Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I've jinxed us all... ...EASTERN GULF STATES THRU SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST... LINGERING SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLVING PATTERN...AND CONCERN ABOUT THE DEGREE OF THE POTENTIALLY DRYING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE... PARTICULARLY THE NAM...IS SUGGESTIVE OF CONSIDERABLY GREATER POTENTIAL THAN DEPICTED BY THE CURRENT OUTLOOK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE NAM/SREF INDICATE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AND BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS FOR AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING 500 J/KG. IF THIS BECOMES THE CASE...GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS SEEM PROBABLE...IN REGIME WHERE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY STRONG AND SHEARED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS OF 50-60+ KT. POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP FOR...AT LEAST... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ----- I'll add my own analysis later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Since i never follow severe Mark, is the Nam a good model for severe storms and is it like winter storms where it is only usefull within 48 hours?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Since i never follow severe Mark, is the Nam a good model for severe storms and is it like winter storms where it is only usefull within 48 hours?. The NAM typically does better than the GFS for hitting on the major severe parameters like CAPE. However, I have noticed that in the eastern US sometimes the NAM can be a little too aggressive with the amount of directional wind shear in the lower levels. An example of this would be the NAM showing surface winds out of the south ahead of a cold front while the GFS has surface winds out of the southwest... with the southwest winds verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I thought you weren't giving this much of a shot based on your comments in the other thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I bet we'll see a few isolated gusty showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I bet we'll see a few isolated gusty showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder. The real threat is the synoptic wind gusts as you noted kenny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 the timing shift makes it slightly more interesting but only slightly in the dc area. plus ill be on a plane or in FL so i dont care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 the timing shift makes it slightly more interesting but only slightly in the dc area. plus ill be on a plane or in FL so i dont care. this sounds like a nicer way to say meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 this sounds like a nicer way to say meh Pretty much. He's putting camo over his "meh's" Though I'm sure tomorrow will be memorable when some idiot on 95 throws his cigarette out the window and sets a park on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The NAM typically does better than the GFS for hitting on the major severe parameters like CAPE. However, I have noticed that in the eastern US sometimes the NAM can be a little too aggressive with the amount of directional wind shear in the lower levels. An example of this would be the NAM showing surface winds out of the south ahead of a cold front while the GFS has surface winds out of the southwest... with the southwest winds verifying. Thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Ian's gonna be mad when he misses the EF-5 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Some chances for having trashcans blown away once they are dumped tomorrow. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 140 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 MDZ003>005-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-501-503-504-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-240215- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0001.120224T1500Z-120224T2300Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY- CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH- FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON- RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG... WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON... LEESBURG...WARRENTON...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG... CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG... ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 140 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Though I'm sure tomorrow will be memorable when some idiot on 95 throws his cigarette out the window and sets a park on fire. Pretty much a lock that there are going to be some brush fires in the va/md/pa area tomorrow afternoon. I remember driving to national harbor last Feb during the high wind/fire day. On the way there I could see at least 3 plumes of smoke. On the way home the fire just off of I-95 in Md had traffic royally screwed up so I went home through DC and GW parkway. A tree crashed down on the parkway about 100 yds in front of us. Was driving my suburban so I hopped the curb and navigated around the trees in the median. Cop coming the other way was just about to stop me until he saw the mess and went to check it out. It was an interesting weather day to say the least. Glad I didn't get a ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 I thought you weren't giving this much of a shot based on your comments in the other thread? It probably won't be that exciting up this way... I'm considering chasing this one despite the very low tornado probs. The thing is, up until this morning the GFS and NAM were too fast for much severe, but they've caved to the timing shown on the Euro (surprise surprise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Sweet... winds and fire issues tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Ian's gonna be mad when he misses the EF-5 tomorrow. maybe 95 east does OK.. skeptical since it's feb, plus the trough stays pretty progressive. nam gets dews up near 60 95/east tho and timing might be more optimal out there. i would not anticipate much .. carolinas look ok tho even there the torn threat is probably minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Sweet... winds and fire issues tomorrow. we know how to party in the DC area LWX need to put out a GCW or a FSW up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 If an admin could add general/fire discussion and obs to the title that would be appreciated (on my cell right now)... or I'll just change it later when I get home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Regular garden variety storms would be considered very interesting weather consider how boring it's been for the last 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Some chances for having trashcans blown away once they are dumped tomorrow. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 140 PM EST THU FEB 23 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Sweet i already hired BB to get my cans and lids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Pretty much a lock that there are going to be some brush fires in the va/md/pa area tomorrow afternoon. I remember driving to national harbor last Feb during the high wind/fire day. On the way there I could see at least 3 plumes of smoke. On the way home the fire just off of I-95 in Md had traffic royally screwed up so I went home through DC and GW parkway. A tree crashed down on the parkway about 100 yds in front of us. Was driving my suburban so I hopped the curb and navigated around the trees in the median. Cop coming the other way was just about to stop me until he saw the mess and went to check it out. It was an interesting weather day to say the least. Glad I didn't get a ticket I will never forget that day. The power of wind and fire was impressive. There were big fires in Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, and Baltimore County. There were fire trucks responding from Harford County to calls in Anne Arundel because everyone was so busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I will never forget that day. The power of wind and fire was impressive. There were big fires in Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, and Baltimore County. There were fire trucks responding from Harford County to calls in Anne Arundel because everyone was so busy. Was that the same day the big forest fire happened in Odenton, like 5 miles from where I use to live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Sweet... winds and fire issues tomorrow. -_- I will never forget that day. The power of wind and fire was impressive. There were big fires in Anne Arundel, Prince Georges, and Baltimore County. There were fire trucks responding from Harford County to calls in Anne Arundel because everyone was so busy. Mutual Aid FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 -_- . Hopefully it won't be too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Was that the same day the big forest fire happened in Odenton, like 5 miles from where I use to live? Yes it was. It was the 2nd biggest in Anne Arundel history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 The fires last year were pretty crazy... wouldn't want to have a repeat. Here's some shots from the Germantown fire last year: http://madusweather.com/2011/02/brush-fire-pictures-from-the-germantown-md-area/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 18z nam slows it down a little more.. pretty optimal timing now if right. gets most of the area to 60+ dews and ~1,000 cape. that might be able to make things more interesting i suppose. still skeptical since it's feb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 18z nam slows it down a little more.. pretty optimal timing now if right. gets most of the area to 60+ dews and ~1,000 cape. that might be able to make things more interesting i suppose. still skeptical since it's feb.. To be fair...you would be skeptical if it was May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 18z nam slows it down a little more.. pretty optimal timing now if right. gets most of the area to 60+ dews and ~1,000 cape. that might be able to make things more interesting i suppose. still skeptical since it's feb.. Places near DC are nearing 70 with partly cloudy skies today. Wouldn't surprise me if Tail End Charlie would up dropping some nice winds/hail tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 To be fair...you would be skeptical if it was May mm, maybe. the trough orientation is not perfect but where the 500 low closes off is usually pretty good for svr/torn around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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