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NAM's big storm for Feb 24th ...there's some reason to see why it can be done

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Lifted this from the previous Euro bomb thread:

For SNE proper, basically…overrunning snows break out across the area overnight and comes down at a solid moderate clip through the AM commute…

Mid level warm layers come in and flips it to pingers and light rain – maybe some ice in interior valleys , and also just below the cloud line at middle Watchusett type els….

There may then be a lull of sorts, just before an explosion of heavy action takes place all at once associated with near coastal bombogenesis… Real fast – 8 mb is 6 hours!!!!! The low explodes from the NJ coast and cuts across roughly the CC Canal then heads on up into Boston Harbor by 00z tomorrow night - down to almost 980mbs soon thereafter. During that 4-5 hour period of explosive cyclogenesis, a warning level snow falls in a narrow stripe from N CT to S NH.

Well, all I want to say to this is be careful throwing this run out.

Why? The NAM is superior when focussing cyclogenesis against steep low level baroclinic walls. This was schooled heavily during Dec 2005 event. We have a nascent thickness packing settling into the just S of SNE today on the heels of the heretofore discussed exiting deepening low up into the Maritimes... along comes a 45 vort max running just on the polarward side of that thickness packing - which intrinsically means you have a very upright frontal slope; q-g forcing over top that as huge evacuation parameters nose in aloft means the you maximize UVM. Fast UVM = fast surface development.

Frontogenic forcing is also probably extreme in a narrow corridor on the NW side of that bombing low..

That's all what we are seeing on this run in all - I'm not sure I have a problem with that if these 2 factors below verify:

1) Thickness packing along and just S of the the South Coast;

2) Very powerful v-max with associated 135kt 500mb doing a right entrance right over the top/just polarward side of that steep frontal slope.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I'll be happy if half of these amounts come to fruition.

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION

INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL

QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WILL REMAIN

AS SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...MUCH OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN

CONNECTICUT.

MAZ002-NHZ011-015-240530-

/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0009.120224T0600Z-120225T0000Z/

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-CHESHIRE NH-

WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...JAFFREY...KEENE...

PETERBOROUGH...WEARE

428 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM

EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHESHIRE COUNTY AND WESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN

NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

I'm in the None zone.

Me too, neighbor... But I'm hoping for the best, wouldn't it be nice for one time to wake up to a fresh snowfall this winter. I think it comes in with just enough intensity to give us around 1" just a few miles from the ocean while Logan Airport gets only a coating to keep futility alive.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

like the wording of quickly changing to rain in the coastal plain espescially when QPF is getting trimmed back for SNE CP that = the big middle finga for ESNE CP.

WCT is clearly in the game and most all models show better precip rates in that area.

i think i will wake tomm am to pics of ryan reporting 2 inches in HFD will posting an inch of snow w/ light /moderate intensity and bos at 35 and light snow for an hour before flipping to rain showers by 9am. i think coastal wx may see some cat paws at 8 am but that's it. lol

hopeflly the euro doesn't scale back the secondary for tomm nite for C/NNE ....go ski resorts go

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Awesome.

MAZ002-240900-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

417 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST

FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH

SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF

SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...SNOW SHOWERS...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...

THEN RAIN SHOWERS...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO

8 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER

30S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR

100 PERCENT

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The exact type of scenario that I didn't want, so of course this season delivers. :lol:

No big storm, but some crapfests to ensure no record is set. lol

It only gets used if there's more than 3".

OT--is there something screwy with the site? All the options for buttons for emoticons, bold, etc. are ghosted and not useable.

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