Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Any disagreements? Does your 3-6" zone go through Toronto, or north of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 lol @ your hysterics. All this trend to the north does is preclude us from getting any snow from the upper low on Thursday (it stays to the north). There is zero chance the pcpn on Wednesday is plain rain. The GFS verbatim is snow > pellets > dryslot with temp rising to +1 or +2C. And I still think there's time for this to wiggle back south a bit. You're right and we've come a long way from just a few days ago when EC was calling for a high in the low 50s on Wednesday. What a joke that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 You're right and we've come a long way from just a few days ago when EC was calling for a high in the low 50s on Wednesday. What a joke that was. That was pure hype. EC and TWN can be laughable sometimes but when you base your long range forecasts on sites like Myforecast, your better off asking a monkey for the forecast, haha. Also temps are marginal and a slight shift can make a huge difference in terms of precip type. Like Canuck said, its around 0 to 3C and a slight shift would make that range between -1C and 2C. Lets see. Still 48+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Does your 3-6" zone go through Toronto, or north of it? Just north of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 LSE just update to 1-3 for us, but kept the WSW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Just north of Toronto. I'm right on the northern border of the city of Toronto, close to markham, so if i'm lucky i should see 3-4" which would satisfy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 LSE just update to 1-3 for us, but kept the WSW... Maybe the watch is for the icing potential. Was going to check into their ideas, but the central regional office sites are down atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 DDL they are going advisory. They don't completely by the north shift. System should be fully on shore for 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 After reviewing all available model guidance, my first guess for Toronto is 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 After reviewing all available model guidance, my first guess for Toronto is 1-3". Yeah, I'd say it could go as low as 1" if we get into PL sooner than anticipated. Regardless though, this isn't looking like a headline criteria event: One max associated with the triple point. One with the decaying primary low. And us stuck in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 3/4/1985 looking like a nice analog on CIPS - jet structure is a little bit different but 850MB and 500MB charts are looking very similar to 12z run of GFS. However, the temp profiles were more favorable further to the south in 1985. Model temps from 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Where do you get those maps Andy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 3/4/1985 looking like a nice analog on CIPS - jet structure is a little bit different but 850MB and 500MB charts are looking very similar to 12z run of GFS. However, the temp profiles were more favorable further to the south in 1985. Model temps from 12z GFS Toronto saw close to 10" of snow on march 4, 1985 http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=5097&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2012-02-25&Year=1985&Month=3&Day=01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Where do you get those maps Andy? GREAT site http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Downgraded to a WSA now... 850 temps are warmer further north with this storm, but yeah...similar. I wonder if we had snowcover back in 1985 storm? There isn't much to be found anywhere right now up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Toronto saw close to 10" of snow on march 4, 1985 http://www.climate.w...&Month=3&Day=01 Hmm...wow the temp profiles look almost exactly the same with this storm, maybe slightly cooler. If this were to move slower and further south a repeat of that storm is possible but I dont see us getting anything over 6" at this point lol. I think the March 07 storm is a better analogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Nice find Andy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Ya thanks for the link Andy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Hmm...wow the temp profiles look almost exactly the same with this storm, maybe slightly cooler. If this were to move slower and further south a repeat of that storm is possible but I dont see us getting anything over 6" at this point lol. I think the March 07 storm is a better analogue. The difference between this storm and some of the decent CAD induced snow/ice storms of the past like Jan 2/99 or Feb 8/01 was that in those cases the primary storm began occluding much later, allowing a WCB plume of gulf moisture to advect right into the lower lakes. This time around, it looks fairly likely that the best moisture is going to get shunted off to our SE along the theta-e ridge/triple point. 200/300mb jet is basically running ENE across the OV rather than NNE towards the lakes. NARR on the PSU page doesn't have H2 or 3 plots, but I'd guess in Jan 99 or Feb 01 or even March 07 the upper level jet orientation was more meridional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 The difference between this storm and some of the decent CAD induced snow/ice storms of the past like Jan 2/99 or Feb 8/01 was that in those cases the primary storm began occluding much later, allowing a WCB plume of gulf moisture to advect right into the lower lakes. This time around, it looks fairly likely that the best moisture is going to get shunted off to our SE along the theta-e ridge/triple point. 200/300mb jet is basically running ENE across the OV rather than NNE towards the lakes. NARR on the PSU page doesn't have H2 or 3 plots, but I'd guess in Jan 99 or Feb 01 or even March 07 the upper level jet orientation was more meridional. I'm guessing you're no longer optimistic about us getting 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hmm...wow the temp profiles look almost exactly the same with this storm, maybe slightly cooler. If this were to move slower and further south a repeat of that storm is possible but I dont see us getting anything over 6" at this point lol. I think the March 07 storm is a better analogue. It looks similar on a weather map to the 1985 storm, but i can't see us getting moderate snow and a temperature of 19F on Wednesday. We're more likely to start off as wet snow with a temperature around 32-33F, then turn to rain. Just my gut feeling. The trend is not our friend with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Hmm...wow the temp profiles look almost exactly the same with this storm, maybe slightly cooler. If this were to move slower and further south a repeat of that storm is possible but I dont see us getting anything over 6" at this point lol. I think the March 07 storm is a better analogue. I have to admit though that the storm is incredibly similar looking. i mean it was 6C two days before that storm in Toronto, with bare ground. Also, Windsor and London saw more rain and freezing rain than Toronto. 7cm for Windsor, 11cm for london, 24cm for Toronto, 30cm for kingston, 36cm for Montreal. If only.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I have to admit though that the storm is incredibly similar looking. i mean it was 6C two days before that storm in Toronto, with bare ground. Also, Windsor and London saw more rain and freezing rain than Toronto. 7cm for Windsor, 11cm for london, 24cm for Toronto, 30cm for kingston, 36cm for Montreal. If only.... Ya that ain't going to happen in this garbage winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 LOL TWC my forecast for WED: TUE NIGHT-SNOW LIKELY=1", next day strong thunder storms.. first time this year http://www.weather.c.../48312?dayNum=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 I'm guessing you're no longer optimistic about us getting 2-4"? No, I think that's still reasonable. 4" may be tough but 2-3" looks good. I was trying to distinguish this storm from ones that drops hefty amounts like Jan 1999 or Feb 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 THE NWS page is down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 If there is gonna be any south jog one would think it would have to start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 THE NWS page is down? Where you been all day? Down since this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Where you been all day? Down since this morning.. It's been up and down all day! Looks like DTX is up right now, Ajdos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 0z NAM says we make a run at 40 tomorrow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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