West Point, NY Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 What we're dealing with in ENY/NENY is like a six hour band of heavier stuff where the good dynamics should keep the column cold enough for snow and then a tapering to pingers and -RN as it ends. So the rain in their forecasts sounds worse than the reality if 80% of the qpf falls as snow. High temps in ENY tomorrow will be overforecast IMO. Good time of day also as these type of events usually are more progressive than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 For WNY snow, we need that low to slow down it's spin-up and stay south. The GFS continuously bumps it north over KBUF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Well the problem I see here around the CD is that other than the NAM, nothing else seems as dynamic. The energy at 500mb is much more diffuse/weaker on the GFS and Canadian than on the NAM. NAM is a bit of an outlier, and unless the EC jumps on board to support it, I would keep expectations pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 For WNY snow, we need that low to slow down it's spin-up and stay south. The GFS continuously bumps it north over KBUF... the 850 low is not going to cut south of BUF...just won't happen. Most of the heavy snow with a system like this comes in the front end thump courtesy of warm advection. The mid-level flow stays out of the SW so you get very heavy wet snow to lighter drizzle/showers as the dry slot pushes through along with a bit of warm air. If thinks break really well BUF could see like 3-6" in 3-6 hours in the early morning Friday...but more likely 1-3", then it changes over. BUF could see a few inches on the backside as the 700mb low develops . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The EC blows for around here...nothing from the front wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Yeah, it blows for almost everyone. The EC blows for around here...nothing from the front wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 WOW another unexpected event coming for us this weekend. NWS has the entire WNY area under a winter weather advisory and a Lake Effect Snow Watch for storm totals of 7-13 inches from both events. This is ontop of the 4 inch event last night! I still don't believe a foot event came out of no where like this. I will believe it when I see it with this one. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 12Z NAM12 AND REGIONAL GEM HAVE COME TO A CLOSER CONSENSUS AS TO THE PLACEMENT/TIMING/INTENSITY TO A PRECIP BAND PRECEDING THE SURFACE LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW STRONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT…WITHIN A LIKEWISE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THESE SAME LAYERS. DEEP MOISTURE AND A DEEP OMEGA PLUME TO ABOVE 25000FT AND A CO-LOCATED OMEGA MAXIMUM WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL MAXIMIZE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR…AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. COLDER AIR WRAPPING BEHIND THE LOW WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -8C TO -10C RANGE UNDER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S. WHILE THE SURFACE-850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS…THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT WITH A BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE SETUP…WILL GO WITH A BROADBRUSH LES WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF ONTARIO/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WHERE CLIMATOLOGY GENERALLY RULES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM 270 TO 290/300 DEGREES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 WOW another unexpected event coming for us this weekend. NWS has the entire WNY area under a winter weather advisory and a Lake Effect Snow Watch for storm totals of 7-13 inches from both events. This is ontop of the 4 inch event last night! I still don't believe a foot event came out of no where like this. I will believe it when I see it with this one. * TIMING...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ON FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...UP TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. 12Z NAM12 AND REGIONAL GEM HAVE COME TO A CLOSER CONSENSUS AS TO THE PLACEMENT/TIMING/INTENSITY TO A PRECIP BAND PRECEDING THE SURFACE LOW. THESE MODELS SHOW STRONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT…WITHIN A LIKEWISE STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THESE SAME LAYERS. DEEP MOISTURE AND A DEEP OMEGA PLUME TO ABOVE 25000FT AND A CO-LOCATED OMEGA MAXIMUM WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL MAXIMIZE THE SNOW POTENTIAL. EXPECT THIS TO BE IN THE FAIRLY NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY. WILL HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…SOME HEAVIER SNOW WITH RATES MORE THAN AN INCH AN HOUR…AND THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. COLDER AIR WRAPPING BEHIND THE LOW WILL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES FRIDAY EVENING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TOWARDS THE -8C TO -10C RANGE UNDER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S. WHILE THE SURFACE-850MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT EVENTS…THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CERTAINLY CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT WITH A BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION AND CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE SETUP…WILL GO WITH A BROADBRUSH LES WATCH FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF ONTARIO/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WHERE CLIMATOLOGY GENERALLY RULES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE FLOW VEERING FROM 270 TO 290/300 DEGREES Ill believe it when i see it too. Im not expecting more than 6" total between now and Sunday. And that 6" is what will fall now what i expect to be on the ground sunday because with the rain friday and compaction i bet there will be no more than 4" on the ground Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Shows the LES with upstream connection crossing the Niagara Frontier on Saturday. Maybe thats why were under LES Watch. I am going to Holiday on Sunday, CANNOT WAIT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think this is the first storm this season where all the mets I like to read for my area are in agreement (or close). So perhaps we'll finally get a little snow:) I'm leaning most toward the WTEN map... 4-6 for KGLF, 6-10 (closer to 10?) for higher elevations in NW Warren County. I'm curious to see what the final ratios are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 The models seem to be shifting the heavy precip south..The 18z gfs was south of the 12z, the NAM has gone south with the precip 2 runs in a row..The short range models like the ruc/hrrr are also south and so is the sref..The catskills are the place to be with this event, i wouldnt be surprised to see very little from the MV on north and west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 NAM 0z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 The further south the better for WNY (as far as temps are concerned). It's actually colder now than the forecasted lows...31 and dropping under mostly clear skies...could be a nice event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Yeah, way south. Went from about .5" of precip here to...not much at all (NAM). Plenty of updated forecasts while people are sleeping tonight if the other models are in agreement. The models seem to be shifting the heavy precip south..The 18z gfs was south of the 12z, the NAM has gone south with the precip 2 runs in a row..The short range models like the ruc/hrrr are also south and so is the sref..The catskills are the place to be with this event, i wouldnt be surprised to see very little from the MV on north and west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 NAM is awful for the southern dacks after being great 6 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 looks like precip might be a bigger problem then the temps lol Down to 29 imby.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 some surprise snow here in northern vermont this morning, woke up to about 3 inches.....looked great as we have been snowless for the past few weeks. but nooooooooooow......it looks as though i will be trapped by 6 hours in vermont. i was planning to leave for CYOW tomorrow, but the snow may trap me here in vermont, in the AM, and then when it switches to mix/slot, i will be stuck here as it will be snowing in montreal and ottawa. i could be adventurous, we shall see. but im always wary of driving in a storm if i dont have to. would have much preferred to be stationed in ottawa befoe the first flakes....but alas 6 hours too early. at least i should have a nice drive into ottawa on saturday morning with a fresh blanket. could get a nice thump here in northern VT as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 some surprise snow here in northern vermont this morning, woke up to about 3 inches.....looked great as we have been snowless for the past few weeks. but nooooooooooow......it looks as though i will be trapped by 6 hours in vermont. i was planning to leave for CYOW tomorrow, but the snow may trap me here in vermont, in the AM, and then when it switches to mix/slot, i will be stuck here as it will be snowing in montreal and ottawa. i could be adventurous, we shall see. but im always wary of driving in a storm if i dont have to. would have much preferred to be stationed in ottawa befoe the first flakes....but alas 6 hours too early. at least i should have a nice drive into ottawa on saturday morning with a fresh blanket. could get a nice thump here in northern VT as well. I'm hoping for 4" here in Markham/north Toronto. Ottawa should get 6" i would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 some surprise snow here in northern vermont this morning, woke up to about 3 inches.....looked great as we have been snowless for the past few weeks. but nooooooooooow......it looks as though i will be trapped by 6 hours in vermont. i was planning to leave for CYOW tomorrow, but the snow may trap me here in vermont, in the AM, and then when it switches to mix/slot, i will be stuck here as it will be snowing in montreal and ottawa. i could be adventurous, we shall see. but im always wary of driving in a storm if i dont have to. would have much preferred to be stationed in ottawa befoe the first flakes....but alas 6 hours too early. at least i should have a nice drive into ottawa on saturday morning with a fresh blanket. could get a nice thump here in northern VT as well. Driving in snow is my favorite part of a storm. Just grab some snow tires, nothing beats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Driving in snow is my favorite part of a storm. Just grab some snow tires, nothing beats it. This is going to be a big dissappointment for the BUF area unless your in ski country. Id say 2.5" total for BUF through tomorrow at 6pm. Id say another 2" from tomorrow at 6pm untill Sunday at 6am. I think the Jackpot will be from Perrysburg to Ellicottville to Warsaw with 6" through tomorrow at 6pm with another 10" through Sunday at 6am from lake effect. i'll go with 4.5" from now through Sunday morning for BUF and a max of 16" in Perrysburg for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Driving in snow is my favorite part of a storm. Just grab some snow tires, nothing beats it. you are right....but its a 3 hour drive. the 417 between montreal and ottawa can be pretty bad in snow.....but i might do it.....it would be fun, and i did put snow tires on my cavalier before i moved to VT, because i was worried about the elevation here. so far i havent had to worry about much lol. aww damn buffaloweather, now you got me thinking lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 This is going to be a big dissappointment for the BUF area unless your in ski country. Id say 2.5" total for BUF through tomorrow at 6pm. Id say another 2" from tomorrow at 6pm untill Sunday at 6am. I think the Jackpot will be from Perrysburg to Ellicottville to Warsaw with 6" through tomorrow at 6pm with another 10" through Sunday at 6am from lake effect. i'll go with 4.5" from now through Sunday morning for BUF and a max of 16" in Perrysburg for the same time period. Fine with me Holiday on Sunday. Perfec timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Fine with me Holiday on Sunday. Perfec timing. They may be jackpot winners too. Could see them approaching a foot and a half by sunday. What sucks is theyre gonna lose alot of it when its 45 degrees with a high sun angle on Monday, but hey if your going Sunday it should definitly be the best conditions of the whole season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 They may be jackpot winners too. Could see them approaching a foot and a half by sunday. What sucks is theyre gonna lose alot of it when its 45 degrees with a high sun angle on Monday, but hey if your going Sunday it should definitly be the best conditions of the whole season so far. Yea I agree. Ive gone a few Sundays so far but this one looks to be the best. There have been a total of 3-4 solid days this year with pristine ski conditions. Unheard of in any given winter. Last year I could go every day all winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Zip, Zero, Nothing at all here near Rome this morning. Looks like the bulk of the precip slid to our south. Bring on Spring. I'm tired of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Big difference in forecasts from 12 hours ago! WTEN calling for less than an inch... NWS ALB still calling for 3-8"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Another wet morning here in Ithaca to continue this horrible winter; any trace of snow is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Zip, Zero, Nothing at all here near Rome this morning. Looks like the bulk of the precip slid to our south. Bring on Spring. I'm tired of this. We were projected for around 3-6 inches we received all rain. The boundary layer temperatures were marginal for this "event". I believe the Buffalo NWS was worried about another bust like happened 2 nights ago where nearly 4 inches fell over most of the viewing area. The boundary layer was dry and evaporational cooling allowed a heavy wet snow to fall, not this time....rain rain rain! Hoping for a bit of snow tonight into tomorrow however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Did see a report of 6" in Delaware County NEW YORK ...BROOME COUNTY... BINGHAMTON 1.9 700 AM 2/24 NWS OFFICE ...DELAWARE COUNTY... LORDVILLE 6.0 724 AM 2/24 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 screw this winter. that's all I'm going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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