snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I figured if the warning existed then the watch was exist as well! I forgive you Wish the NWS would bring back heavy snow warnings. To me, WSWs should be reserved for multiple warning criteria winter weather phenomenon that occur simultaneously (or consecutively). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Do you think southwestern Ontario gets a WSW for freezing rain issued tomorrow? I saw the special weather statement is already posted. On another note after looking at the map it looks like Waterloo is looking at just under a .25 inch, could be a nasty day here. I doubt it. EC has occasionally issued winter storm watches for pure, or near pure, icing events in the past. However, it's usually only when the amount of ice would be sufficient to bring down trees and utility poles in a widespread fashion. We're probably talking 10mm of ice or more. This event looks like it'll be less than that, so I'd guess they issue a freezing rain warning tomorrow afternoon with no preceding watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I forgive you Wish the NWS would bring back heavy snow warnings. To me, WSWs should be reserved for multiple warning criteria winter weather phenomenon that occur simultaneously (or consecutively). HSW I miss. I think that was 6" of snow in 12 hours or 8" of snow in 24 hours. Sometimes certain weather events need strong wording towards one precipitation type or the amount over x amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I forgive you Wish the NWS would bring back heavy snow warnings. To me, WSWs should be reserved for multiple warning criteria winter weather phenomenon that occur simultaneously (or consecutively). I agree. Winter storm warnings used to have a lot more of a sinister feel to them back in the day, as they were used a little more diligently compared to now. Back in the "old days" a winter storm warning meant you were not only going to get heavy snow, but strong winds, drifting, and sometimes cold. Kind of like a low-end blizzard warning if you will. I also miss the old "travelers advisories" and "snow advisories". Those have both been watered down into one conglomerate "winter weather advisory". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 0z ECMWF LSE: WED 00Z 29-FEB 1.2 3.3 1016 69 77 0.02 556 543 WED 06Z 29-FEB 1.2 2.9 1008 90 100 0.22 552 546 WED 12Z 29-FEB 3.2 3.6 996 96 73 0.35 539 542 WED 18Z 29-FEB 3.4 -6.1 997 63 59 0.03 533 535 THU 00Z 01-MAR -0.3 -7.8 999 76 98 0.06 531 532 THU 06Z 01-MAR -1.6 -5.9 1004 76 87 0.02 538 535 MSN: WED 00Z 29-FEB 2.8 2.7 1018 62 93 0.01 559 544 WED 06Z 29-FEB 2.3 3.5 1011 86 100 0.16 556 548 WED 12Z 29-FEB 3.6 5.7 1000 97 56 0.36 546 547 WED 18Z 29-FEB 6.5 -1.7 999 73 12 0.04 539 540 THU 00Z 01-MAR 3.4 -5.9 1001 54 98 0.00 534 533 THU 06Z 01-MAR -0.8 -6.6 1004 66 86 0.01 538 535 MKE: WED 06Z 29-FEB 3.1 3.0 1014 79 88 0.07 558 547 WED 12Z 29-FEB 2.5 5.0 1003 96 90 0.42 552 549 WED 18Z 29-FEB 11.3 4.4 998 81 8 0.06 543 545 SBM: WED 06Z 29-FEB 1.6 0.7 1016 80 92 0.04 556 543 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.6 1.8 1004 96 100 0.38 550 547 WED 18Z 29-FEB 5.5 2.6 998 94 17 0.16 541 543 THU 00Z 01-MAR 3.9 -5.2 999 63 98 0.01 533 534 THU 06Z 01-MAR 0.4 -7.1 1001 74 95 0.01 534 533 THU 12Z 01-MAR -0.1 -7.2 1005 80 41 0.01 539 535 MKG: WED 06Z 29-FEB 1.9 1.1 1018 71 97 0.02 558 544 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.9 3.5 1007 91 97 0.32 554 548 WED 18Z 29-FEB 4.6 5.0 1001 93 17 0.19 545 545 THU 00Z 01-MAR 4.5 -1.7 1001 75 63 0.01 537 536 GRR: WED 00Z 29-FEB 0.5 0.4 1024 74 72 0.02 560 541 WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.8 2.1 1019 73 96 0.00 559 544 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.6 3.3 1009 92 98 0.31 556 548 WED 18Z 29-FEB 4.5 5.6 1002 91 23 0.23 548 546 THU 00Z 01-MAR 5.0 0.2 1001 80 46 0.01 539 538 BTL: WED 06Z 29-FEB 1.9 2.8 1018 65 92 0.01 561 546 WED 12Z 29-FEB 1.4 5.6 1009 93 95 0.31 557 550 WED 18Z 29-FEB 8.8 6.7 1002 90 20 0.17 550 548 THU 00Z 01-MAR 8.9 2.6 1001 66 33 0.01 541 541 ADG: WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.3 3.0 1020 65 87 0.01 562 546 WED 12Z 29-FEB 1.0 5.2 1011 92 100 0.23 560 550 WED 18Z 29-FEB 5.9 7.2 1004 96 22 0.23 554 551 THU 00Z 01-MAR 10.9 6.5 1000 62 18 0.01 546 546 DTW: WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.1 3.0 1013 85 100 0.16 559 549 WED 18Z 29-FEB 2.5 7.2 1006 96 15 0.23 554 550 THU 00Z 01-MAR 7.0 7.1 1000 87 28 0.01 546 546 PHN: WED 00Z 29-FEB 1.2 -1.1 1027 66 77 0.03 560 538 WED 06Z 29-FEB -0.5 0.7 1023 57 99 0.00 559 541 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.5 0.1 1015 66 100 0.07 558 546 WED 18Z 29-FEB 2.1 4.3 1007 88 32 0.14 554 548 THU 00Z 01-MAR 4.5 6.6 1001 97 39 0.05 546 545 THU 06Z 01-MAR 3.7 -1.7 1003 84 85 0.11 539 537 YKF: WED 18Z 29-FEB -0.4 -1.3 1012 86 100 0.20 555 545 THU 00Z 01-MAR 0.2 4.2 1005 98 28 0.08 547 543 THU 06Z 01-MAR 0.4 1.0 1003 99 24 0.12 540 538 THU 12Z 01-MAR 1.8 -3.9 1004 89 97 0.02 537 535 THU 18Z 01-MAR 3.2 -6.5 1007 65 66 0.02 539 534 YYZ: WED 18Z 29-FEB 0.6 -2.2 1014 83 100 0.14 554 543 THU 00Z 01-MAR 0.9 2.2 1006 97 32 0.15 548 543 THU 06Z 01-MAR 1.1 2.0 1003 97 29 0.09 541 538 THU 12Z 01-MAR 1.8 -3.6 1004 94 96 0.03 537 534 THU 18Z 01-MAR 4.3 -6.1 1006 67 88 0.02 538 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I agree. Winter storm warnings used to have a lot more of a sinister feel to them back in the day, as they were used a little more diligently compared to now. Back in the "old days" a winter storm warning meant you were not only going to get heavy snow, but strong winds, drifting, and sometimes cold. Kind of like a low-end blizzard warning if you will. I also miss the old "travelers advisories" and "snow advisories". Those have both been watered down into one conglomerate "winter weather advisory". Yeah snow advisories have gone extinct too. I've heard of travel advisories being used over the mountains in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Wow, a complete 180 on BUF's thinking from yesterday afternoon: WARM NOSE ALOFT MAY BE AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER TO BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO CHANGE OVER ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST TO ALL RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just woke up.I haven't checked the models yet so what is you're latest thinking SSC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I just woke up.I haven't checked the models yet so what is you're latest thinking SSC? Looks like the 0z EURO and 6z GFS went a bit warmer...but honestly, it's noise level stuff. Overall, the models have remained fairly consistent for the last 36 hours or so. 2-3" of snow is still a good bet I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sorry for asking but what does noise level mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Sorry for asking but what does noise level mean. It's an idiom meaning insignificant vacillations. +0.2c one run, -0.1c the next, so forth. No trend or abrupt changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Oh ok. Just wasn't sure exactly what it meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Oh ok. Just wasn't sure exactly what it meant. Technically, it's "white noise", but I shorten it for whatever reason. That may have been the cause of the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Just looking at the GFS and NAM...everything looks good for an all rain event... Even areas as far north as Eau Claire may not see much more then a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Just looking at the GFS and NAM...everything looks good for an all rain event... Even areas as far north as Eau Claire may not see much more then a couple inches. Hoping for a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Saints- Do you have any snow over in Rushford? Here it is just a few piles of ice in shaded spots..I'd say 95% of the ground is bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Saints- Do you have any snow over in Rushford? Here it is just a few piles of ice in shaded spots..I'd say 95% of the ground is bare. Open areas have none. Areas that have alot of shade like the golf course still have some but it is spotty. Tonights rain will take care of alot of that. Have a buddy that is a farmer and alot of there fields that recieve alot of sunlight are already frost free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 MKX forecasting a whopping 0.2" of snow in Madison. I think we're officially not a part of the winter side of this event. First rain band crossing the border, reports of mixed precip with it which isn't surprising given dewpoints in the low 20s across the area. Should be interesting to watch the precip type evolve at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I got a little sleet with the first precip this morning, but the rest is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I got a little sleet with the first precip this morning, but the rest is all rain. That's probably what it'll be like for the rest of us downstream. Got that small region on the precip edge where dry air is causing tons of evaporational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Surprised to see that the GGEM keeps us mostly snow for the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Looks like the precip. is moving in early. Probably end up with some snow and sleet this afternoon. 33°/20° right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm not sure how good the precip type algorithm is for the RUC but its pretty much showing straight up rain for SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Would suggest that across regions being warned for freezing rain (WI-MI-ON-NY) much of the precip may fall as ice pellets or sleet and actual ice accumulation will tend to decrease east, while possibly being severe in the Twin Cities MN region east to about Sheboygan-Green Bay WI, but once into MI the ratio of ice pellets to freezing rain will increase to at least 50:50 cutting into ice accretion, and some parts of e/c MI and s/c ON could have an epic ice pellet storm trending to 5-8 inches of snow across u.p. MI, n third lower MI and central ON north of about Goderich to Elora to Barrie. Some snow will fall further south towards end of event as warm sector is ripped away by coastal development. This will create a relative dry slot in all forms precip near Lake Ontario and Ottawa valley before resumed moderate to heavy bands of snow and ice pellets/sleet/fr rain for New England, where snow likely to be heaviest around Rutland VT to MA/NH border, 5-10 inches. Posted thoughts for further west in central western regional forum, basically saying 15-20 inches snow SD-ND-ncMN with heavy mixed zone east-west through MSP although tendency for mixture to back-door from rain to freezing rain, sleet, ice pellets, snow as storm occludes and swerves east tonight and Wednesday. Heaviest snow likely to be Fargo ND to Bemidji MN to Duluth MN with amounts slowly decreasing across Lake Superior regions but still 10-15 inch potential in parts of u.p. MI. Until Lake Huron storm is likely to produce frequent thunder in precip zones but less active in Ontario, so possibly quite an active day for Wisconsin and Michigan with a lot of noise from thunder and ice pellets, watch for the rare TIPW+ reports. Some places across mixed/snow transition will have that nasty white glaze of frozen snow pellet splatter on roads, could be observed from northern part of MSP metro across parts of WI towards Traverse City MI, Alpena or just south then could show up in parts of Ontario near Hwy 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm not sure how good the precip type algorithm is for the RUC but its pretty much showing straight up rain for SEMI The strength of the surface cold air is not that strong. The NAM (even GFS) a couple days ago was looking like a great event. Since then it has been backing off (or I should say further north) more and more each run. This could very well end up as just a rain event or very short period mix/zr start for most of us in Southern MI. Personally I wish I was going to be in the West/Central UP through this weekend. Tomorrow will be snowstorm #2 with #3 likely on Friday night/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Here's the 12z wrf-nmm precip type loop, usually it does a pretty good job with dynamic cooling events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Here's the 12z wrf-nmm precip type loop, usually it does a pretty good job with dynamic cooling events like this. Starting to think snow/sleet, sleet especially will be the dominant precip type with 0.10" ice. Though more ice if sightly warmer above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Starting to think snow/sleet, sleet especially will be the dominant precip type with 0.10" ice. Though more ice if sightly warmer above the surface. I'ts going to be a close call for us, I'm hoping my being 15 miles or so NE of you helps a bit over the KMOP soundings lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Nothing happening here yet... I see the GFS precip amts were lower with the 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I got a little sleet with the first precip this morning, but the rest is all rain. Unknown precip. being reported at Iowa City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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