bad at all. Truth may have been between the two runs of the Euro, but it clearly showed an intense band moving across. It's always a shade light on QPF, I think this is as good as it gets.

no big deal. to each his own really. like i said earlier, i think it had the placement well, but i think "a shade light" might be pushing it. i think HVN had .67" of LE. the 00z euro gave them .18"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 872
  • Created
  • Last Reply
tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

To Nzucker......I remember when I was doing wxobs in Jaffrey back in the 90's that We had back to back storms there...In 95-96 I had 168" of snow for that season...It was amazing..Taunton and Gray Maine confirmed my totals...It was quite the year..amazing snow...We moved to Hull Mass..It was crappy snowfall wise..of course this was living 400 ft from the beach and then last June we moved to Maine and thinking it was going to be big year for snow and all..Not much at all..We've had like 4 storms in all..significant..no...boring..yes...I have only used a plow operator once! Just one of those crazy lame ass years for snow here in Maine..Last year,my mom's plow operator ran out of places to put the snow...go figure..It is what it is..but I'll tell ya..living in the Monadnocks was something..that elevation..I was at 1080feet and live up past the ball park in Jaffrey carriage hill drive area..those were the years!

Last year I-95 in C.Maine caught the good bands. AUG had about 15" each from 12/27 and 1/12, while MBY 30 miles NNW got 8" and 7". Of course I was driving in AUG during both events. On 12/27 we were headed to PWM (wife's post-op dr appt) and bailed at Wendy's for lunch, hoping things would calm down. After 20 minutes in which we only occasionally could see the Irving station next door (+SN with wind gusts 50+), we called the dr to reschedule. 10 miles up Rt 27 and and it was back to -SN.

Looks like the front end of this event is a non-starter here, and Maine is totally dependent on the secondary. Hope we don't get leapfrogged.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

no big deal. to each his own really. like i said earlier, i think it had the placement well, but i think "a shade light" might be pushing it. i think HVN had .67" of LE. the 00z euro gave them .18"

When the globals tend to reduce their QPF over a specific area (like the GFS showed the surge of omega fizzling as it moved east) and really signaling a QPF jackpot in a certain area it makes me hesitant to take a NAM-like solution region wide. The idea it had was right in CT/SE NY but the globals were right to start reducing forcing east. Using the ideas from a mesoscale model and blending it with the globals is still by far the best way to go.

What made this event a challenge was the Euro just sucking even 6 hours before the event. Very bizarre.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Phil/Ryan et al, what's your take on Loon/Mt Washington area with this second punch? RGEM looks similar to the later GFS runs. Good back end thump I think?

Dendrite or someone was talking freezing mess?

Haven't looked, Scott. Looked briefly at VT and I think they get crushed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

As usual the NAM had a good idea with a band of strong lift in the mesoscale where that LLJ ran up against some potent frontogenesis colocated with good warm advection.

However, the NAM (and most mesoscale models) tend to keep the band of strong lift too wide and in reality it's a smaller and more narrow/localized band. Perfect reason to take the ideas from mesoscale models and incorporate the placement/thoughts of global models in terms of identifying the best forcing.

I'll have to be honest last night I thought a band of 3-6 was possible somewhere if we set up a batch of strong enough mesoscale forcing. Globals insisted it would be over CT and NAM/HRRR/RGEM showed the potential for it to go to town. Unfortunately even a 18 hour forecast can have large swings (75 miles) or relatively localized/narrow features.

I think the NAM had the right idea of strong lift, but was just way too aggressive over a larger area. It did not comprehend how the stuff would just crap the bed as it moved east...basically it was too strong for too long with the WAA forcing. It did not weaken and slide the LLJ out fast enough. I thought the GFS had the idea of more banded precip and it sort of worked out. You could see how it hinted at it in the BUFKIT profiles. It wasn't perfect, but I think even the 12z and moreso 18z run has a weenie max QPF heading into CT. That's when we started thinking that maybe western areas might do ok if indeed the lift will weaken. I think at that point, we mentioned maybe the euro had the right idea, but was way to paltry with QPF. So take a blend of GFS and Euro, but understand the strong forcing potential on the NAM. The HRRR started confirming the idea of this heading south. I even sent Kevin a text to step off the cliff and apparently Ryan did too...lol. I will say my thoughts from the morning were definitely not the same as the ones I had after 6pm..lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

When the globals tend to reduce their QPF over a specific area (like the GFS showed the surge of omega fizzling as it moved east) and really signaling a QPF jackpot in a certain area it makes me hesitant to take a NAM-like solution region wide. The idea it had was right in CT/SE NY but the globals were right to start reducing forcing east. Using the ideas from a mesoscale model and blending it with the globals is still by far the best way to go.

What made this event a challenge was the Euro just sucking even 6 hours before the event. Very bizarre.

00z euro from the night before wasn't that bad. It also nailed ORD not getting the snow amoutns that the NAM and GFS were giving them. 12z euro just had a bad hiccup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

This statement coming from one of the biggest tantrum throwers on the board.

...Kevin obsession, maybe?

From our best friend SnowNh...

"Thanks for the great analysis once again. There was no reason for the last storm to trend weaker and SE last storm with the +NAO.

Can't wait until I'm ripping SN and you're RA!

New SREFs are nice and toasty.... Trend South Fail! Trend for not getting SNE snow Prevail!

:pimp: Nice analysis. Oh and nice meltdown earlier. This winter has clearly gotten to you. Enjoy your RA!"

The fail to post ratio is astronomical

Link to comment
Share on other sites
danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

As usual the NAM had a good idea with a band of strong lift in the mesoscale where that LLJ ran up against some potent frontogenesis colocated with good warm advection.

However, the NAM (and most mesoscale models) tend to keep the band of strong lift too wide and in reality it's a smaller and more narrow/localized band. Perfect reason to take the ideas from mesoscale models and incorporate the placement/thoughts of global models in terms of identifying the best forcing.

I'll have to be honest last night I thought a band of 3-6 was possible somewhere if we set up a batch of strong enough mesoscale forcing. Globals insisted it would be over CT and NAM/HRRR/RGEM showed the potential for it to go to town. Unfortunately even a 18 hour forecast can have large swings (75 miles) or relatively localized/narrow features.

I didn't get a chance to look at any of the Hi-res models last night... but just about every model showed a batch of vigorous lift/WAA punching into the "cold" dome (if you can call a 32-36 F airmass cold) ... hence the excitement yesterday.that was building on the boards. But I am absolutely shocked that the highest QPF verified where it did ... when I woke up and saw 4-5 in N Fairfield Cty this morning and 3" in HVN (!!!), I was stunned. As was OKX... as often is the case, the band of heavy snow turned out to be more concentrated/narrow than shown by all models - I'm just somewhat surprised that this occurred to this degree with this setup.

Also, looks like NAM's thermal profile verified best (again, this is not a rigorous post mortem), the Euro's pattern of QPF did best (thanks for the hi res image Messenger... it did have it approx right but too dry), as for what the HRR/ARW/RUC showed, I haven't checked...

Another reason why snowfall forecasting is one of the most difficult tasks of any met. No one would really care if it was 0.62" or 0.17" of rain... but when that difference is 5" vs. a slushy inch, the public scrutiny is inescapable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

When the globals tend to reduce their QPF over a specific area (like the GFS showed the surge of omega fizzling as it moved east) and really signaling a QPF jackpot in a certain area it makes me hesitant to take a NAM-like solution region wide. The idea it had was right in CT/SE NY but the globals were right to start reducing forcing east. Using the ideas from a mesoscale model and blending it with the globals is still by far the best way to go.

What made this event a challenge was the Euro just sucking even 6 hours before the event. Very bizarre.

haha...yeah i never bought that outcome. those runs from yesterday afternoon would have been widespread advisory / low end warning.

but the nam and srefs gave me some confidence that the euro was coming in too light.

i felt pretty good about CT getting accumulation. i did think W MA would do better. i figured the euro had the surge lifting into NYS...so maybe blend that east a bit with the NCEP products banging western areas so hard....that the berks would do better.

overall though - after having a good week last week, guidance had a tough time with the evolution of this system all week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

yeah i'm not sure what it is, but on so many events this winter, a lot of products have just kind of sucked on the details inside of 24 hours. i can't really figure it out.

the NCEP products were far far too bullish the further N and E you went, but they did get the good mid-level punch right as it entered SW NE. i don't think .15" QPF would have been able to drop 2-4" of snow in this kind of antecedent environment - so the euro definitely had that wrong.

i think big-picture wise guidance has been pretty good (there have been so few events it's hard to say with much certainty i suppose) this winter. like last week with the non-storm...that was a pretty solid performance for 7 days of NWP.

eh, i don't know. :lol:

Can you imagine trying to forecast an event like this 20 years ago?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Phil Ryan thanks..yeah I'm up north now. Heading to the slopes today for a warmup afternoon..then 2-3 days of heavy skiing.

Better snow!

enjoy it!

probably kinda cruddish today with spits and spats of sn / fzdz but better tonight and tomorrow.

hopefully they don't shut the lifts down on you thanks to the WNW G to 70.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I didn't get a chance to look at any of the Hi-res models last night... but just about every model showed a batch of vigorous lift/WAA punching into the "cold" dome (if you can call a 32-36 F airmass cold) ... hence the excitement yesterday.that was building on the boards. But I am absolutely shocked that the highest QPF verified where it did ... when I woke up and saw 4-5 in N Fairfield Cty this morning and 3" in HVN (!!!), I was stunned. As was OKX... as often is the case, the band of heavy snow turned out to be more concentrated/narrow than shown by all models - I'm just somewhat surprised that this occurred to this degree with this setup.

Also, looks like NAM's thermal profile verified best (again, this is not a rigorous post mortem), the Euro's pattern of QPF did best (thanks for the hi res image Messenger... it did have it approx right but too dry), as for what the HRR/ARW/RUC showed, I haven't checked...

Another reason why snowfall forecasting is one of the most difficult tasks of any met. No one would really care if it was 0.62" or 0.17" of rain... but when that difference is 5" vs. a slushy inch, the public scrutiny is inescapable.

Yup... hi-res models had the idea but you have to make it more concentrated. Globals had the right idea weakening forcing to the east. Again I would have been more excited had the Euro jumped on board but when the 00z run this morning was pathetic!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

yeah...guidance has come a long long way...

but what, 3 days ago(?), the euro said today would be like 63F in BOS with screaming southerlies. :lol:

LOL, if only that could happen to next week's storm.

While it did look like CT was more in the game as time went on yesterday, I didn't think ORH and BOS would get as shut out as they did. It literally vaporized as the best forcing got shunted ESE. I think the 15z SREFs had this yesterday...they had a big QPF bullseye and shunted it ESE, but they were too far north with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...