Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Whats Euro showing for LSE? 12z GFS looks like a little snow and then mostly rain.... Doesn't look too impressive... LSE: WED 00Z 29-FEB 0.5 -0.7 1016 72 86 0.02 554 541 WED 06Z 29-FEB -0.8 -0.4 1008 82 100 0.16 549 543 WED 12Z 29-FEB -1.3 -3.2 1001 87 83 0.41 538 537 WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.3 -5.8 1000 86 99 0.17 535 534 THU 00Z 01-MAR -1.8 -7.9 1004 88 98 0.24 535 532 THU 06Z 01-MAR -4.0 -8.6 1009 85 80 0.04 539 532 THU 12Z 01-MAR -8.0 -8.3 1012 89 70 0.01 542 533 THU 18Z 01-MAR -0.6 -6.0 1012 64 64 0.00 544 534 FRI 00Z 02-MAR -1.2 -5.8 1011 84 65 0.00 542 533 FRI 06Z 02-MAR -2.3 -5.2 1009 87 77 0.02 535 527 FRI 12Z 02-MAR -5.8 -6.1 1007 87 31 0.01 528 523 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 This is going to be a storm where anything is possible up to the time it starts snowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 :wub: MKE, here's your chance to build an insurmountable lead over LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Thanks... So at this point...anywhere from nothing to a foot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 DLL I have a hunch that you are gonna get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 No two storms are alike, but the first storm that came to my mind was the March 4-5th, 1985 winter storm that gave Toronto 10-12" of snow followed by freezing rain and rain. I looked at this storm on NARR a few years ago and here's the link: http://www.meteo.psu...304.php#picture Very similar features. Low plowing into Iowa/southern Minnesota with strong confluence across Ontario/Quebec. Today's 12z GGEM looks very much the same as the 1985 event. Strong band of WAA heavy snow out ahead of the low across southcentral Ontario early Wednesday morning followed by sleet/freezing rain and then rain. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 No two storms are alike, but the first storm that came to my mind was the March 4-5th, 1985 winter storm that gave Toronto 10-12" of snow followed by freezing rain and rain. I looked at this storm on NARR a few years ago and here's the link: http://www.meteo.psu...304.php#picture Very similar features. Low plowing into Iowa/southern Minnesota with strong confluence across Ontario/Quebec. Today's 12z GGEM looks very much the same as the 1985 event. Strong band of WAA heavy snow out ahead of the low across southcentral Ontario early Wednesday morning followed by sleet/freezing rain and then rain. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. That storm is 5th on the CIPS analog list using the 12z GFS at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 There is going to be a pretty good zone of Freezing Rain me thinks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 No two storms are alike, but the first storm that came to my mind was the March 4-5th, 1985 winter storm that gave Toronto 10-12" of snow followed by freezing rain and rain. I looked at this storm on NARR a few years ago and here's the link: http://www.meteo.psu...304.php#picture Very similar features. Low plowing into Iowa/southern Minnesota with strong confluence across Ontario/Quebec. Today's 12z GGEM looks very much the same as the 1985 event. Strong band of WAA heavy snow out ahead of the low across southcentral Ontario early Wednesday morning followed by sleet/freezing rain and then rain. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. ya that is interesting. 12zEURO actually gave us 0.67'' QPF and most is prob snow. Godd to have the EURO on the southern end of the guidance but this has potential to be a ice storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 You get absolutely drilled! I'm thinking there is going to be a pretty legit ice threat with this one too with that High off to the NE.. 12z EURO It's even giving areas along the border here snow. The 0z did not to this extent. Most of southern WI looks to have mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Don't know..18z doesn't have as much precip and most of it would be liquid... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 The EURO has us squarely in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Don't know..18z doesn't have as much precip and most of it would be liquid... Looks like the 2m freezing line stays right around your location during the whole event. It could end up being a 33° snow or a 33° rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Looks like the 2m freezing line stays right around your location during the whole event. It could end up being a 33° snow or a 33° rain though. Or Freezing Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 No two storms are alike, but the first storm that came to my mind was the March 4-5th, 1985 winter storm that gave Toronto 10-12" of snow followed by freezing rain and rain. I looked at this storm on NARR a few years ago and here's the link: http://www.meteo.psu...304.php#picture Very similar features. Low plowing into Iowa/southern Minnesota with strong confluence across Ontario/Quebec. Today's 12z GGEM looks very much the same as the 1985 event. Strong band of WAA heavy snow out ahead of the low across southcentral Ontario early Wednesday morning followed by sleet/freezing rain and then rain. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Interesting analog. The most recent storm that popped into my mind when I saw this setup was the March 1, 2007 snow/icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 I love freezing rain...can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Don't give up DDL. Don't let the NAM at 48 plus hours discourage you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=ARX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 No two storms are alike, but the first storm that came to my mind was the March 4-5th, 1985 winter storm that gave Toronto 10-12" of snow followed by freezing rain and rain. I looked at this storm on NARR a few years ago and here's the link: http://www.meteo.psu...304.php#picture Very similar features. Low plowing into Iowa/southern Minnesota with strong confluence across Ontario/Quebec. Today's 12z GGEM looks very much the same as the 1985 event. Strong band of WAA heavy snow out ahead of the low across southcentral Ontario early Wednesday morning followed by sleet/freezing rain and then rain. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. This upcoming storm looks a lot warmer than that event though, at least according to the GFS. It looks like plain rain for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Keep in mind folks that this is coming at us from the Southern Rockies/sw NOT N.Rockies/nw like the last system. Models have tended to over do these kinds of systems all winter while being to weak with the northern ones much like we saw with the prior event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 This upcoming storm looks a lot warmer than that event though, at least according to the GFS. It looks like plain rain for Toronto. Incorrect. 18z GFS has sfc temps below freezing while the pcpn is falling from 84-96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Incorrect. 18z GFS has sfc temps below freezing while the pcpn is falling from 84-96 hours. Okay, thanks i guess I've got a lot to learn about how to read an 850mb weather map! I always thought the thick blue "zero line at 850" line was the freezing mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Okay, thanks i guess I've got a lot to learn about how to read an 850mb weather map! I always thought the thick blue "zero line at 850" line was the freezing mark. It is. But that's 850 mb. Here's the sfc: And frankly, even looking at 850, the 0c line just makes it north of us by 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Okay, thanks i guess I've got a lot to learn about how to read an 850mb weather map! I always thought the thick blue "zero line at 850" line was the freezing mark. That is for temps above the surface at 850mb. Best to check out 2mTemps ( Surface ) too for low level cold or warmth. *Edit* See image above posted by SSC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It is. But that's 850 mb. Here's the sfc: And frankly, even looking at 850, the 0c line just makes it north of us by 96 hours. I have a feeling that this may be a icing event. Nice to see the GFS come south today to look like the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 It is. But that's 850 mb. Here's the sfc: And frankly, even looking at 850, the 0c line just makes it north of us by 96 hours. Thanks! We'll see what happens. It does look like EC's forecast of 52F for Wednesday will bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 That is for temps above the surface at 850mb. Best to check out 2mTemps ( Surface ) too for low level cold or warmth. *Edit* See image above posted by SSC. I was just looking at the 2m temperatures for this time period. The freezing line goes from Green Bay to the southern tip of Lake Huron, then snakes it's way through Niagara Falls. There is freezing rain on the wunderground precipitation plots in southern Ontario and central MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Thanks! We'll see what happens. It does look like EC's forecast of 52F for Wednesday will bust. They're being idiots once again. One run of the GGEM blast us into the warm sector and they blindly pander to it. Then when the following (and most recent) run of the GGEM comes in much, much colder, they leave that ridiculous temp forecast alone. Seriously, the funding cutbacks at EC have affected the quality of product. It seems more likely that a chimp is putting out these forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 They're being idiots once again. One run of the GGEM blast us into the warm sector and they blindly pander to it. Then when the following (and most recent) run of the GGEM comes in much, much colder, they leave that ridiculous temp forecast alone. Seriously, the funding cutbacks at EC have affected the quality of product. It seems more likely that a chimp is putting out these forecasts. Where do I go to get the 2m GFS forecasts? I went to Allan Huffman's page, scrolled down and couldn't find the option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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