Hoosier Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Trend since 0z is warmer. Seems that by slowing down the system just a bit, it allows enough of a recovery for the downstream ridge, forcing everything more to the north. The deepening and occlusion seems to have slowed a bit as well, thus allowing warmer air to get farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Amazing temperature difference between Toronto and ottawa right now. 49F in Toronto with sunshine, 21F in Ottawa with snow flurries!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm not even going to bring my shovel out of hiding: Hate to say it boys, but bye bye winter after this week (although technically winter is done...but it does look mild in the xtended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm not even going to bring my shovel out of hiding: Hate to say it boys, but bye bye winter after this week (although technically winter is done...but it does look mild in the xtended) Yeah, it never really arrived here. It's been like one continuous November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It has...the whole winter has felt like November... Saints+ I wonder if NWS will drop the WSW for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 It has...the whole winter has felt like November... Saints+ I wonder if NWS will drop the WSW for this area? They will wait for the EURO to see if it trends warmer. At least thts my best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm surprised to see a winter storm watch so far south in MI this morning! Some cold air damming predicted. GRR * THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I am guessing GRR will drop part or all of the watch later this afternoon. It just looks too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 the 12z GFS has come in even warmer for my region. I think the trend is deffinately towards plain rain in Toronto. lol @ your hysterics. All this trend to the north does is preclude us from getting any snow from the upper low on Thursday (it stays to the north). There is zero chance the pcpn on Wednesday is plain rain. The GFS verbatim is snow > pellets > dryslot with temp rising to +1 or +2C. And I still think there's time for this to wiggle back south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z ECMWF: LSE: WED 00Z 29-FEB 1.3 1.9 1015 73 83 0.01 556 543 WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.9 1.8 1007 90 100 0.22 551 546 WED 12Z 29-FEB 2.7 2.9 994 96 51 0.33 536 541 WED 18Z 29-FEB 1.0 -6.4 993 86 94 0.10 530 535 THU 00Z 01-MAR 0.8 -5.3 999 89 96 0.09 534 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR -0.1 -7.6 1005 86 85 0.03 540 535 MSN: WED 00Z 29-FEB 2.3 1.5 1019 64 81 0.01 559 544 WED 06Z 29-FEB 1.9 3.0 1010 86 100 0.13 556 547 WED 12Z 29-FEB 3.3 4.5 998 97 51 0.38 542 544 WED 18Z 29-FEB 5.8 -4.1 997 61 68 0.03 536 538 THU 00Z 01-MAR 1.3 -6.2 999 77 96 0.06 534 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR 0.8 -6.5 1004 75 83 0.02 540 536 MKE: WED 06Z 29-FEB 2.2 2.2 1014 82 100 0.09 558 547 WED 12Z 29-FEB 2.3 5.2 1001 95 48 0.43 548 547 WED 18Z 29-FEB 9.7 -0.8 997 59 13 0.05 539 542 THU 00Z 01-MAR 2.7 -6.1 999 75 90 0.01 535 536 THU 06Z 01-MAR 1.8 -5.8 1003 72 74 0.01 538 536 SBM: WED 06Z 29-FEB 1.3 0.2 1015 79 90 0.08 556 543 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.1 0.3 1003 95 99 0.39 547 545 WED 18Z 29-FEB 7.0 -0.5 995 79 54 0.12 537 541 THU 00Z 01-MAR 1.5 -6.0 997 84 98 0.04 532 534 THU 06Z 01-MAR 1.2 -5.4 1001 89 83 0.04 535 535 THU 12Z 01-MAR 0.2 -6.8 1007 86 62 0.01 541 536 MKG: WED 06Z 29-FEB 1.1 1.3 1018 72 93 0.01 558 544 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.3 3.5 1005 90 100 0.37 552 548 WED 18Z 29-FEB 6.1 3.4 999 91 31 0.17 541 543 THU 00Z 01-MAR 4.6 -3.7 1000 68 98 0.01 535 536 THU 06Z 01-MAR 1.7 -5.7 1002 81 95 0.03 535 534 THU 12Z 01-MAR 1.4 -6.8 1006 85 65 0.01 541 536 THU 18Z 01-MAR 1.9 -5.7 1012 73 13 0.01 547 537 GRR: WED 06Z 29-FEB -0.4 2.2 1019 74 90 0.02 558 544 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.0 3.3 1007 91 99 0.33 554 548 WED 18Z 29-FEB 7.2 4.5 1000 87 19 0.19 544 544 THU 00Z 01-MAR 5.6 -1.0 999 68 97 0.01 537 538 THU 06Z 01-MAR 1.5 -6.2 1002 79 95 0.03 536 535 THU 12Z 01-MAR 1.1 -6.4 1006 81 61 0.01 541 536 THU 18Z 01-MAR 2.7 -7.1 1011 68 15 0.02 547 538 BTL: WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.1 2.8 1019 69 92 0.01 560 545 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.7 5.6 1007 91 97 0.35 556 550 WED 18Z 29-FEB 11.4 5.4 1000 81 13 0.13 546 546 THU 00Z 01-MAR 9.2 1.9 999 57 85 0.01 540 541 THU 06Z 01-MAR 2.6 -6.4 1004 63 90 0.01 539 537 THU 12Z 01-MAR 0.4 -6.3 1008 73 63 0.01 544 537 ADG: WED 06Z 29-FEB -0.8 2.8 1020 61 88 0.01 562 546 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.3 3.8 1011 91 98 0.20 558 549 WED 18Z 29-FEB 8.0 6.9 1003 90 19 0.16 551 548 DTW: WED 12Z 29-FEB -0.6 1.7 1012 86 99 0.16 558 548 WED 18Z 29-FEB 3.7 6.2 1004 94 14 0.18 551 548 THU 00Z 01-MAR 9.8 6.2 999 61 47 0.01 543 544 PHN: WED 12Z 29-FEB -0.5 0.3 1014 66 99 0.05 557 546 WED 18Z 29-FEB 2.6 5.4 1005 92 10 0.18 551 546 THU 00Z 01-MAR 5.3 5.0 1000 95 61 0.05 542 542 THU 06Z 01-MAR 3.9 -4.0 1002 82 99 0.02 538 537 THU 12Z 01-MAR 1.8 -5.9 1005 73 81 0.00 538 534 THU 18Z 01-MAR 4.0 -6.2 1009 69 50 0.02 544 537 FRI 00Z 02-MAR 3.0 -5.7 1013 74 10 0.02 549 538 YKF: WED 12Z 29-FEB -2.3 -1.4 1020 77 81 0.03 556 540 WED 18Z 29-FEB -0.7 -0.1 1010 88 92 0.23 553 546 THU 00Z 01-MAR 0.1 4.2 1004 98 16 0.07 544 541 THU 06Z 01-MAR 0.4 1.1 1002 99 85 0.16 539 538 THU 12Z 01-MAR 0.8 -6.3 1004 89 97 0.09 536 533 THU 18Z 01-MAR 2.7 -6.0 1008 76 75 0.03 540 534 FRI 00Z 02-MAR -1.0 -6.6 1012 88 55 0.01 544 534 YYZ: WED 18Z 29-FEB -0.2 -1.3 1012 87 100 0.25 553 544 THU 00Z 01-MAR 0.8 2.1 1005 96 15 0.11 545 541 THU 06Z 01-MAR 1.2 2.5 1002 97 66 0.12 540 538 THU 12Z 01-MAR 1.8 -5.8 1003 91 99 0.10 536 533 THU 18Z 01-MAR 3.6 -5.6 1007 72 88 0.02 539 533 FRI 00Z 02-MAR 1.5 -6.1 1012 82 75 0.01 543 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I am guessing GRR will drop part or all of the watch later this afternoon. It just looks too warm. 0.25" plus ice still possible given NAM/Euro especialy northern 3 rows of counties away from lakeshore. I'd drop the watch south of I96 for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NWS still shows 3 to 6 here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 NWS still shows 3 to 6 here.... If I could lock in 3 inches of slop right now I would. I have mu doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Already expecting nothing more than 2 rainy, cool days in Madison from this beast. Might get a glaze at the beginning and a dusting of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 This storm should help improve the drought conditions in the upper Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Normally rain this time of the year wouldnt help my region in a drought to much, but lack of frost will make this storm quite beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1224 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012 .UPDATE...STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS ON THE UPCOMING STORM. NOT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BUT A CHANGE IN THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER WRAPPING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WILL PROBABLY MAKE A FEW CHANGES IN SNOW AMOUNTS IN UPDATED FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Any disagreements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Any disagreements? Southern extent of 3-6 may be to far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Any disagreements? I just don't see these amnts verifying.. IDK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 SREF has been trending decidedly north with the ice threat in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 18z NAM has shifted even a bit further north. I was thinking that we probably reached the apex of this northward trending at 12z, but that may not be the case. This low is going to be moving into the grinder, so I'd be shocked if an 18z NAM depiction isn't the pinnacle of this trend, with the 0z suite at worst holding serve. BUF has similar thinking. ON WEDNESDAY...A STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ITS FAR REACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MATURE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK. THE DEEP ASCENT SUPPLIED BY THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIKELY COUPLED H25 JET WILL ENCOURAGE PCPN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE QUESTION BECOMES...HOW FAST DOES THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PCPN/RAIN TAKE PLACE. THIS IS WHERE THE HEADACHES WILL COME INTO PLAY AS THE VARIOUS PACKAGES ARE DEPICTING A FAIRLY TIGHT H85-70 THERMAL GRADIENT PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING ACROSS OUR REGION. GIVEN THE DISTANT PROXIMITY OF THE PARENT LOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A CHANGEOVER...WILL DELAY THIS A BIT WHILE RAISING SNOWFALL NUMBERS. SPEAKING OF WHICH...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING FOR A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES...BUT BEFORE ANY MIXING TAKES PLACE. THIS WOULD PROMOTE AGGREGATION AND COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SNOWFALL OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND 2-4" EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY BEFORE A CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND THEN TO JUST RAIN TAKES PLACE. HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THESE NUMBERS ARE VERY PRELIMINARY THOUGH AND WITH SUCH A 'FLUID' SYSTEM...IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Still think were in line force 2-3" snowfall Canuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Still think were in line force 2-3" snowfall Canuck? 12z Euro wasnt bad. We got like 2-5" I believe. If 0z runs or 12z Runs tomorrow dont shift back south then it will be hard to get something over 2", let alone a inch. EC is too warm, ignore them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Still think were in line force 2-3" snowfall Canuck? Sounds about right. But the additional snowfall for Thursday doesn't look like it'll be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12z Euro wasnt bad. We got like 2-5" I believe. If 0z runs or 12z Runs tomorrow dont shift back south then it will be hard to get something over 2", let alone a inch. EC is too warm, ignore them. I don't agree with this at all. If the models hold where they are now, we should get at least a couple of inches of snow. A southerly shift would be nice, but it's my no means necessary for us to avoid a shutout or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't agree with this at all. If the models hold where they are now, we should get at least a couple of inches of snow. A southerly shift would be nice, but it's my no means necessary for us to avoid a shutout or something. I dont think there wil be a whole lot of rain. I suspect 2-3" now followed by frzing rain and ice pellets then perhaps some little rain showers. Could there be back end snow, its possible...but i expect under a inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I dont think there wil be a whole lot of rain. I suspect 2-3" now followed by frzing rain and ice pellets then perhaps some little rain showers. Could there be back end snow, its possible...but i expect under a inch. Yeah, this is my thinking as well. You're kinda contradicting yourself a bit from your previous post though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'm thinking 2" of snow for Toronto. Maybe 4-6" for Ottawa and Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Yeah, this is my thinking at well. You're kinda contradicting yourself a bit from your previous post though. Yeah i just saw all the models since my last post and I noticed some errors in my original post and based on your calls as well. No hyping this time, over any run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.