Cheeznado Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I am astonished at the mid level winds tomorrow afternoon, There is a 140kt 500mb wind max in WV on the GFS and classic diffluence. This could be quite a severe event for so far north this early. The WSI RPM has some very nasty looking cells from the Carolinas all the way to NJ at 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 As detailed as ever before, a Heavy rain, with fairly large and similar rain drops with a moderate level of water content is moving through DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I have to say its pretty cool to have lightning and thunder at 1am in February... The way this winter has been, bring on severe season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 WOOOOOOOOOOOO STORMS! GOIN' CHASING BABY! ...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST... THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE KINEMATIC FIELDS OVERSPREADING A MODEST BUT SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SHOULD YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...AS A SHARP COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON A PLUME OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY OBSERVED GPS AND 00Z TLH RAOB PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 IN/. ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A BROADENING WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR INITIALLY AROUND 60 KT...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH TIME...KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY FROM 700 MB AND HIGHER ALOFT/...PROMOTING RATHER FAST STORM MOTION AND LIKELY AIDING IN THE ORGANIZATION OF ONE OF MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS RACING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROAD ZONE OF 60-90 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AMIDST CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION MAY YIELD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE SPEED SHEAR SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONCENTRATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...850 MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO AOA 50 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. STILL...THE EXPECTATION OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING INSTABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Feeling like I might be making a few drop-ins to this thread tomorrow in addition to the SE thread and the threads for the big system across the Central US next week. Most recent WRF-NMM run... http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 433 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WISE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... CITY OF NORTON IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 500 AM EST * AT 426 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BENHAM. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... NORTON...WISE...PARDEE...POUND...COEBURN AND ST. PAUL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 LWX went with a high wind warning for n central MD and the Blue Ridge and west. Advisory for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Heavy rain came through between 3 and 4 AM, 0.56" since midnight. Wind advisory today though it seems like it's been very windy for several days now. Nature obs.- Red Wing Blackbirds showed up yesterday in my backyard. Their song is a sure sign of spring. Robins have returned from the woodlands and are starting to sing. And, my daffodils are blooming on the south side of the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Wide range of temps out there this morning. Temps near the upper 30s along the MD/PA border and in the low 60s in SE VA. Temps also spiking into the mid 50s right now in SW PA, northern WV and extreme. Front appears to be starting the push through Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Rained pretty good overnight, around 1ish or so? 06z NAM doesn't look nearly as good for those of us north of DC as the 18z and 00z runs did, in terms of storms. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Rained pretty good overnight, around 1ish or so? 06z NAM doesn't look nearly as good for those of us north of DC as the 18z and 00z runs did, in terms of storms. Oh well. BUFKIT still printed out like 750j/kg of CAPE. I know that's not the whole story but I wouldn't put a fork in it just yet. Additionally, I think the hi-res models are pretty unanimous with bringing storms mainly to south and east of 95. You might be out of luck in terms of storms - Well so might I be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not our region but impressive that there is already a mesoscale disco out for a tornado watch to potentially be issued by 13-14z timeframe in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 BUFKIT still printed out like 750j/kg of CAPE. I know that's not the whole story but I wouldn't put a fork in it just yet. Additionally, I think the hi-res models are pretty unanimous with bringing storms mainly to south and east of 95. You might be out of luck in terms of storms - Well so might I be. Yeah, I was looking at the high res stuff before I posted and saw that they weren't as robust up my way as they were yesterday. Oh well... all good, its only february so I'm not too upset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yeah, I was looking at the high res stuff before I posted and saw that they weren't as robust up my way as they were yesterday. Oh well... all good, its only february so I'm not too upset. Across the board everyone will get in on winds though. Kind of exciting I guess - especially since PEPCO has improved around my parts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The city of Norton and Wise County had 8-10" of snow last Sunday. 5 days later a tornado warning. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 76 @ DCA today will be tough to get to if these clouds and showers stick around for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Not too bad I suppose - Also, I would think we should clear out once the warm front gets farther north. We'll see once visible satellite has a better view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 What site do you all use for your sim radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 What site do you all use for your sim radar? NCEP/LWX local model site for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Moderate risk Point Lookout to Richmond-South Hill-Burlington NC down to near Columbia SC and to the coast. up to 45% hatched for wind and 10% TOR, slight risk expanded farther west to Blue Ridge in Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 MODERATE risk in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Pretty much where Ellinwood said it looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like we will clear out starting shortly here east of the Blue Ridge from DC south as well as per first shots on visible, but the just as the warm front looked like it would pass north of our area a wedge built in down the east slopes and piedmont of Va to I-64 during the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 MODERATE risk in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Pretty much where Ellinwood said it looked good. Vis sat is showing a nice open area southern va and central nc. That expands to eastern parts and it will be a good spot to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Across the board everyone will get in on winds though. Kind of exciting I guess - especially since PEPCO has improved around my parts lol. Exciting until you lose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Exciting until you lose power Jokes on YOU MAPGIRL - This power outage plagued family finally got a generator lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Jokes on YOU MAPGIRL - This power outage plagued family finally got a generator lol. Well hot damn! Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Well hot damn! Congrats If Ellinwood goes chasing today he should pick up some good stuff down there. I think we are cooked except for some gusty showers (my thoughts have not changed since yesterday). Near the Bay and east might be better. I hope to be pleasantly surprised. Also a side note - we have not had an outage since we got the generator of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Is everything blossoming in your area already? Green grass, cherry blossoms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Just south of DC could be interesting if the HRRR is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Went with shorts and t shirt to start this morning at 530. Big mistake. Almost froze before the run started. Brisk wind with light colddddd rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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