PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Louisville is standing at 67 T, 47 Td, 49% RH with a SE wind at 15 G 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I don't think the eventual squall line was ever really in doubt. It was the initial storms that posed a larger threat. Even so, there will be a strong boundary present, and squall line spins ups will be possible. There was no doubt in my mind that a squall line was inevitable as the cold front swings around...I just initially hedged that cells might have been able to be discreet further east (I was only going to go as far west as Louisville). Squall line spinups will be almost certain with the shear/helicity, but I don't chase squall line spin ups. I just watch those at home on GrLevel3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 68 T, 49 Td, 51% RH at Louisville now... low-level moisture is really advecting now 69 T, 53 Td, 56% RH at Fort Knox. Newest SPC outlook is still very questionable considering what is going on. Not sure what their thoughts are behind what they've put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 71/57 at Paducah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 71/57 at Paducah Good chance temps across portions of Southern and Southeastern Indiana and Southwestern Ohio continue to rise even after the diurnal peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 232021Z - 232145Z CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASING THREAT. SFC WARM FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW NWD RETREAT AS IT LIFTS ACROSS SRN IND/IL...WWD INTO A WELL DEFINED SFC LOW ALONG I-70 OVER CNTRL MO. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS A RAPIDLY EXPANDING SHIELD OF LOW-MID CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS SRN IL/SWRN IND INTO WRN KY. THIS CERTAINLY REFLECTS THE MOISTENING/ASCENT PROCESS THAT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY...MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG...HAS OVERSPREAD WRN KY. IF THIS AIRMASS CAN ADVECT INTO THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THEN AN ENHANCED RISK OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...COULD EVOLVE. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DOES NOT CURRENTLY SUGGEST INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS HAVE DEEPENED APPRECIABLY BUT CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD ENCOURAGE STRONGER UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH. ..DARROW.. 02/23/2012 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 I'm liking the EVV-SDF-CVG corridor right now for the best chance of severe storms. Threat for a more organized QLCS later this evening increases as you get east of SDF and go into E KY and S OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 LMK is showing a bust for SDF and points westward atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 There is a discrete storm to the west of Frankfort KY. It popped up quickly compared to the other storms to the south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Beginning to detect a circulation in the Frankfort storm as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 There is a discrete storm to the west of Frankfort KY. It popped up quickly compared to the other storms to the south of it. That storm looks like it might still be slightly elevated right now, but it's close. Wouldn't take much to root in the boundary layer. Still a ways to go before a severe hail threat though (about 7 kft). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nice little left split off that storm. Would have been nice to have some dual-pol to see if it picked up on the two updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like a little more concentrated, rapid development on a line from SDF to FTK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nice updraft just south of KLVX, but it's in a tough position. Partially in the cone of silence, and right on the zero isodop so it's hard to tell rotation. Some suggestion there is a weak meso in there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Im in Frankfort. Its pretty quiet right now. Like a light shower really. But the lightning has been pretty spectacular when it strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Nice updraft just south of KLVX, but it's in a tough position. Partially in the cone of silence, and right on the zero isodop so it's hard to tell rotation. Some suggestion there is a weak meso in there though. This storm does have an interesting reflectivity signature. I am not too concerned about a lot of overall severe weather in this region, but more so about a random storm splitting or merging and turning into a quick tornado like last night in Rome Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Even if the storm between Elizabethtown and Louisville is not severe, it is still a dangerous one to be anywhere outdoors in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Even if the storm between Elizabethtown and Louisville is not severe, it is still a dangerous one to be anywhere outdoors in. It's getting close. Very nice reflectivity core suspended aloft right now. 70 dBZ up to 16kft and 50 dBZ over 20 kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Interesting that their warning made no mention of winds. I guess their thinking must be that this one is also elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Mid level meso strengthening, WER showing up now at 3.1 and 4.0 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Interesting that their warning made no mention of winds. I guess their thinking must be that this one is also elevated. Also interesting is that there was no mention of "radar has indicated some weak rotation" as an action statement. It seemed to be an important one in case something formed within a couple of minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Also interesting is that there was no mention of "radar has indicated some weak rotation" as an action statement. It seemed to be an important one in case something formed within a couple of minutes. I think these warned storms are just too far into the cold air. The cells trying to develop around Taylor and Green Counties have a little better shot to have a circulation that affects the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 I think these warned storms are just too far into the cold air. The cells trying to develop around Taylor and Green Counties have a little better shot to have a circulation that affects the surface. Assuming a report of 1-inch hail is not forthcoming, would this have been a case where having access to a dual-polarization radar could have been able to prevent a false alarm? I know it is supposed to help distinguish between regular hail and melting hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Assuming a report of 1-inch hail is not forthcoming, would this have been a case where having access to a dual-polarization radar could have been able to prevent a false alarm? I know it is supposed to help distinguish between regular hail and melting hail. It's possible. There is still no explicit radar signature to hail size indicator with dual-pol, but it will lead to greater confidence of large hail (> 2"). There were reports of lots of dime size hail, so it is possible this would have looked similar to quarter size hail even with dual-pol. I think FAR improvement will be most noticeable with lots of pea size hail and rain versus quarter size hail. Melting hail or hail mixed with rain gives a different signal with dual-pol, as wet hail is the most powerful reflector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 It's possible. There is still no explicit radar signature to hail size indicator with dual-pol, but it will lead to greater confidence of large hail (> 2"). There were reports of lots of dime size hail, so it is possible this would have looked similar to quarter size hail even with dual-pol. I think FAR improvement will be most noticeable with lots of pea size hail and rain versus quarter size hail. Melting hail or hail mixed with rain gives a different signal with dual-pol, as wet hail is the most powerful reflector. Thanks for the response. As far as this storm goes, I believe they made the correct decision to warn for it. Dime size hail covering the ground is still very hazardous, especially for individuals driving on a busy roadway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLAND...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SCIOTO...SOUTHERN ROSS...WESTERN PIKE AND NORTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES... AT 1007 PM EST...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SINKING SPRING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KINCAID SPRINGS...PIKE LAKE...BAINBRIDGE...PIKETON AND WAVERLY. IN ADDITION...POPLAR GROVE...ELM GROVE...IDAHO...BUCHANAN... SUMMITHILL...KNOCKEMSTIFF AND LAKE WHITE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM. I couldn't resist there... Knockemstiff? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Looks like the forcing finally kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Cells rapidly organizing between LVX and OHX. Edit: Cell west of Bowling Green went svr warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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