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February 24-25 Severe/Wind/General obs/discussion


Ellinwood

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1100 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO CNTRL VA/NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 36...

VALID 241700Z - 241800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 36 CONTINUES.

...NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE MIDDLE

ATLANTIC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

STRONG FORCING IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL

APPALACHIANS...PER POST FRONTAL BAND OF WEAK SHOWERS THAT ARE

EXPANDING FROM SRN OH/ERN KY INTO WV/WRN VA.

DOWNSTREAM...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE HIGHER

ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER...SWWD ALONG A SHARPENING SURGING

FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST OA FIELDS EXHIBIT VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE

RATES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS VA/NC WHERE SFC-3KM VALUES ARE

NOW APPROACHING 8C/KM. IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS ARE

NEARING THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE

MID 70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. LATEST THINKING IS FRONTAL

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE

MOUNTAINS SUPPORTED IN THE LARGE SCALE BY STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF

DEEPENING TROUGH.

..DARROW.. 02/24/2012

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 34808471 37798091 37787797 34818188 34808471

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Just a quick update from the road. @ellinwood and I are on the road, I-95 south, passing around Fredericksburg, VA now. Targeting VA/NC border first, try for further south, pending latest review/runs.

I'm working on getting us up on spotter network, but GPS connector is rusty and I had not fixed it yet. Might try to do tracking via RadarScope. Never done it, so just have to figure out how. I'll be tweeting too (see the sig for the link).

Skies are already clearing here and outside temp according to car is 73°f . Don't know the dew pt. though (no wx station).

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*headdesk*

He beat SPC ;)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1143 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC...CNTRL/ERN NC...ERN VA...SRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241743Z - 241915Z

THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NERN SC...CNTRL/ERN

NC...ERN VA...AND SRN MD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TORNADO WATCH

WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z.

A WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD NRN

VA AND SRN MD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY

CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND

INCREASING PRE-FRONTAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- INDICATED BY SFC

PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2 MB PER 2 HRS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT

CONVECTION BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A VERY STRONG

MID-LEVEL JET CORE CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE

BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES EXCEEDING 60 KT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE BANDS AND

CLUSTERS OF FAST-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. WITH 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF

30-45 KT...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION

WITH ANY LEWP PATTERNS AND CONVECTION WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT

WHERE SFC WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BACKED RELATIVE TO THE WLY FLOW

ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY IN THE NRN EXTENT OF THE UNSTABLE SECTOR

EXISTS...AS WELL AS THE IMPACT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER CNTRL/ERN NC

AND NERN SC. HOWEVER...IN BOTH INSTANCES...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED

TO BE SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUCH

THAT A SVR/TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE.

..COHEN.. 02/24/2012

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