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NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Thats why they pay you guys the big bucks....lol, I would not want to be in your shoes having to put out a forecast this winter

It's been the trend to see things really go to hell within 18-24 hrs. Other than the Jan 19th storm. Even that storm and the one prior to that had some surprises. Yesterday's 18z models and early evening meso updates started to really shift things south.

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neweathereye

neweathereye

Posted
Posted

To Nzucker......I remember when I was doing wxobs in Jaffrey back in the 90's that We had back to back storms there...In 95-96 I had 168" of snow for that season...It was amazing..Taunton and Gray Maine confirmed my totals...It was quite the year..amazing snow...We moved to Hull Mass..It was crappy snowfall wise..of course this was living 400 ft from the beach and then last June we moved to Maine and thinking it was going to be big year for snow and all..Not much at all..We've had like 4 storms in all..significant..no...boring..yes...I have only used a plow operator once! Just one of those crazy lame ass years for snow here in Maine..Last year,my mom's plow operator ran out of places to put the snow...go figure..It is what it is..but I'll tell ya..living in the Monadnocks was something..that elevation..I was at 1080feet and live up past the ball park in Jaffrey carriage hill drive area..those were the years!

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

Optimistically about 1/2" here. Disaster like pretty much everything else this winter. I was encouraged when I saw radars to my west at 2 AM, but by 4 AM I knew we were going to bust. That front end deal got eaten alive in the confluence and dry air over us. Meso models really handled this well last night.

Currently a little bit of light freezing drizzle. Mid-levels went above freezing about 30 minutes ago. Hoping we can pull something off on the backside of the secondary later tonight, but I think it's a rain and sleet job. There could be a little upslope if Mother Nature throws me a bone later tonight and tomorrow morning.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Optimistically about 1/2" here. Disaster like pretty much everything else this winter. I was encouraged when I saw radars to my west at 2 AM, but by 4 AM I knew we were going to bust. That front end deal got eaten alive in the confluence and dry air over us. Meso models really handled this well last night.

Currently a little bit of light freezing drizzle. Mid-levels went above freezing about 30 minutes ago. Hoping we can pull something off on the backside of the secondary later tonight, but I think it's a rain and sleet job. There could be a little upslope if Mother Nature throws me a bone later tonight and tomorrow morning.

0z Euro had it very well pinned in terms of where the heaviest band would be and the general motion. The 12z from yesterday was probably even a touch better.

American guidance continues to be junk. Sad really.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

solid coating here. started as sleet and rain then flipped to about an hour or two worth of steady snow.

No sleet here that I know of. Looks like it was a brief period of -ra but quicly over to -sn.

Last band about to roll in here. Pleasant over-performing considering where/what the models had 24h ago. May squeak out 0.4".

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
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0z Euro had it very well pinned in terms of where the heaviest band would be and the general motion. The 12z from yesterday was probably even a touch better.

American guidance continues to be junk. Sad really.

Euro did not handle this storm well in the medium range as it had a huge low cutting west of us, but it handled the short range pretty well. It was right on about the idea about the front end being south. I think it may have been a little skimpy on the QPF over CT, but it had the right idea overall compared to the other models, especially the NAM which was giving me a 6" paste job 24 hours ago.

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Stash

Stash

Posted
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Looks like 4" in Danbury and 5" in New Fairfield, both near the Litchfield County border. My old stomping grounds in the Western CT hills have cleaned up the past few winters it seems. Just a few mangled flakes up here in Rotterdam.

1" new here before it changed over to rain, interior Fairfield cty did very well, many spots 3+/ Post card type stuff this morning.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Euro did not handle this storm well in the medium range as it had a huge low cutting west of us, but it handled the short range pretty well. It was right on about the idea about the front end being south. I think it may have been a little skimpy on the QPF over CT, but it had the right idea overall compared to the other models, especially the NAM which was giving me a 6" paste job 24 hours ago.

agree. model blend was best overall.

if the euro had been right at 12z yesterday...no one would have seen much more than a coating of slush. some spots had nearly .4" of liquid equivalent in CT.

it had the placement right to a degree but really missed the strength of the front end push. the NAM was way overdone (no surprise there really) and the GFS was too far north as well.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Euro did not handle this storm well in the medium range as it had a huge low cutting west of us, but it handled the short range pretty well. It was right on about the idea about the front end being south. I think it may have been a little skimpy on the QPF over CT, but it had the right idea overall compared to the other models, especially the NAM which was giving me a 6" paste job 24 hours ago.

Yeah, once the Euro caught on though it definitely took first place. NCEP was right to toss the american guidance and use the Euro in entirety for this system. What will interest me is whether the american guidance is onto the right idea with a stronger system tonight/warmer, or if they are overdone. History would dictate the NAM is out to lunch again, and a slightly wetter/warmer version of last nights euro will transpire up here which means Maine gets blasted, NH and VT do pretty well.

Honestly if this continues for the foreseeable future where the american guidance is basically unusable you'd have to wonder if we'd be better served just having the Euro.

The NAM simply cannot be used at all most of the time.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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agree. model blend was best overall.

if the euro had been right at 12z yesterday...no one would have seen much more than a coating of slush. some spots had nearly .4" of liquid equivalent in CT.

it had the placement right to a degree but really missed the strength of the front end push. the NAM was way overdone (no surprise there really) and the GFS was too far north as well.

We looking at the same Euro 12z? It was off a touch on the placement, but it had solid .25"+ 3 hour totals. This is the 24h 12z euro forecast from yesterday. Shift that a few miles north and you've got your .4" LE tickling parts of CT.

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