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February 28-29 Winter Storm

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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  On 2/27/2012 at 2:40 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Trend since 0z is warmer. Seems that by slowing down the system just a bit, it allows enough of a recovery for the downstream ridge, forcing everything more to the north.

The deepening and occlusion seems to have slowed a bit as well, thus allowing warmer air to get farther north.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

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  On 2/27/2012 at 5:25 PM, daddylonglegs said:

I'm not even going to bring my shovel out of hiding:

2012022712_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_042.gif

Hate to say it boys, but bye bye winter after this week :) (although technically winter is done...but it does look mild in the xtended)

Yeah, it never really arrived here. It's been like one continuous November.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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  On 2/27/2012 at 4:00 PM, Ottawa Blizzard said:

the 12z GFS has come in even warmer for my region. I think the trend is deffinately towards plain rain in Toronto.

lol @ your hysterics. All this trend to the north does is preclude us from getting any snow from the upper low on Thursday (it stays to the north). There is zero chance the pcpn on Wednesday is plain rain. The GFS verbatim is snow > pellets > dryslot with temp rising to +1 or +2C.

And I still think there's time for this to wiggle back south a bit.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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Posted

12z ECMWF:

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kab2791

kab2791

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  On 2/27/2012 at 6:05 PM, WestMichigan said:

I am guessing GRR will drop part or all of the watch later this afternoon. It just looks too warm.

0.25" plus ice still possible given NAM/Euro especialy northern 3 rows of counties away from lakeshore. I'd drop the watch south of I96 for now.

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1224 PM CST MON FEB 27 2012

.UPDATE...STILL LOOKING AT THE TRENDS ON THE UPCOMING STORM. NOT A

SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BUT A CHANGE IN THE

AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF THE WARM LAYER WRAPPING INTO SOUTHERN

MINNESOTA. WILL PROBABLY MAKE A FEW CHANGES IN SNOW AMOUNTS IN

UPDATED FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR

AREA.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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18z NAM has shifted even a bit further north. I was thinking that we probably reached the apex of this northward trending at 12z, but that may not be the case. This low is going to be moving into the grinder, so I'd be shocked if an 18z NAM depiction isn't the pinnacle of this trend, with the 0z suite at worst holding serve.

BUF has similar thinking.

ON WEDNESDAY...A STACKED STORM SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ITS FAR REACHING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MATURE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TO WESTERN NEW YORK. THE DEEP ASCENT SUPPLIED BY THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LIKELY COUPLED H25 JET WILL ENCOURAGE PCPN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE QUESTION BECOMES...HOW FAST DOES THE CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PCPN/RAIN TAKE PLACE. THIS IS WHERE THE HEADACHES WILL COME INTO PLAY AS THE VARIOUS PACKAGES ARE DEPICTING A FAIRLY TIGHT H85-70 THERMAL GRADIENT PROGRESSIVELY LIFTING ACROSS OUR REGION. GIVEN THE DISTANT PROXIMITY OF THE PARENT LOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LOW WILL BE WEAKENING...AM NOT CONFIDENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM ADVECTION AS DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A CHANGEOVER...WILL DELAY THIS A BIT WHILE RAISING SNOWFALL NUMBERS. SPEAKING OF WHICH...IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL SOUNDING FOR A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AFTER THE COLUMN SATURATES...BUT BEFORE ANY MIXING TAKES PLACE. THIS WOULD PROMOTE AGGREGATION AND COULD LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL NUMBERS. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SNOWFALL OF UP TO 1-3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND 2-4" EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY BEFORE A CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND THEN TO JUST RAIN TAKES PLACE. HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THESE NUMBERS ARE VERY PRELIMINARY THOUGH AND WITH SUCH A 'FLUID' SYSTEM...IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO UPDATES.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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  On 2/27/2012 at 9:18 PM, toronto blizzard said:

Still think were in line force 2-3" snowfall Canuck?

12z Euro wasnt bad.

We got like 2-5" I believe.

If 0z runs or 12z Runs tomorrow dont shift back south then it will be hard to get something over 2", let alone a inch.

EC is too warm, ignore them.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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  On 2/27/2012 at 9:21 PM, Snowstorms said:

12z Euro wasnt bad.

We got like 2-5" I believe.

If 0z runs or 12z Runs tomorrow dont shift back south then it will be hard to get something over 2", let alone a inch.

EC is too warm, ignore them.

I don't agree with this at all. If the models hold where they are now, we should get at least a couple of inches of snow. A southerly shift would be nice, but it's my no means necessary for us to avoid a shutout or something.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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  On 2/27/2012 at 9:23 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

I don't agree with this at all. If the models hold where they are now, we should get at least a couple of inches of snow. A southerly shift would be nice, but it's my no means necessary for us to avoid a shutout or something.

I dont think there wil be a whole lot of rain.

I suspect 2-3" now followed by frzing rain and ice pellets then perhaps some little rain showers. Could there be back end snow, its possible...but i expect under a inch.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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  On 2/27/2012 at 9:25 PM, Snowstorms said:

I dont think there wil be a whole lot of rain.

I suspect 2-3" now followed by frzing rain and ice pellets then perhaps some little rain showers. Could there be back end snow, its possible...but i expect under a inch.

Yeah, this is my thinking as well. You're kinda contradicting yourself a bit from your previous post though.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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  On 2/27/2012 at 9:28 PM, snowstormcanuck said:

Yeah, this is my thinking at well. You're kinda contradicting yourself a bit from your previous post though.

Yeah i just saw all the models since my last post and I noticed some errors in my original post and based on your calls as well.

No hyping this time, over any run lol.

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