toronto blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Looking pretty good that we get a shot of snow early Wednesday along the occlusion. Like I mentioned earlier though, we may end up being in a bit of a minima between the snow associated with the upper low over WI/N MI and the WCB convective driven snow/ice treking through PA/NY. It'll be close though, but right now I'd only go with a couple of inches. The next thing that has to be resolved is where does the decaying H5/7 low traverse? If it gets sufficiently squashed under the weight of that confluence over Quebec, we could get an additonal couple of inches later Wednesday night into Thursday. From the NAM/GFS soundings I've seen, ZR doesn't look to be much of a problem, except for maybe some -FZDZ once/if the dryslot moves in. When it's precipitating heavily enough, it should be mostly snow (or maybe PL). Ya I'm thinking the same but maybe 3-4'' since the euro gave us 0.54 QPF. See rain being a problem with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Ya I'm thinking the same but maybe 3-4'' since the euro gave us 0.54 QPF. See rain being a problem with this system? Maybe, right near Lk Ontario, if the dryslot moves through and the winds develop just enough of a southerly component, some of the -FZDZ might turn to plain drizzle. But we're talking minimal amounts. If that 0.54" QPF off the EURO verifies, maybe, right near Lk Ontario, 0.01" would be in the form of the drizzle. The rest will mostly snow and pellets. That's the way I see it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 21Z SREF mean has trended south of the 15Z. Every little bit makes a tremendous difference in terms of p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 21Z SREF mean has trended south of the 15Z. Every little bit makes a tremendous difference in terms of p-type. Loving the trend so far.. knock on wood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 21Z SREF mean has trended south of the 15Z. Every little bit makes a tremendous difference in terms of p-type. Theres still hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 21Z SREF mean has trended south of the 15Z. Every little bit makes a tremendous difference in terms of p-type. Do you have the link for it? I'm really hoping for less ice and more snow here. I'm wondering how much further south this could end up tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Do you have the link for it? I'm really hoping for less ice and more snow here. I'm wondering how much further south this could end up tracking. It's on the NCEP MAG page along with all the other models. Also... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It's on the NCEP MAG page along with all the other models. Also... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/ Thanks. I think I originally had it in my bookmarks, but then they changed the links and I just never had it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I like to use this link for the sref...http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 looks like the 0z nam is trending south, weaker, slower, and cooler again..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Wow, 0z Nam isnt bad Canuck. We get a good 3-6", not bad. Northern GTA gets nearly 8", not bad at all with ongoing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 At least the NAM and GFS are on the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 0z NAM snow map, very nice and a bit more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Creeping closer to the snow bullseye region. Models will change plenty before this is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Turts- NAM showing about 20 inches for LSE now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Wow...cut off looks pretty sharp... Any little deviation could be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hardly expect sensible weather to come CLOSE to it, but talk of some resemblance to Feb 20, 2011 brings back a flood of memories. Totally expecting ice storm with a few inches of snow to start, end up with 10.2" of snow on 1.13" liquid precip (just a touch of sleet). The mere fact that we look to probably see SOME winter precip is good because for the past few days it was looking like wed soar into the mid-upper 50s on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Wow, 0z Nam isnt bad Canuck. We get a good 3-6", not bad. Northern GTA gets nearly 8", not bad at all with ongoing precip. Long duration 1.00" of QPF. Mostly snow, but a potpourri of SN/PL/ZR Wednesday night. I'd probably eschew any idea that this is going to be a true winter storm at this point though. Too tenuous of a setup to start getting excited attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Long duration 1.00" of QPF. Mostly snow, but a potpourri of SN/PL/ZR Wednesday night. I'd probably eschew any idea that this is going to be a true winter storm at this point though. Too tenuous of a setup to start getting excited attm. I think the models tommorow will be interesting. Looking forward to tommorow as it's trade deadline day (i'm a bit of a hockeynut lol) and I'm hoping that the leafs do something because they're terrible lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hardly expect sensible weather to come CLOSE to it, but talk of some resemblance to Feb 20, 2011 brings back a flood of memories. Totally expecting ice storm with a few inches of snow to start, end up with 10.2" of snow on 1.13" liquid precip (just a touch of sleet). The mere fact that we look to probably see SOME winter precip is good because for the past few days it was looking like wed soar into the mid-upper 50s on Wed. I said the same thing on another weather forum that I frequent. It reminds me a lot of the storm last February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is now further north and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 GFS is now further north and warmer. I wouldn't look at it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hardly expect sensible weather to come CLOSE to it, but talk of some resemblance to Feb 20, 2011 brings back a flood of memories. Totally expecting ice storm with a few inches of snow to start, end up with 10.2" of snow on 1.13" liquid precip (just a touch of sleet). The mere fact that we look to probably see SOME winter precip is good because for the past few days it was looking like wed soar into the mid-upper 50s on Wed. Any chance of a repeat just went away because you mentioned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Any chance of a repeat just went away because you mentioned it Yup, the 00Z GFS must have been eavesdropping............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I wouldn't look at it right now Well you can't just ignore a model because you don't like what it shows. I will say though that the history of storms like this (sorta like mini rex block storms) over the last couple of years is that they end up tracking further south than initially expected. So that's in our favour. And even if the GFS verified exactly as depicted though, that's still a shot of snow on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Creeping closer to the snow bullseye region. Models will change plenty before this is said and done. lol, wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Cold rain here. Be nice to wash all the salt off the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 lol, wut? He's only 2 counties South of a WSW.. Not out of the realm of possibility for him to get a decent hit with more south shifts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 He's only 2 counties South of a WSW.. Not out of the realm of possibility for him to get a decent hit with more south shifts.. Nothing points to him being even remotely near or inching towards the "snow bullseye zone" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I hardly expect sensible weather to come CLOSE to it, but talk of some resemblance to Feb 20, 2011 brings back a flood of memories. Totally expecting ice storm with a few inches of snow to start, end up with 10.2" of snow on 1.13" liquid precip (just a touch of sleet). The mere fact that we look to probably see SOME winter precip is good because for the past few days it was looking like wed soar into the mid-upper 50s on Wed. I honestly was thinking the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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