wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Ok lets try this again , maybe this thread will turn out a little better then the last thread i made 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 The GFS is more amplified and west, hence the warmer temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 12z euro (wunderground shows 2-5" for the local area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'll add the 12z jma lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Or combine with the existing thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 That thread was for the possibility of a major wind event for fri night/sat..This is for the potential winterstorm tomorrow night into friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 NAM snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 21z Sref show a pretty nice 3 hrs early fri AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Gfs came in a little colder but not as cold as the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 If I have the time, I'll throw in the Korean model (KMA?) for S&G's. I think it actually had a coup on a storm last year or the year before. At least its something for some of us to track. I'm hoping for at least a little front end snow for Friday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 NAM holds strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm thinking it could be comparable to that January 12th event in the CD where I got 5.5 inches. Maybe I don't get that much, but generally speaking a similar event. This time it looks like central NY starts as better snow than that time. Advisory level could be attained. NAM holds strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 KBGM I FOLLOWED A COMPROMISESOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO P-TYPE AS THE VERY STRONG LIFT AND HENCE DYNAMIC COOLING MAY KEEP THE COLUMN COOLER THAN THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST. DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ATTM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRN CWA WHERE SNOW ACCUMS COULD APPROACH FOUR INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Nws not very optimistic, forecasting a change over to rain in all areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 6" seems a good bet at your place near Lake George. Nws not very optimistic, forecasting a change over to rain in all areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 About 3 inches overnight here in the Jay area. Heading to the ADK Loj for a day hike in the high peaks area. Guessing well over 6 inches in higher terrain since yesterday. Might need the snowshoes after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 6" seems a good bet at your place near Lake George. Northern dacks were bombed last night, 10 inches at whiteface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 6" seems a good bet at your place near Lake George. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 http://www.whiteface.com/mountain/cams.php looks like a great day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The southern end ....last bands came through here around 6-8 am and fell as snow showers with a coating and a temperature of 33. Northern dacks were bombed last night, 10 inches at whiteface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 The southern end ....last bands came through here around 6-8 am and fell as snow showers with a coating and a temperature of 33. I think I saw a snowflake. Tonight could be interesting up your way if the NAM has its way. BUFKIT says almost 0.6" QPF for ALB falls as snow. We'll be screwed by BL temps here in valley as usual...but you may be able to pull off an advisory snowfall if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 That was one where I also managed 5 inches while ALB got 2-3. "Heaviest" snowfall of the season so far. In many winters, this would be one where I'd hang my hat on overperforming in our area...this year I'll be happy with a little slop on the front end. Edit: "Overperforming" in the sense if we had a normal cold airmass for mid-late February. I'm thinking it could be comparable to that January 12th event in the CD where I got 5.5 inches. Maybe I don't get that much, but generally speaking a similar event. This time it looks like central NY starts as better snow than that time. Advisory level could be attained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Nws not very optimistic, forecasting a change over to rain in all areas lol. It's gotten so bad you troll Upstate NY now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm still fairly comfortable in my accumulation forecast. The 06z NAM was a total weenie run...but the 12z NAM and 06z GFS are still decent for the Niagara Frontier...a few inches of snow before changover to run in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 lol. It's gotten so bad you troll Upstate NY now? nope just what the text says: MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST CONCERNING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM MOVES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING... COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AT THE MID LEVELS AND PCPN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. BY THAT TIME STEADY PCPN WILL HAVE ENDED WITH THE PCPN BECOMING SHOWERY IN NATURE AS A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. I disagree, I dont see any rain in the 'dacks, they look good for a general 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 It's cold enough though..the snow showers this morning stuck right away, albeit minor. 35 and ovc here now....talk of 50 today in the HV seems very distant from here. That was one where I also managed 5 inches while ALB got 2-3. "Heaviest" snowfall of the season so far. In many winters, this would be one where I'd hang my hat on overperforming in our area...this year I'll be happy with a little slop on the front end. Edit: "Overperforming" in the sense if we had a normal cold airmass for mid-late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 What we're dealing with in ENY/NENY is like a six hour band of heavier stuff where the good dynamics should keep the column cold enough for snow and then a tapering to pingers and -RN as it ends. So the rain in their forecasts sounds worse than the reality if 80% of the qpf falls as snow. High temps in ENY tomorrow will be overforecast IMO. nope just what the text says: MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST CONCERNING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF THE ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CATEGORICAL POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN POPS DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW OR SLEET THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN A TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN IN ALL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE STORM MOVES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING... COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AT THE MID LEVELS AND PCPN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. BY THAT TIME STEADY PCPN WILL HAVE ENDED WITH THE PCPN BECOMING SHOWERY IN NATURE AS A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. I disagree, I dont see any rain in the 'dacks, they look good for a general 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 True....and while it is already 43 or so at KALB, the dew is 28.... It's cold enough though..the snow showers this morning stuck right away, albeit minor. 35 and ovc here now....talk of 50 today in the HV seems very distant from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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