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February 28-29 Winter Storm

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

There's sporadic lightning activity across IA and WI: http://www.strikesta...ndex.aspx?id=30

Nice slug of precip pushing across the WI border now, it's going to be a rainy night. People with roof leaks are gonna have a sh*t time.

With the wind blowing up the singles, water can get in to the attic that way. Happened here a couple times, before the roof was redone.

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toronto blizzard

toronto blizzard

Posted
Posted

lol. I don't watch City too often but I tuned in today. They have two wx presenters in the same broadcast? That's a first for me.

It's such a delicate forecast tomorrow. Things that could go wrong:

-models too cold aloft...thus quicker change to pl/zr.

-convection across the OV robs moisture transport, resulting in light qpf (rgem sort of indicates this)

-dry air eats away at a good 1-2 hours worth of pcpn, resulting in lower amounts.

If all three of those show up...2cm is probably a good bet. 2/3...5cm....1/3...7-10cm....0/3 maybe that RUC depiction looks good and 10-15cm falls. Very, very precarious situation tomorrow. I'm just spliiting the difference, going for 1.5/3 or about 5-7cm.

Ok I get you. I guess it all has to go in our favour which hasn't happened at all this winter

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

Check out the 0z NAM for tomorrow night. Has shifted the track of upper/sfc low just enough south to keep us in a cold ENE rather than SW flow. Not ready to buy into that but verbatim it could be an ice storm.

North Toronto/GTA gets a good 3-5" thru 36 hours :D

Not bad at all

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=02%2F29%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Check out the 0z NAM for tomorrow night. Has shifted the track of upper/sfc low just enough south to keep us in a cold ENE rather than SW flow. Not ready to buy into that but verbatim it could be an ice storm.

What concerns me is that the temperature is quite mild: -0.7C at my place with a SSE wind as opposed to an east or NE wind. In other words, the temperature is very borderline, and it would take much to push them above freezing.

When is the precip supposed to start in the GTA?

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

What does 5 snowflakes graphic mean? lol. Id say this winter there were only 2 snows that NEEDED plowing, but of course local contractors did parking lots much more than that. But Id say the salters were needed the most for all those nuisance snows.

5 flakes on the weather icon for the forecast= SNOW.... 3 flakes = light snow flurries

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

seriously, what did you do to get banned from the accuweather forums? lol Who banned you?

tell that do the nut heads who reported my post(s)

remembr that feb 26-28th thread...apparently they thought i was starting a "flame war" and because i said "Im so wasted" they thought it was drugs/alochol, lol.

im staying here now....its IP ban, not just account ban lol.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

What concerns me is that the temperature is quite mild: -0.7C at my place with a SSE wind as opposed to an east or NE wind. In other words, the temperature is very borderline, and it would take much to push them above freezing.

When is the precip supposed to start in the GTA?

We shoud cool thru the night to around -1 to -3C.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

tell that do the nut heads who reported my post(s)

remembr that feb 26-28th thread...apparently they thought i was starting a "flame war" and because i said "Im so wasted" they thought it was drugs/alochol, lol.

im staying here now....its IP ban, not just account ban lol.

is torontoweather on this forum?

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turtlehurricane

turtlehurricane

Posted
Posted

Downpour after downpour and hanging at 34 °F. This was so close to being a winter event when you think about it.

We should push above 40 °F tomorrow morning for a time as WAA peaks, but then the cold front will hit. Might get some snow bands in the late afternoon as the center of the low approaches.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

0z ECMWF:

LSE:

 
WED 06Z 29-FEB   0.6	 2.1    1007	  91	  84    0.21	 552	 546   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   1.7	 2.8	 995	  96	  46    0.43	 538	 542   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   2.2    -6.2	 995	  76	 100    0.04	 530	 534   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   0.8    -5.7	 997	  91	  84    0.07	 533	 536   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   0.5    -6.1    1004	  93	  39    0.01	 541	 538

MSN:

WED 06Z 29-FEB   2.0	 3.7    1010	  89	  97    0.19	 556	 548   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   3.8	 5.6	 998	  97	  50    0.31	 544	 546   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   8.6    -2.2	 996	  50	  42    0.02	 535	 539   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   1.4    -5.3	 998	  85	  96    0.05	 532	 534   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   0.9    -6.3    1002	  93	  53    0.03	 540	 538   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   0.5    -7.1    1007	  93	  42    0.01	 543	 537

MKE:

WED 06Z 29-FEB   2.4	 3.5    1012	  87	  96    0.13	 558	 548   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   2.7	 6.2    1001	  95	  45    0.39	 550	 549   
WED 18Z 29-FEB  12.0	 1.1	 997	  56	  13    0.05	 540	 543   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   4.6    -5.2	 999	  66	  95    0.01	 533	 534   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   2.1    -5.8    1001	  90	  74    0.03	 537	 536   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.4    -6.7    1006	  88	  27    0.00	 542	 537   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   3.7    -6.3    1010	  68	  49    0.01	 547	 538

SBM:

 
WED 06Z 29-FEB   1.3	 1.4    1014	  84	 100    0.07	 556	 545   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.8	 1.6    1003	  96	  96    0.32	 549	 546   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   6.7	 1.1	 996	  83	  23    0.13	 538	 541   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   2.7    -5.3	 998	  85	  97    0.03	 531	 533   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.0    -6.1    1000	  93	  79    0.04	 535	 534

MKG:

 
WED 06Z 29-FEB   2.1	 2.9    1016	  76	 100    0.03	 558	 545   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   1.0	 4.0    1006	  91	  93    0.36	 553	 548   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   5.2	 4.1    1000	  93	   6    0.12	 543	 543   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   6.0    -0.2	 998	  68	  92    0.01	 534	 536   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.4    -5.2    1000	  92	  96    0.05	 534	 534   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.2    -6.9    1005	  93	  57    0.02	 540	 536   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   2.5    -5.9    1010	  79	  19    0.01	 545	 537

GRR:

 
WED 06Z 29-FEB   1.2	 3.3    1017	  80	  99    0.04	 559	 545   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.7	 2.9    1008	  92	  90    0.35	 555	 548   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   5.9	 5.2    1002	  88	  12    0.14	 546	 544   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   8.3	 3.4	 998	  56	  66    0.01	 536	 538   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.4    -5.6    1001	  86	  97    0.04	 535	 534   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   0.8    -7.0    1005	  96	  68    0.03	 540	 536   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   3.8    -6.6    1009	  68	  14    0.02	 545	 538

BTL:

 
WED 06Z 29-FEB   1.7	 4.0    1017	  73	  93    0.01	 560	 547   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   1.7	 5.9    1008	  93	  86    0.32	 556	 550   
WED 18Z 29-FEB  10.0	 6.4    1002	  87	  16    0.13	 548	 547   
THU 00Z 01-MAR  11.3	 5.0	 998	  42	  51    0.00	 539	 541   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   2.5    -5.9    1002	  71	  97    0.03	 537	 535   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.2    -6.7    1006	  88	  46    0.02	 542	 538   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   4.8    -6.0    1009	  60	  21    0.04	 547	 539

ADG:

 
WED 06Z 29-FEB   1.0	 3.7    1019	  66	  93    0.01	 562	 547   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   1.6	 5.5    1010	  92	  88    0.26	 559	 551   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   7.4	 7.2    1004	  92	  15    0.16	 553	 550   
THU 00Z 01-MAR  13.3	 6.5	 999	  42	  58    0.00	 543	 544   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   4.8    -3.6    1002	  69	  94    0.01	 539	 538   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   2.1    -6.2    1005	  70	  48    0.00	 543	 538   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   5.7    -5.7    1009	  55	  17    0.02	 547	 540   
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   3.6    -5.0    1012	  67	  28    0.01	 550	 540

DTW:

 
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.5	 3.4    1012	  87	 100    0.19	 558	 549   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   3.5	 6.5    1006	  94	  12    0.16	 554	 549   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   4.7	 6.9    1000	  96	  65    0.00	 544	 543   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   4.7    -2.8    1001	  82	  96    0.02	 538	 537   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.8    -5.5    1004	  76	  59    0.00	 540	 537   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   5.5    -5.8    1008	  57	  15    0.02	 545	 538   
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   3.8    -5.8    1012	  68	  38    0.01	 548	 539

PHN:

 
WED 06Z 29-FEB   0.0	 1.0    1023	  61	  94    0.04	 559	 541   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.6	 0.2    1015	  72	 100    0.09	 557	 545   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   2.2	 4.1    1007	  90	  12    0.18	 553	 547   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   4.1	 7.3    1001	  95	  31    0.00	 544	 543   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   4.4    -1.3    1000	  90	  98    0.06	 537	 537   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.1    -5.6    1003	  87	  85    0.01	 537	 534   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   4.9    -5.8    1007	  64	  67    0.01	 542	 536

YKF:

 
WED 18Z 29-FEB  -0.8    -0.7    1011	  91	  91    0.21	 554	 545   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   0.0	 3.9    1006	  98	  16    0.05	 547	 542   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   0.1	 1.8    1003	  99	  94    0.04	 539	 537   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.0    -4.0    1002	  98	  97    0.16	 535	 533   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   2.9    -5.8    1006	  75	  85    0.01	 538	 534   
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   0.5    -4.4    1011	  87	  79    0.02	 543	 534

YYZ:

 
WED 18Z 29-FEB  -0.1    -1.8    1013	  89	  99    0.30	 554	 543   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   0.8	 1.2    1007	  96	  19    0.10	 547	 542   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.0	 2.4    1002	  95	  75    0.03	 540	 538   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   0.8    -2.7    1002	  98	  97    0.21	 535	 534   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   3.6    -5.4    1005	  71	  93    0.04	 538	 534   
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   2.0    -4.0    1010	  84	  86    0.01	 542	 534

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