baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Short fused storm thread for what will be a rocking plains event tomorrow as the 300 hpa jet continues to get owned by the disturbance amplifying along it. Moved over from the plains disco. Nebraska going to see a classic high wind event with a ripping 70 kt CCB featuring additional enhancement via the venturi effect as the low level cyclone bends back westward. The ageo flow descending directly down from the very active jet streak is going to make this an awesome wind event. GFS suggests a low level theta-e moist tongue wrapping into the cyclone center before ascending directly aloft into the divergent jet core. Going to be a highlight show FGEN band with convective banding features within it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Just a classic setup for extreme snow rates tomorrow across NW Iowa. Models are still in catchup mode to how rapidly this system is intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 rooting for the storm to keep a more northerly track to dump the snow on Brookings, SD and not Sioux Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 rooting for the storm to keep a more northerly track to dump the snow on Brookings, SD and not Sioux Falls. Hey! I didn't even know we had a single member in SD, good to see. As for Brookings...close call, but the heaviest bands will prolly stay S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The warnings and advisories were shifted south. Took me a couple to even realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 rooting for the storm to keep a more northerly track to dump the snow on Brookings, SD and not Sioux Falls. You probably will get some snow as the echos on ABR seem to be moving more e or e/se than se so that should clip you early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yeah Baro's gonna get hammered by winds tomorrow in all likelihood, that 850 mb response to the rapidly strengthening LL cyclogenesis is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yeah Baro's gonna get hammered by winds tomorrow in all likelihood, that 850 mb response to the rapidly strengthening LL cyclogenesis is crazy. Yeah I am pretty excited. 4 KM WRF shows the sick FGEN banding tomorrow afternoon across IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yeah the gfs and nam have me pretty excited tonight. CMC scares me(far enough south I don't get much). An odd switch from the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yeah the gfs and nam have me pretty excited tonight. CMC scares me(far enough south I don't get much). An odd switch from the 12z runs. 0z euro gives FOD 0.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 may have to get in my car and drive a bit to hit the snow but right now the bands are quite a bit further north than the official predictions by the NWS ATM, which call for us and my mother who's 25 miles SW in Rutland not even getting one inch, but it wouldn't take long underneath those bands to hit that. In any case, ready to get in the car. Some of the models maintain the northerly track, the ones that tend to be more accurate... another test to see which are more accurate. Earl Barker's Regional Snowfall Model Page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Wow, Chicago could be awesome tonight. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 906 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0845 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 N CARSON 46.43N 101.56W 02/23/2012 M14.0 INCH GRANT ND PUBLIC PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 817 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0952 AM SNOW SHAMBO RANCH 45.53N 101.83W 02/23/2012 E8.0 INCH CORSON SD PUBLIC 0947 AM SNOW 13 W GETTYSBURG 45.01N 100.22W 02/23/2012 M10.5 INCH POTTER SD CO-OP OBSERVER 0800 AM SNOW SAINT LAWRENCE 44.52N 98.94W 02/23/2012 E6.0 INCH HAND SD PUBLIC STILL SNOWING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Highest wind report today thus far: 67 MPH at Broken Bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 1/4 mile and mod snow reports from NW IA. Any reports from IA posters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Cold rain still in DSM but the NWS updated their graphic again and now DSM is back in the 5-7" band so I'm pleased with Winter just giving us one last gasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 1/4 mile and mod snow reports from NW IA. Any reports from IA posters? On and off moderate snow starting about 4 pm here. Temperatures really cut down on accumulations today, was 35 and mixy until about 3 pm. Perhaps 3 inches of accumulation now. Compared to 48 hours ago I suppose I should be happy but its a far cry from what NWS and several of the models were depicting last night. Beautiful flake size as times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Quick 02Z Smartcast update across the Iowa/Illinois areas. Showing the highest areas of additional snowfall is across the Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Rockford, and Chicago areas with 6-7" of snowfall through 13Z. Snowfall rates up to 1.2" possible 04-07Z across the Iowa areas and 07-10Z across the Illinois region. Across the rest of the regions showing wide area of 4-6 across many locations of Iowa-Wisconsin-Illinois. Full update uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Snow has tapered off to snow showers, about 4-4.5 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Snow has tapered off to snow showers, about 4-4.5 inches on the ground. Overall not bad. Can't complain for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Bellevue, NE got about 1/2inch...the snow stuck to everything like cement...and let me tell you, the drive on I-80 from North Platte to Bellevue today, my poor Corolla was getting was getting tossed around and buffetted by corn stalks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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