daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Saints- At this point that would be almost all rain for LSE...Need it to track through CHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 00z CMC on board as well from the look of it, impressive divergence aloft showing up with a strong negatively tilted profile at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nice: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 gross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I am hoping this becomes our first t-storm producer in SE MI. I don't expecting any severe here with it but maybe some warm front t-storms. I would take the Feb 24 6Z GFS 120-126 hour output! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Moisture return could be a little better. But it's a step in the right direction. Someone is gonna get blasted with some mighty storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think Stebo brought it up earlier but I wonder if they'll be enough low level cold for some ice in Michigan. East surface winds coming off a high in Quebec can make it tough to warm the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 If the current models are close to correct we can say goodbye to the rest of our snow and the rest of the frost in the ground. La Crosse still is not mentioning any rain for me. Not sure what models they are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Say bye bye 12z GFS has it going through DULUTH or there abouts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 DTX A TIGHT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION TUES NIGHT/WED MAY INTERACT WITH THIS STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREATE A WIDE ARRAY OF PRECIP TYPES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING SFC LOW ORIGINATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE TUES NIGHT/WED TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE NOW INDICATE BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WED. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SEND A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR INTO SE MI...WHICH CERTAINLY WARRANTS SOME MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE DYNAMIC. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK STRONG WINDS /POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS/ MAY BE OF CONCERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 I am hoping this becomes our first t-storm producer in SE MI. I don't expecting any severe here with it but maybe some warm front t-storms. I would take the Feb 24 6Z GFS 120-126 hour output! If the occlusion is a bit delayed, we would see a substantial severe threat into the southern and eastern Lakes. The problem with that right now is that the warm sector gets shunted south so unless that changes, the best severe threat should be south of the MI line and possibly south of the OH River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 If the occlusion is a bit delayed, we would see a substantial severe threat into the southern and eastern Lakes. The problem with that right now is that the warm sector gets shunted south so unless that changes, the best severe threat should be south of the MI line and possibly south of the OH River. Exactly. That is why I was saying I didn't expect anything severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 At least we have some consistency in the GFS so that a possibly signficant storm will be traversing the Midwest and Heartland in the indicated time frame. Moisture return is always the questionable issue with late winter/early spring outbreaks. I think dews in the 50 to 60 range are quite possible throughout much of IN per current model progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Jeeze I guess winter is done. Looking at a storm like this it seems we may be sinking into a spring pattern already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Say bye bye 12z GFS has it going through DULUTH or there abouts... Doesn't the Euro look okay for you? It looked like snow north and west of Milwaukee; Milwaukee was the dividing line b/w no snow and some snow for this system. The Euro shows two storms affecting the northern half of Wisconsin in the three day period from Feb. 28 to March 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Should be lots of wind advisories and maybe even high wind warnings across the Midwest & Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Euro: Euro still looks south of GFS...have no idea what the precip amts are off the euro...18z is just coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Euro gets my back yard up to 19C, nothing like a leap day getting to 70F, not many times you can say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 18z moves it north of the area and weakens it... Still looks like nothing of interest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 DDL it is gonna be painful to watch this cut to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 NWS here mentions the EURO and that we should keep an eye on it, but the GFS and GEM both have the heaviest snows staying far west and north. Active pattern, but pretty quiet IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Should be lots of wind advisories and maybe even high wind warnings across the Midwest & Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Yeah, post-frontal mixing looks pretty deep. I would think wind advisories at minimum if this solution holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Need to watch the system after this one for svr as well, 12z Euro/CMC look good with regards to the trough's profile and the GFS has impressive thermodynamics, despite its current lower amplitude solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like SPC is highlighting a risk area for Tuesday into Wednesday they also mention further North WRN CONUS TROUGHING DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK WILL LEAD TO STG/DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TRACKING FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY DAY-4/28TH-29TH. MOST CONFIDENT SVR POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THREAT FOR TORNADOES...IS OVERNIGHT OVER PORTIONS OZARKS/MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX REGIONS. STG MID-UPPER WINDS -- I.E. 50-70 KT AT 500 MB -- AND HODOGRAPH-ENLARGING LLJ SHOULD OVERSPREAD SFC DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 60S F. FARTHER N...PRIND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MEAGER INTO AREA NEAR SFC LOW...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER LIFT AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MRGL SVR THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED/SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT CAN FORM. POTENTIAL OVER CORN BELT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL ATTM TO EXTEND CATEGORICAL AREA THERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Give this thread a try folks. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32938-extended-range-severe-weather-discussion/page__pid__1405361#entry1405361 Trying to get more mets into the disco...as well as clear up confusion as to what threat belongs in which subregion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looking at the discussion out of MSP>..they mention the low is in the Aleutians and a lot of change could still occur in the models... I guess its still something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Both the GFS and especially the EURO have shifted quite a bit south with this storm. Looks like they're keying in on an additional s/w crossing Hudson Bay which strengthens the confluence across the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Maybe we can get this storm after all but I wouldn't bet on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Maybe we can get this storm after all but I wouldn't bet on it If the models don't go back to trying to ram this thing to Duluth, I think we should have plenty of low level cold air to work with. It's 3000ft+ off the surface that's concerning. Right now, even with the trends, it looks like more of an ice storm potential rather than snow storm. But I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 If the models don't go back to trying to ram this thing to Duluth, I think we should have plenty of low level cold air to work with. It's 3000ft+ off the surface that's concerning. Right now, even with the trends, it looks like more of an ice storm potential rather than snow storm. But I'd take it. Looks like another snow event for ottawa. They're really going to start building their snowpack! Steady flurries currently falling here in NE Toronto. Must be lake effect. Toronto must be one of the rare places where your location in the city makesa big difference in the winter. I saw a lot more winter precip yesterday north of the 401 than downtown did for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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