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February 24-25 Severe/Wind/General obs/discussion


Ellinwood

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stuck at 54-55 here in downtown DC

Brutal. Jumped to 56.9 at home a half hour ago with pretty good sunshine, then it clouded back over and is now sitting at 55.8. And from satellite, it looks like we are now in the wash from the convection out west and have no chance at any insolation for a while now. Mid-70s bust.

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Brutal. Jumped to 56.9 at home a half hour ago with pretty good sunshine, then it clouded back over and is now sitting at 55.8. And from satellite, it looks like we are now in the wash from the convection out west and have no chance at any insolation for a while now. Mid-70s bust.

I wore a polo to work - no jacket.

:cry:

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Playing with the warm front can be good. You want to be east of RDU for real torn risk IMO. I think this will end up a bit overhyped.. Tho we spend a lot of time worrying about tornadoes that hit very localized areas in general.

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 38

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC001-003-007-025-033-036-041-047-049-053-057-065-073-075-079-

081-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-109-111-113-115-117-119-125-

127-131-133-135-137-145-147-149-159-175-177-179-181-183-193-199-

540-550-570-595-620-630-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-

830-250100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0038.120224T1820Z-120225T0100Z/

VA

. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK ALBEMARLE AMELIA

BRUNSWICK CAROLINE CHARLES CITY

CHESTERFIELD CULPEPER CUMBERLAND

DINWIDDIE ESSEX FLUVANNA

GLOUCESTER GOOCHLAND GREENE

GREENSVILLE HANOVER HENRICO

ISLE OF WIGHT JAMES CITY KING AND QUEEN

KING GEORGE KING WILLIAM LANCASTER

LOUISA LUNENBURG MADISON

MATHEWS MECKLENBURG MIDDLESEX

NELSON NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON

NORTHUMBERLAND NOTTOWAY ORANGE

POWHATAN PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE

RICHMOND SOUTHAMPTON SPOTSYLVANIA

STAFFORD SURRY SUSSEX

WESTMORELAND YORK

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

CHARLOTTESVILLE CHESAPEAKE COLONIAL HEIGHTS

EMPORIA FRANKLIN FREDERICKSBURG

HAMPTON HOPEWELL NEWPORT NEWS

NORFOLK PETERSBURG POQUOSON

PORTSMOUTH RICHMOND SUFFOLK

VIRGINIA BEACH WILLIAMSBURG

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 38

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TORNADO WATCH 38 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC009-017-019-037-039-045-047-250100-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0038.120224T1820Z-120225T0100Z/

MD

. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER

SOMERSET ST. MARYS WICOMICO

WORCESTER

$$

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Playing with the warm front can be good. You want to be east of RDU for real torn risk IMO. I think this will end up a bit overhyped.. Tho we spend a lot of time worrying about tornadoes that hit very localized areas in general.

Tho it looks like some of that area getting worked over. NC/VA border might be good.

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Fresh AFD from LWX.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

116 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN OHIO WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE

THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO

THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

JUST GOT OFF PHONE W/ SPC - A TOR WTCH WL BE ISSUED FOR OUR SRN

CWA FM NELSON E TO ST. MARY`S THRU 01Z. STORMS WL MOVE VERY RAPIDLY

AND WE`LL PRBLY BE ABLE TO CLR THE WRN PART OF THE WATCH DURG LATE

AFTN.

WARM FNT S OF CHO HAVG DIFFICULTY PUSHING N ACROSS THE CWA. THIS

IS KEEPING MRNG TEMPS BLO XPCTD VALUES. BUT BLV AS THE CD FNT

DRAWS CLOSER THE WARM FNT WL BE FORCED N AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL

CLIMB INTO THE U60S/L70S E OF THE MTNS.

2/24 AND AREA IS CONTEMPLATING SVR WX INSTEAD OF WINTER WX. TSTM

WTCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. 12Z NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW FNT

REACHING MRB ARND 3 PM...NHK AT 6 PM. THIS IS LN W/ ERLR MDL

TIMING. NHK HAS ARND 1000 J/KG DURG THE LATE AFTN HRS. OVERALL

HODOGRAPH IS STRAIGHT LN/UNDIRECTIONAL FLOW...BUT HODOGRAPH DOES

SHOW SOME TURNING IN THE LOWEST LVLS - THE MOST IMPORTANT PART.

SREF SVR PARAMETERS SHOW THE BEST SVR THREAT IS E OF I-95 AFTR 4

PM...SUSPECT THAT LWR SRN MD HAS THE BEST CHC OF ANY IN THE CWA.

A STRONG PRESSURE SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON

ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT TO

MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND AS WELL AS ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF

THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING

AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE AS WELL AS

LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. WIND GUSTS

AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND

GUSTS AROUND 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

-- Changed Discussion --

DC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DCZ001.

MD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ003-501-

502.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ006-007-

009>011-013-014-016>018.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ004-005.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>031-

503-504.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ050>057-502.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ036>040-

042-501.

WV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ050>053-

055-501>506.

MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.

--

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