snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Where do I go to get the 2m GFS forecasts? I went to Allan Huffman's page, scrolled down and couldn't find the option. 2m Temps/Winds/PMSL. It's a few rows above severe weather plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 They're being idiots once again. One run of the GGEM blast us into the warm sector and they blindly pander to it. Then when the following (and most recent) run of the GGEM comes in much, much colder, they leave that ridiculous temp forecast alone. Seriously, the funding cutbacks at EC have affected the quality of product. It seems more likely that a chimp is putting out these forecasts. Just like the snowfall warning haha Models seem to have persistent low level cold hanging around once this storm starts and if 850's and sfc temps can remain below freezing or at that freezing mark we maybe either looking at a snow changing to a decent icing event or a icing event in general transitioning to perhaps light snowfall. This storm has many characteristics IMO to that early March 07 storm or even that Mar. 85 storm you guys mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like the 00z GFS is coming in even more south than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like the 00z GFS is coming in even more south than the 18z 850's start off below freezing and sfc temps but then 850's warm to just above the freezing mark to perhaps 1-2C but sfc temps remain around that freezing mark for the storms duration. interestging. Ice event perhaps, mixing with snow grains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 850's start off below freezing and sfc temps but then 850's warm to just above the freezing mark to perhaps 1-2C but sfc temps remain around that freezing mark for the storms duration. interestging. Ice event perhaps, mixing with ice pellets? That spells icestorm. Seriously if the EURO is still soth of the GFS tonight than the concern is there for more snow/ice than rain IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That spells icestorm. Seriously if the EURO is still soth of the GFS tonight than the concern is there for more snow/ice than rain IMO Still a few days out. I'd rather wait till we see consistency. Once again temps and track are the concern, lol. Quite the gradient how ever between the sfc and the upper air temps. Some one will get Ice out of this. For such storms, I've learned not to hype over any run and wait till the precip starts falling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hmmm. GFS hinting at a quick 1/4" or so ice event here. Considering temp then quick rise above freezing I wouldn't mind that result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Call me crazy but I'd love a nice icing event. I know it can be dangerous, but it really is beautiful when all the trees are glazed over, plus the childish part of me loves sliding around outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It looks like the models continue to slowly trend colder/further south. I don't think there will be much ice with this, the ground is too warm. For an ideal ice storm setup, one would want overrunning precipitation right after a SIBERIAN cold outbreak (so the surface can effectively freeze). Furthermore, one would need a much stronger HP system (1040mb) in NE Ontario to keep the cold air damned. Otherwise, You'll get just a very cold rain, especially if the water droplets aren't supercooled. That said, the setup is favorable for some front-end thumping snow, something most of us haven't seen in a while. The high pressure center and its placement is good enough to stream drier air back into the region, which will aid in the wet bulbing processes when the precipitation arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Call me crazy but I'd love a nice icing event. I know it can be dangerous, but it really is beautiful when all the trees are glazed over, plus the childish part of me loves sliding around outside. Same here I love a good glazing of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It looks like the models continue to slowly trend colder/further south. I don't think there will be much ice with this, the ground is too warm. For an ideal ice storm setup, one would want overrunning precipitation right after a SIBERIAN cold outbreak (so the surface can effectively freeze). Furthermore, one would need a much stronger HP system (1040mb) in NE Ontario to keep the cold air damned. Otherwise, You'll get just a very cold rain, especially if the water droplets aren't supercooled. That said, the setup is favorable for some front-end thumping snow, something most of us haven't seen in a while. The high pressure center and its placement is good enough to stream drier air back into the region, which will aid in the wet bulbing processes when the precipitation arrives. My ground is covered with 3-4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 My ground is covered with 3-4" of snow. Some pretty warm snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 It looks like the models continue to slowly trend colder/further south. I don't think there will be much ice with this, the ground is too warm. For an ideal ice storm setup, one would want overrunning precipitation right after a SIBERIAN cold outbreak (so the surface can effectively freeze). Furthermore, one would need a much stronger HP system (1040mb) in NE Ontario to keep the cold air damned. Otherwise, You'll get just a very cold rain, especially if the water droplets aren't supercooled. That said, the setup is favorable for some front-end thumping snow, something most of us haven't seen in a while. The high pressure center and its placement is good enough to stream drier air back into the region, which will aid in the wet bulbing processes when the precipitation arrives. What about the trees/power lines...are they too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Not surprising that the GFS trended South some. I think something in between GFS now and the Euro solutions will end up correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Not surprising that the GFS trended South some. I think something in between GFS now and the Euro solutions will end up correct. Yikes...I'd much rather have the snow than ice. I know the roads may not get icy, but the 40 junipers, 25 holly bushes, and 12 rhodies I planted last warm season barely made it through the heavy wet snowfall we had in January. I don't want ice all over them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yikes...I'd much rather have the snow than ice. I know the roads may not get icy, but the 40 junipers, 25 holly bushes, and 12 rhodies I planted last warm season barely made it through the heavy wet snowfall we had in January. I don't want ice all over them! I wouldn't say the roads wouldn't get icy either, it doesn't take too much freezing rain to make the roads a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Yeah, but it ended up in Minnesota. It is the same as the last system. The models were to far north or east. It is really simple. This will blow up into the plains and occlude. Pretty much textbook 101 plains storm. The ECMWF's problem was like last time, it was to far east on the low. That is why it showed what it showed. The ensembles did not fall for that line. While the precip will turn over, alot of these start out as ice storms quite a bit. The low occluding in the plains would actually help the ice/snow potential as the warm air wouldn't be driven too far North the further East you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I wouldn't say the roads wouldn't get icy either, it doesn't take too much freezing rain to make the roads a nightmare. With how mild this winter has been and seeing how quickly the snow melted off the blacktops on Friday...and temps well in the 30s Monday and Tuesday....I just can't picture that much ice on the surface. In the three years I've lived here, I don't think I've really seen sleet OR freezing rain at all. Maybe some ice on the trees, but that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 What about the trees/power lines...are they too warm? ^This. and bridges, elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Doesn't really matter. Most of the precip will be gone by then with little cold air. Timing is everything. See February 20th, 2011 as the perfect example of a storm that worked out just right (which this one doesn't have a whole out of differences from it either). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Hopefully its a warmer rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Doesn't really matter. Most of the precip will be gone by then with little cold air. I would disagree, as would the GFS/GGEM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GRR has a very good long term that gels with my idea. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012 A HIGH IMPACT SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE POSITION OF VERTICALLY STACKED POTENT SYSTEM NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER AT 12Z WED. A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE IMPACTING MI AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC OCCLUSION IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD 12Z WED... WITH A PRONOUNCED TROWAL FEATURE JUST NORTH OF IT. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PWATS NEAR AN INCH ARE PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE TROWAL... AND WILL CARRY SCT THUNDER ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96. EURO SFC TEMP PROGS KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE CWFA. THE GFS IS A TAD WARMER AND HAS ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS SNEAKING INTO THE SW CWFA. FREEZING RAIN WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY/PREDOMINATE PCPN TYPE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES... WITH SNOW/SLEET A SLIGHTLY BETTER PROBABILITY IN THE FAR NRN CWFA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH QPF WE END UP SEEING OUT OF THIS. BEST BET AT THIS POINT IS AT LEAST 0.25 TO 0.50... BUT SINCE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRESENT THERE MAY BE MORE. SHOULD HEAVY ICING OCCUR... SFC TEMP RECOVERY IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN CWFA MAY BE HINDERED SINCE THE SFC SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND THE LOW MOVES ALONG I-96. THAT WOULD MEAN THAT HEAVY ICE ON LIMBS/TREES WILL NOT MELT MUCH ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BE VERY PROBLEMATIC IF POWER OUTAGES OCCUR. WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. The part that could be concerning with respect to Wednesday is if the wind potential is realized and the temps remain cool keeping the ice in tact. That could really be a bad scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 GRR has a very good long term that gels with my idea. The part that could be concerning with respect to Wednesday is if the wind potential is realized and the temps remain cool keeping the ice in tact. That could really be a bad scenario. With that in mind i'll take the plain rain. Took them 3 months to finally get my cable/internet fixed after that ice storm last Feb.. Too many old power poles around this house too. Chances for snow here IMBY are slim at best any time a storm ejects out of CO at or north of i70 and or end up north of IA/MO line unless they occlude fast and manage to sneak in to the south of here. The one constant with modeling has been this despite the colder look at the surface so yeah hope on any snow here is slim at best. If this was a bowling ball type system rolling along i70 that would be different but nothing has suggested that. So yeah i'll take the rain if possible..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 HPC's morning discussion highlights the ice potential for both S MI and S WI DAY 3... ...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... THE SLOW MOVING DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY WED MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT DEEP MSTR FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WARM SECTOR MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES 5 STD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. IN THE COLD SECTOR...AMPLE 850-700 MB MSTR/THETA-E INFLUX IS NOTED WITH BOTH THE GEFS/SREF. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 850-700 MB MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES CLIMB TO AROUND 2-2.5 STD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING AN 850 MB JET INCREASING TO 50 KT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TO ADJACENT NORTHEAST SD...STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THIS TO BE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR THE REGION...AS EACH OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS/CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 1.5-2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WHERE IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICING WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH...FROM NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI/MI INTO SOUTHERN MN AND EASTERN SD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE IS FCST TO INDUCE AN INVERSION 900-750 MB...WHICH THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GOING ABV FREEZING...MELTING FALLING SNOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN UNTIL THE SFC LAYER WARMS ABV FREEZING. OUTPUT FROM THE NAM/21Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS ALL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OF ICING...WITH A MODERATE RISK SHOWN WHERE THE OVERLAP AMONG THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EXIST. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CLUSTER BETTER THAN NORMAL WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK...AS THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTH TOWARDS THE GFS. WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN SHOWING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF/GFS...IT WAS INCLUDED IN THE CONSENSUS CLUSTER AND DEPICTION OF PROBABILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 With how mild this winter has been and seeing how quickly the snow melted off the blacktops on Friday...and temps well in the 30s Monday and Tuesday....I just can't picture that much ice on the surface. In the three years I've lived here, I don't think I've really seen sleet OR freezing rain at all. Maybe some ice on the trees, but that was it. There was an icestorm in April '03 after temps were near 70F and it still iced up the roads. I doubt temps in the 30s will hinder the roads from becoming icy if the temp is cold enough during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 6z gfs shows maybe an inch or 3 of snow and then turning into rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 6z gfs shows maybe an inch or 3 of snow and then turning into rain.... Yes the GFS and the Canadian would be mostly washouts around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 6z NAM shows more or less nothing.... Don't know...Euro looks awfully weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 6z NAM shows more or less nothing.... Don't know...Euro looks awfully weak. My guess is the storms trends less and less juicy overall... Are chances this winter are getting less and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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