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February 28-29 Winter Storm

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
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Posted

Trend since 0z is warmer. Seems that by slowing down the system just a bit, it allows enough of a recovery for the downstream ridge, forcing everything more to the north.

The deepening and occlusion seems to have slowed a bit as well, thus allowing warmer air to get farther north.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

the 12z GFS has come in even warmer for my region. I think the trend is deffinately towards plain rain in Toronto.

lol @ your hysterics. All this trend to the north does is preclude us from getting any snow from the upper low on Thursday (it stays to the north). There is zero chance the pcpn on Wednesday is plain rain. The GFS verbatim is snow > pellets > dryslot with temp rising to +1 or +2C.

And I still think there's time for this to wiggle back south a bit.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

12z ECMWF:

LSE:

WED 00Z 29-FEB   1.3	 1.9    1015	  73	  83    0.01	 556	 543   
WED 06Z 29-FEB   0.9	 1.8    1007	  90	 100    0.22	 551	 546   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   2.7	 2.9	 994	  96	  51    0.33	 536	 541   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   1.0    -6.4	 993	  86	  94    0.10	 530	 535   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   0.8    -5.3	 999	  89	  96    0.09	 534	 535   
THU 06Z 01-MAR  -0.1    -7.6    1005	  86	  85    0.03	 540	 535

MSN:

WED 00Z 29-FEB   2.3	 1.5    1019	  64	  81    0.01	 559	 544   
WED 06Z 29-FEB   1.9	 3.0    1010	  86	 100    0.13	 556	 547   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   3.3	 4.5	 998	  97	  51    0.38	 542	 544   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   5.8    -4.1	 997	  61	  68    0.03	 536	 538   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   1.3    -6.2	 999	  77	  96    0.06	 534	 535   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   0.8    -6.5    1004	  75	  83    0.02	 540	 536

MKE:

WED 06Z 29-FEB   2.2	 2.2    1014	  82	 100    0.09	 558	 547   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   2.3	 5.2    1001	  95	  48    0.43	 548	 547   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   9.7    -0.8	 997	  59	  13    0.05	 539	 542   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   2.7    -6.1	 999	  75	  90    0.01	 535	 536   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.8    -5.8    1003	  72	  74    0.01	 538	 536

SBM:

WED 06Z 29-FEB   1.3	 0.2    1015	  79	  90    0.08	 556	 543   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.1	 0.3    1003	  95	  99    0.39	 547	 545   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   7.0    -0.5	 995	  79	  54    0.12	 537	 541   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   1.5    -6.0	 997	  84	  98    0.04	 532	 534   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.2    -5.4    1001	  89	  83    0.04	 535	 535   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   0.2    -6.8    1007	  86	  62    0.01	 541	 536

MKG:

WED 06Z 29-FEB   1.1	 1.3    1018	  72	  93    0.01	 558	 544   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.3	 3.5    1005	  90	 100    0.37	 552	 548   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   6.1	 3.4	 999	  91	  31    0.17	 541	 543   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   4.6    -3.7    1000	  68	  98    0.01	 535	 536   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.7    -5.7    1002	  81	  95    0.03	 535	 534   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.4    -6.8    1006	  85	  65    0.01	 541	 536   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   1.9    -5.7    1012	  73	  13    0.01	 547	 537

GRR:

WED 06Z 29-FEB  -0.4	 2.2    1019	  74	  90    0.02	 558	 544   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.0	 3.3    1007	  91	  99    0.33	 554	 548   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   7.2	 4.5    1000	  87	  19    0.19	 544	 544   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   5.6    -1.0	 999	  68	  97    0.01	 537	 538   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.5    -6.2    1002	  79	  95    0.03	 536	 535   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.1    -6.4    1006	  81	  61    0.01	 541	 536   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   2.7    -7.1    1011	  68	  15    0.02	 547	 538

BTL:

WED 06Z 29-FEB   0.1	 2.8    1019	  69	  92    0.01	 560	 545   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.7	 5.6    1007	  91	  97    0.35	 556	 550   
WED 18Z 29-FEB  11.4	 5.4    1000	  81	  13    0.13	 546	 546   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   9.2	 1.9	 999	  57	  85    0.01	 540	 541   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   2.6    -6.4    1004	  63	  90    0.01	 539	 537   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   0.4    -6.3    1008	  73	  63    0.01	 544	 537

ADG:

WED 06Z 29-FEB  -0.8	 2.8    1020	  61	  88    0.01	 562	 546   
WED 12Z 29-FEB   0.3	 3.8    1011	  91	  98    0.20	 558	 549   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   8.0	 6.9    1003	  90	  19    0.16	 551	 548

DTW:

 
WED 12Z 29-FEB  -0.6	 1.7    1012	  86	  99    0.16	 558	 548   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   3.7	 6.2    1004	  94	  14    0.18	 551	 548   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   9.8	 6.2	 999	  61	  47    0.01	 543	 544

PHN:

 
WED 12Z 29-FEB  -0.5	 0.3    1014	  66	  99    0.05	 557	 546   
WED 18Z 29-FEB   2.6	 5.4    1005	  92	  10    0.18	 551	 546   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   5.3	 5.0    1000	  95	  61    0.05	 542	 542   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   3.9    -4.0    1002	  82	  99    0.02	 538	 537   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.8    -5.9    1005	  73	  81    0.00	 538	 534   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   4.0    -6.2    1009	  69	  50    0.02	 544	 537   
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   3.0    -5.7    1013	  74	  10    0.02	 549	 538

YKF:

 
WED 12Z 29-FEB  -2.3    -1.4    1020	  77	  81    0.03	 556	 540   
WED 18Z 29-FEB  -0.7    -0.1    1010	  88	  92    0.23	 553	 546   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   0.1	 4.2    1004	  98	  16    0.07	 544	 541   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   0.4	 1.1    1002	  99	  85    0.16	 539	 538   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   0.8    -6.3    1004	  89	  97    0.09	 536	 533   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   2.7    -6.0    1008	  76	  75    0.03	 540	 534   
FRI 00Z 02-MAR  -1.0    -6.6    1012	  88	  55    0.01	 544	 534

YYZ:

 
WED 18Z 29-FEB  -0.2    -1.3    1012	  87	 100    0.25	 553	 544   
THU 00Z 01-MAR   0.8	 2.1    1005	  96	  15    0.11	 545	 541   
THU 06Z 01-MAR   1.2	 2.5    1002	  97	  66    0.12	 540	 538   
THU 12Z 01-MAR   1.8    -5.8    1003	  91	  99    0.10	 536	 533   
THU 18Z 01-MAR   3.6    -5.6    1007	  72	  88    0.02	 539	 533   
FRI 00Z 02-MAR   1.5    -6.1    1012	  82	  75    0.01	 543	 533

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1224 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012

.UPDATE...STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS ON THE UPCOMING STORM. NOT A

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BUT A CHANGE IN THE

AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER WRAPPING INTO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA. WILL PROBABLY MAKE A FEW CHANGES IN SNOW AMOUNTS IN

UPDATED FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR

AREA.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

18z NAM has shifted even a bit further north. I was thinking that we probably reached the apex of this northward trending at 12z, but that may not be the case. This low is going to be moving into the grinder, so I'd be shocked if an 18z NAM depiction isn't the pinnacle of this trend, with the 0z suite at worst holding serve.

BUF has similar thinking.

ON WEDNESDAY...A STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ITS FAR REACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MATURE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK. THE DEEP ASCENT SUPPLIED BY THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIKELY COUPLED H25 JET WILL ENCOURAGE PCPN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE QUESTION BECOMES...HOW FAST DOES THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PCPN/RAIN TAKE PLACE. THIS IS WHERE THE HEADACHES WILL COME INTO PLAY AS THE VARIOUS PACKAGES ARE DEPICTING A FAIRLY TIGHT H85-70 THERMAL GRADIENT PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING ACROSS OUR REGION. GIVEN THE DISTANT PROXIMITY OF THE PARENT LOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A CHANGEOVER...WILL DELAY THIS A BIT WHILE RAISING SNOWFALL NUMBERS. SPEAKING OF WHICH...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING FOR A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES...BUT BEFORE ANY MIXING TAKES PLACE. THIS WOULD PROMOTE AGGREGATION AND COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SNOWFALL OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND 2-4" EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY BEFORE A CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND THEN TO JUST RAIN TAKES PLACE. HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THESE NUMBERS ARE VERY PRELIMINARY THOUGH AND WITH SUCH A 'FLUID' SYSTEM...IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

12z Euro wasnt bad.

We got like 2-5" I believe.

If 0z runs or 12z Runs tomorrow dont shift back south then it will be hard to get something over 2", let alone a inch.

EC is too warm, ignore them.

I don't agree with this at all. If the models hold where they are now, we should get at least a couple of inches of snow. A southerly shift would be nice, but it's my no means necessary for us to avoid a shutout or something.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

I don't agree with this at all. If the models hold where they are now, we should get at least a couple of inches of snow. A southerly shift would be nice, but it's my no means necessary for us to avoid a shutout or something.

I dont think there wil be a whole lot of rain.

I suspect 2-3" now followed by frzing rain and ice pellets then perhaps some little rain showers. Could there be back end snow, its possible...but i expect under a inch.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I dont think there wil be a whole lot of rain.

I suspect 2-3" now followed by frzing rain and ice pellets then perhaps some little rain showers. Could there be back end snow, its possible...but i expect under a inch.

Yeah, this is my thinking as well. You're kinda contradicting yourself a bit from your previous post though.

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