daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yup...after this I have a feeling that winter has sung its last tune... THE OPERATIONAL GFS...GEM...UKMET...AND NAM/WRF ALONG WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH WARM WILL BE BROUGHT INTO THE AREA FOR THE SNOW TO CHANGE OVER RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...AND THEN TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE EVEN A PERIOD OF SLEET TOO. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WARM AIR WILL ONLY ONLY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...LEANING MORE TOWARD GFS...GEM...NAM/WRF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SURGING NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM /PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE RUNNING 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH/...SO IT WILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE 300 MB JET STRUCTURE TO ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 There was an icestorm in April '03 after temps were near 70F and it still iced up the roads. I doubt temps in the 30s will hinder the roads from becoming icy if the temp is cold enough during the event. Bingo. April '03 was an epic ice event here. Like you say it came after several 60-70 degree days in the end of March/beginning of April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Bingo. April '03 was an epic ice event here. Like you say it came after several 60-70 degree days in the end of March/beginning of April. That storm was nuts! 3-4 days of ice then followed by a 6" snow storm. Epic! Northern oakland was powerless for almost a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yup...after this I have a feeling that winter has sung its last tune... The GFS continues to show some torchiness in the medium to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I'm actually rooting for an ice storm IMBY I guess, just don't want any more than 0.75" or the damage gets too bad (latest GFS and NAM runs show 0.2" - 0.4" ice here). I haven't had an ice storm much over 0.10" in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 With that in mind i'll take the plain rain. Took them 3 months to finally get my cable/internet fixed after that ice storm last Feb.. Too many old power poles around this house too. Chances for snow here IMBY are slim at best any time a storm ejects out of CO at or north of i70 and or end up north of IA/MO line unless they occlude fast and manage to sneak in to the south of here. The one constant with modeling has been this despite the colder look at the surface so yeah hope on any snow here is slim at best. If this was a bowling ball type system rolling along i70 that would be different but nothing has suggested that. So yeah i'll take the rain if possible..lol Western Michigan really does suck in terms of getting synoptic snowstorms, doesn't it? It seems like everything has to be "just right" to get a low pressure that actually gives us anything substantial. Clippers seem to be the only reliable systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 6z gfs shows maybe an inch or 3 of snow and then turning into rain.... 12z NAM decent front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Bingo. April '03 was an epic ice event here. Like you say it came after several 60-70 degree days in the end of March/beginning of April. Epic storm. Epic gradient. I was getting glazed over while OH was in the low 80s. At least from what I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like a pretty easy call for wintry pcpn type here on Wed. NAM looks like it drives the sfc low the furthest north (compared to other models) and even that's not enough to dislodge the shallow arctic air this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hopefully this produces something for us unlike Fridays storm. This storm really reminds me of march 1 2007 when we got 4-6" of snow then FZ then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hopefully this produces something for us unlike Fridays storm. This storm really reminds me of march 1 2007 when we got 4-6" of snow then FZ then rain The one thing that might be similar to Friday's storm is that we might find ourselves in a QPF minima again, with the best defo zone snow to our NW and the best WCB snow/ice/rain to our SE. But whatever we do get, I'm almost certain it's mostly going to be frozen/freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Well can't look at those details yet as this system has a chance to go a little more south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Interesting note from DTX, thinks that the convection that will be going to the south is being undermodeled on the GFS, and that it'll be sucking up a lot of the moisture A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES REGION TUES NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW WITHIN A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND GOOD LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENSIS WILL CERTAINLY PROVIDE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO SRN MI. A COLD DRY EASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE DUE TO A DEPARTING SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING WED NIGHT. THE ONSET OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW DUE TO WET BULB COOLING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER HOWEVER SHOULD TRANSITION PRECIP OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WED MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE RATHER BULLISH. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SRN OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE AS TO HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE PRECIP IS GENERATED TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN THAT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD MORE QUICKLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THESE FACTORS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE LIGHTER QPF OFFERED BY THE ECMWF AND SUGGESTS IT IS TOO EARLY TO SOUND ANY ALARMS ABOUT A POTENTIAL SNOW OR ICE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That storm was nuts! 3-4 days of ice then followed by a 6" snow storm. Epic! Northern oakland was powerless for almost a week I can still easily point out tree damage from that storm. Oh yeah definitely an Epic event IMBY. There were some places out of power up to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Epic storm. Epic gradient. I was getting glazed over while OH was in the low 80s. At least from what I recall. Yeah that gradient was just incredible. If I recall correctly on April 2nd the front moved through midday. Later that afternoon the temp sank to the low-40s IMBY while it was low/mid 70s in DTW/Monroe MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Interesting note from DTX, thinks that the convection that will be going to the south is being undermodeled on the GFS, and that it'll be sucking up a lot of the moisture .... Convection to the south is one aspect that really messes with storm in this area. It does tend to become more of a problem as spring goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 I started a severe thread for anyone who is interested. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32957-february-28-29-severe-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Now Friday the GFS wants to plop down what looks like a hefty chunk of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z nam (fwiw) trended weaker, more south and colder again, The trend is my friend right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It is really wierd to see the NAM on the southern end and the cooler end of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It is really wierd to see the NAM on the southern end and the cooler end of the guidance. Yep. In fact, the latest NAM may just in fact be mostly snow here. Of course, the NAM may just be its crazy self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It is really wierd to see the NAM on the southern end and the cooler end of the guidance. Its going to be interesting to see if the models shift anymore South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Its going to be interesting to see if the models shift anymore South. The 12z Euro still looks interesting for us as well; a few inches at least north of the border (IL/WI border). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yeah that gradient was just incredible. If I recall correctly on April 2nd the front moved through midday. Later that afternoon the temp sank to the low-40s IMBY while it was low/mid 70s in DTW/Monroe MI. Yup...it was a gradient of low 70s at the OH border to mid 30s in the Saginaw Valley. As for this storm...looking like some winter precip, but how far north will the warm front move? GFS would still have us soar to at least the mid 50s while Euro tops us out in mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 La crosse going with WSW for at least a portion of their counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yep. In fact, the latest NAM may just in fact be mostly snow here. Of course, the NAM may just be its crazy self. I don't know why everyone seems so excited about the 18z NAM; it didn't really shift south, although it gives portions of C and N Wisconsin 1 to 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yup...it was a gradient of low 70s at the OH border to mid 30s in the Saginaw Valley. As for this storm...looking like some winter precip, but how far north will the warm front move? GFS would still have us soar to at least the mid 50s while Euro tops us out in mid 30s. NAM is pretty extreme with the gradient... at one point FDY is at 50 and Detroit is below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Well the NAM hits southeast minnesota with 12 inches plus. Even being the NAM I am sure you would be excited if it was your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 NAM is pretty extreme with the gradient... at one point FDY is at 50 and Detroit is below 32. 4pm 2m temp is 34F at DTW and 60F at FDY lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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