Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Although the event just prior to this is looking less impressive, models are coming into agreement on there being a significant storm to close out the month. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 With that strong High over Quebec I think this one has a very real ice storm potential to it. Shallow Arctic air funneling into the region out of the E/NE while warm air moves in over top it, plus the potential snowpack for the region that is coming today/tonight/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like this could have decent snow and severe potential. When's the last time we had a good leap day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Several of the 12z GFS ensembles are more robust than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Looks like this could have decent snow and severe potential. When's the last time we had a good leap day storm? Specifically leap day? I don't know lol although this system does have some similarities to the Super Tuesday system albeit that it closes off quicker than the Super Tuesday storm. Of course no 2 systems are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Specifically leap day? I don't know lol although this system does have some similarities to the Super Tuesday system albeit that it closes off quicker than the Super Tuesday storm. Of course no 2 systems are the same. Yes, specifically leap day. I think there might've been a good one back in the 80's but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12z Euro goes crazy with this, takes a 992mb sfc low into central IA next Weds. It occludes there as new area of low pressure develops to its east. The temp change at 850mb this run is crazy here. Go from 4 deg C to -8 deg C in about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 12z Euro gets me to 16C Wednesday... yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I saw a DGEX snowfall map of this storm yesterday. It had 30"+ totals around SE MN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 How much QPF was the euro showing for YYZ? And how were the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 How much QPF was the euro showing for YYZ? And how were the temps? Who cares. You know we'll just end up getting screwed. Time to find a new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Teleconnections are weak for this event...only positive is the PNA is going negative, but that isn't saying much overall. GOM is wide open though. Dependent upon low amplitude phasing which never incites confidence. But I am definitely watching the threat. ECMWF verbatim would be historic CO Low across southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Who cares. You know we'll just end up getting screwed. Time to find a new hobby. LOL. Actually the WxUnderground Euro snow maps show a decent band of snow as the low occludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Teleconnections are weak for this event...only positive is the PNA is going negative, but that isn't saying much overall. GOM is wide open though. Dependent upon low amplitude phasing which never incites confidence. But I am definitely watching the threat. ECMWF verbatim would be historic CO Low across southern MN. there's been nothing historic about any lows....anywhere (except on model fantasy ranges) this winter. Why would that change now? The only way to get snow this winter is having one of those putridly weak surface reflections scoot underneath you before the stale cold air from the latest transient trough moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 there's been nothing historic about any lows....anywhere (except on model fantasy ranges) this winter. Why would that change now? The only way to get snow this winter is having one of those putridly weak surface reflections scoot underneath you before the stale cold air from the latest transient trough moves out. Tis why I am extremely hesitant right now too. Day 5 actually isn't too fantasy in terms of time though, but you are right, low amplitude phases are not conducive to high confidence. Toss in seasonal trends and no reason to get excited until day 4 at best. I will say I would rather see ECMWF/UK/CMC suggesting a storm over the GFS op this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Several of the 12z GFS ensembles are more robust than the OP. Some of those are bad ass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Several of the 12z GFS ensembles are more robust than the OP. ... It is pretty impressive that every ensemble member has a storm in the MW/GL/OV area on that 144 hour map! Normally there is a member or two that is like 'what storm'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 18z GFS a trifle different than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 18z GFS a trifle different than the 12z run. You see this all the time...12 GFS has one solution, 12Z ECMWF suggests something completely different than the 18Z looks identical to ECMWF. Then 0Z guidance comes in and none suggest the same solution. Can you see I am being pessimistic? That said, it does seem the day 3 plains storm will be a sacrificial lamb as guidance keeps hinting that much of that first western trough occludes along the west coast. Better phase for second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 You see this all the time...12 GFS has one solution, 12Z ECMWF suggests something completely different than the 18Z looks identical to ECMWF. Then 0Z guidance comes in and none suggest the same solution. Can you see I am being pessimistic? That said, it does seem the day 3 plains storm will be a sacrificial lamb as guidance keeps hinting that much of that first western trough occludes along the west coast. Better phase for second storm. I wouldn't say pessimistic at all this winter. Just a flat out reality this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 This threat, IMO, is becoming far more interesting for one very good reason, the GOM is completely wide open, and moisture flux would be significant. Important both for heavy precip potential as well as rapid intensification via LHR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Euro looks like a GOOD hit for this area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 DLL it would be something if the next one cut to our left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This threat, IMO, is becoming far more interesting for one very good reason, the GOM is completely wide open, and moisture flux would be significant. Important both for heavy precip potential as well as rapid intensification via LHR. Unlike our moisture starved Feb. 23 storm of today in the Ohio Valley region this one does have greater potential that bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Storm will be a nice introduction to Met. Spring. The 00z GFS is pretty close to a significant severe weather event. Would just like to see slightly better moisture fields to feel better about the threat north of the OH River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 60s dews all the way to Cairo...pretty impressive for 6+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like it scoots right across Wisconsin heading through GRB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Large Bermuda high to act as a moisture pump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This is one time this winter when the east trend would be our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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