2012 ENSO Thread

[GaWx]

If the following link is accurate, western 3.4 may be cooling a fair bit. Something to monitor. To get a weak Nino, any sig. recooling could mean the end for its chances.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

[GaWx]

The NOAA Oct. PDO rose quite a bit vs. Sep. as expected (from -2.75 to -1.18):

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

With this being -1.18, the U of Wash. version may come in above -1.

Edit: This rise of 1.57 is the 3rd largest Oct. rise since 1854 in the NOAA table.

[GaWx]

The latest 5 day averaged Nino 3.4 came in quite a bit cooler than yesterday's map in the eastern half. If this were to keep up for too long, that would significantly reduce the chance for a weak Nino. I most recently gave it a 40% chance.

My final prediction for tomorrow's weekly 3.4 release is for either +0.6 or +0.7. Last week was +0.5.

[wxmx]

The latest 5 day averaged Nino 3.4 came in quite a bit cooler than yesterday's map in the eastern half. If this were to keep up for too long, that would significantly reduce the chance for a weak Nino. I most recently gave it a 40% chance.

My final prediction for tomorrow's weekly 3.4 release is for either +0.6 or +0.7. Last week was +0.5.

Easterlies have been strengthening, and will enhance further in the short term, especially the the western half:

...and in the medium range it looks like easterly anomalies will outduel any westerly anomalies for the next 3 weeks.

[BlizzardWx]

On the one hand I feel pretty confident this is going to be a neutral year, which I am fine with. On the other hand though, for the couple of tenths of a degree celsius it might vary I think people are worrying too much about it. It probably won't make a big difference. I don't see any huge ENSO changes for the next few months.

[GaWx]

The latest 5 day averaged Nino 3.4 came in quite a bit cooler than yesterday's map in the eastern half. If this were to keep up for too long, that would significantly reduce the chance for a weak Nino. I most recently gave it a 40% chance.

My final prediction for tomorrow's weekly 3.4 release is for either +0.6 or +0.7. Last week was +0.5.

Folks,

Today's just released weekly has 3.4 down to +0.4 from last week's +0.5. Apparently, that sig. cooler map of yesterday is a sign of cooling trends. This is definitely hurting the chance for a weak Nino. Today, I've decided to reduce the chance from 40% to 35%. If this cooling were to continue for several more days, that chance will fall more.

[uncle W]

Folks,

Today's just released weekly has 3.4 down to +0.4 from last week's +0.5. Apparently, that sig. cooler map of yesterday is a sign of cooling trends. This is definitely hurting the chance for a weak Nino. Today, I've decided to reduce the chance from 40% to 35%. If this cooling were to continue for several more days, that chance will fall more.

latest oni reading is +0.4...Up from +0.3 over the last tri monthly reading...

[GaWx]

latest oni reading is +0.4...Up from +0.3 over the last tri monthly reading...

The average of the weeklies for ASO is +0.5. That makes the third ONI based on weeklies of ~+0.5.

Nov. needs to come in averaging at least +0.7 in the weeklies to allow for SON to be +0.5+. With this drop to +0.4, that makes it quite the challenge.

[Isotherm]

Whether we're at +0.4c or +0.5c this winter isn't going to make a difference in terms of the overall pattern IMO. Other forcing mechanisms like the GLAAM are still in a relatively Nina-ish state, and I doubt we'll see a temp profile resembling a typical Nino signature this winter. A couple months ago I was thinking maybe if we surged up to +0.8c or +0.9c, higher weak end, we could perturb the regime a bit, but for all intents and purposes, this winter is looking darn near neutral ENSO wise.

[GaWx]

Today's 5 day averaged 3.4 SST anom. map came in sig. cooler than yesterday's map. This is definitely not a good map to see if you want to see sig. warming resume in 3.4 soon. If next Monday's weekly comes in cooler than today's +0.4, Dandy Don may quickly start tuning up for his famous song with regard to a shot at a Nino considering that the Nov. weeklies would need to average at least +0.7. If, say, it cools to +0.3, the subsequent three weeks would need to avg. +0.8+ to allow SON to be +0.5+.

[Harry]

Today's 5 day averaged 3.4 SST anom. map came in sig. cooler than yesterday's map. This is definitely not a good map to see if you want to see sig. warming resume in 3.4 soon. If next Monday's weekly comes in cooler than today's +0.4, Dandy Don may quickly start tuning up for his famous song with regard to a shot at a Nino considering that the Nov. weeklies would need to average at least +0.7. If, say, it cools to +0.3, the subsequent three weeks would need to avg. +0.8+ to allow SON to be +0.5+.

Something is off and what it is i am not sure of? The data i use ( stormvista ) has shown all to be holding steady at around +0.5/+0.6 or so since Oct 26th when there was a brief dip down to +0.4 on the daily stuff.

[GaWx]

Something is off and what it is i am not sure of? The data i use ( stormvista ) has shown all to be holding steady at around +0.5/+0.6 or so since Oct 26th when there was a brief dip down to +0.4 on the daily stuff.

Harry,

I don't know about stormvista, but I do know that the TAO 5 day averaged map cooled off significantly again in today's release. Based on this, I'm now dropping the % chance for a Nino to 30% from 35% yesterday and 40% late last week/over the weekend. More drops would occur if subsequent maps continue this cooling trend.

[tacoman25]

Whether we're at +0.4c or +0.5c this winter isn't going to make a difference in terms of the overall pattern IMO. Other forcing mechanisms like the GLAAM are still in a relatively Nina-ish state, and I doubt we'll see a temp profile resembling a typical Nino signature this winter. A couple months ago I was thinking maybe if we surged up to +0.8c or +0.9c, higher weak end, we could perturb the regime a bit, but for all intents and purposes, this winter is looking darn near neutral ENSO wise.

Agreed. We will likely see a significantly -PDO this winter, despite the recent rise (which often happens in the fall after a highly -PDO summer). If we can combine that with a -AO/-NAO this winter, which some signals point to and weak ENSO should definitely allow for greater blocking than last winter, could be in for an interesting winter for much of the country.

[GaWx]

Harry,

I don't know about stormvista, but I do know that the TAO 5 day averaged map cooled off significantly again in today's release. Based on this, I'm now dropping the % chance for a Nino to 30% from 35% yesterday and 40% late last week/over the weekend. More drops would occur if subsequent maps continue this cooling trend.

Nino 3.4 continues to cool more in the five day averaged TAO maps. As a result, I'm now dropping the % chance for a Nino to 25% from 30% a couple of days ago and 40% late last week/over the weekend. The % chances are changing quickly because we're now in the "last chance" period.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Nino 3.4 continues to cool more in the five day averaged TAO maps. As a result, I'm now dropping the % chance for a Nino to 25% from 30% a couple of days ago and 40% late last week/over the weekend. The % chances are changing quickly because we're now in the "last chance" period.

The current cooling in the East Pacific is timed well with intraseasonal tropical convective variability. Currently, low-level easterly wind stress on the ocean is causing upwelling in the East Pacific, which will cool the SSTs at the surface.

On contrary, below the surface shows warming! There is a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave at approximately 160W, propagating to the east and is bringing warmer waters with it (subsurface). In the animated fig below, you can see the warming in the subsurface that progresses eastward with time in the anomalies, and the deepening of the thermocline in the East Pacific in the totals.

In agreement with others on this site, I do not think we will see a typical El-Nino type signature over N. America this winter, but I still think there is potential for anomalous warm SSTs in the East Pac as low-level westerly wind anomalies return over the central-east Pacific in approximately 2 weeks.

[WXeastern]

[GaWx]

Folks,

Based on TAO 5 day averaged maps, I'm expecting no warming and quite likely some cooling in tomorrow's weekly 3.4 SST anom. release vs. last week's +0.4. With that the chance of getting a Nino is rapidly falling and Dr. McCoy is getting very close to pronouncing it dead. Also, Dandy Don has been doing a lot of warming up at the mic. I'm now reducing the chance from 25% to 15%. I had it at 40% just over a week ago before this cooling commenced. Rapid changes are occurring in the % chances because we're now in a very crucial period. If no rewarming commences quickly, I'm likely to drop the chances to very close to 0% and trot out the good doctor, myself, as early as next week. Stay tuned.

[GaWx]

Folks,

Based on TAO 5 day averaged maps, I'm expecting no warming and quite likely some cooling in tomorrow's weekly 3.4 SST anom. release vs. last week's +0.4. With that the chance of getting a Nino is rapidly falling and Dr. McCoy is getting very close to pronouncing it dead. Also, Dandy Don has been doing a lot of warming up at the mic. I'm now reducing the chance from 25% to 15%. I had it at 40% just over a week ago before this cooling commenced. Rapid changes are occurring in the % chances because we're now in a very crucial period. If no rewarming commences quickly, I'm likely to drop the chances to very close to 0% and trot out the good doctor, myself, as early as next week. Stay tuned.

Folks,

Nino 3.4 came in at +0.4, the same as last week. Though the recent cooling has largely ceased, the 5 day TAO maps are still not suggesting sig. rewarming. We'll see if this changes soon. In the meantime, because the weekly didn't drop (I was leaning to it dropping) and because the daily loop actually suggests some rewarming in western 3.4, I'm leaving the Nino chance at 15% for at least another day. However, let's not kid ourselves...this Nino's chances are hanging by a thread and they could easily be down to only a little above 0% by as early as next week. Consider the weeklies: the next three would need to average over +0.7 in order to raise the SON weekly average to +0.5 (rounded) and keep the trimonthly +0.5+ streak (based on weeklies) going. If next week were to come in at, say, +0.4, then the subsequent two weeks would need to average at least +0.9, which would be an extremely tough challenge, especially considering that there is still no strong -SOI streak in sight. OTOH, if a warming trend were to suddenly resume this week and were to raise 3.4 to, say, +0.6, then only an average of +0.8 would be needed for the subsequent two weeks.

So, in summary, Nino 3.4 will need to warm this week or else it would be just about curtains for El Nino.

[Harry]

Folks,

Nino 3.4 came in at +0.4, the same as last week. Though the recent cooling has largely ceased, the 5 day TAO maps are still not suggesting sig. rewarming. We'll see if this changes soon. In the meantime, because the weekly didn't drop (I was leaning to it dropping) and because the daily loop actually suggests some rewarming in western 3.4, I'm leaving the Nino chance at 15% for at least another day. However, let's not kid ourselves...this Nino's chances are hanging by a thread and they could easily be down to only a little above 0% by as early as next week. Consider the weeklies: the next three would need to average over +0.7 in order to raise the SON weekly average to +0.5 (rounded) and keep the trimonthly +0.5+ streak (based on weeklies) going. If next week were to come in at, say, +0.4, then the subsequent two weeks would need to average at least +0.9, which would be an extremely tough challenge, especially considering that there is still no strong -SOI streak in sight. OTOH, if a warming trend were to suddenly resume this week and were to raise 3.4 to, say, +0.6, then only an average of +0.8 would be needed for the subsequent two weeks.

So, in summary, Nino 3.4 will need to warm this week or else it would be just about curtains for El Nino.

Per vista 3.4 has seen some decent warming over the past few days from about +0.3 to +0.9 and still headed up. Same with region 4 which is also at about +0.9...

[GaWx]

Per vista 3.4 has seen some decent warming over the past few days from about +0.3 to +0.9 and still headed up. Same with region 4 which is also at about +0.9...

Harry,

Thanks for the info. I appreciate your posting it.

IF Stormvista is accurate in 3.4, we obviously would have a totally new ballgame...the weak Nino would be live and well and I'd be upping the chance for a Nino to at least ~50%. However, TAO is way cooler and it still is not warming back up. Do you know how accurate is Vista?

[Harry]

Harry,

Thanks for the info. I appreciate your posting it.

IF Stormvista is accurate in 3.4, we obviously would have a totally new ballgame...the weak Nino would be live and well and I'd be upping the chance for a Nino to at least ~50%. However, TAO is way cooler and it still is not warming back up. Do you know how accurate is Vista?

It is usually not that far off. I'll try and update everyday so we can keep track of it.

[Wannabehippie]

Folks,

Based on TAO 5 day averaged maps, I'm expecting no warming and quite likely some cooling in tomorrow's weekly 3.4 SST anom. release vs. last week's +0.4. With that the chance of getting a Nino is rapidly falling and Dr. McCoy is getting very close to pronouncing it dead. Also, Dandy Don has been doing a lot of warming up at the mic. I'm now reducing the chance from 25% to 15%. I had it at 40% just over a week ago before this cooling commenced. Rapid changes are occurring in the % chances because we're now in a very crucial period. If no rewarming commences quickly, I'm likely to drop the chances to very close to 0% and trot out the good doctor, myself, as early as next week. Stay tuned.

"turn out the lights, the party's over...."

[GaWx]

"turn out the lights, the party's over...."

I'm personally not quite ready for Dandy Don, but I can't blame you for going ahead and trotting him out since TAO has yet to rewarm. The one thing that's really bothering me is the sig. warming indicated by Stormvista as well as the daily movie loop, which suggests that the warmest day of the last 14 in 3.4 was actually the last in the loop (11/12) with strong warming from 140W to 160W:

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

Keep in mind that should 3.4 really warm up this week, it would likely keep chances from my perspective from falling further at least for a little while until things sort there way out in one direction or the other.

[wxmx]

An oceanic KW just went thru the Pacific, plus a CCKW, both helped ENSO 3.4 and 4 to warm. Their effects are almost over the W Pac, and the cooling/supressed phase of the wave will start soon (a couple of days maybe). That, plus medium range forecasts of mostly easterly low level wind anomalies will be the nail in the coffin of any Niño talk for this winter. In about a week there probably won't be any talk of any Niño emerging. Neutral has now >95% of chances of verifying, IMO, for NDJFM.

[Harry]

I'm personally not quite ready for Dandy Don, but I can't blame you for going ahead and trotting him out since TAO has yet to rewarm. The one thing that's really bothering me is the sig. warming indicated by Stormvista as well as the daily movie loop, which suggests that the warmest day of the last 14 in 3.4 was actually the last in the loop (11/12) with strong warming from 140W to 160W:

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

Keep in mind that should 3.4 really warm up this week, it would likely keep chances from my perspective from falling further at least for a little while until things sort there way out in one direction or the other.

Per vista 3.4 and 4 just broke past the +1.0 mark..

Probably wishful thinking but i would love to see it make a run at +1.4 or so and then drop off.

[GaWx]

Per vista 3.4 and 4 just broke past the +1.0 mark..

Probably wishful thinking but i would love to see it make a run at +1.4 or so and then drop off.

Harry,

Does SV literally put out Nino numbers in textual form and every day? Do you know how they are derived? I do know that the latest daily map (11/12) from the SST anom. loop I monitor is at the warmest in both 3.4 and 4 of the last two weeks of maps and by a decent margin.

OTOH SV is so much warmer than TAO would suggest. Then again and interestingly, TAO suddenly warmed a tremendous amount in the SE quadrant of 3.4. Some spots suddenly warmed 0.6 C just since yesterday's 5 day averaged maps! Either it actually warmed that much or there's something wrong with the maps/buoys in the vicinity. The SST's between the buoys are roughly estimated via interpolation.

wxmx, thanks for your thoughts. SOIwise, there's STILL no solidly -SOI streak in sight per the Euro.

[Harry]

Harry,

Does SV literally put out Nino numbers in textual form and every day? Do you know how they are derived? I do know that the daily SST anom. loop I monitor is at the warmest in both 3.4 and 4 of the last two weeks of maps and by a decent margin.

OTOH SV is so much warmer than TAO would suggest. Then again and interestingly, TAO suddenly warmed a tremendous amount in the SE quadrant of 3.4. Some spots suddenly warmed 0.6 C just since yesterday's 5 day averaged maps! Either it actually warmed that much or there's something wrong with the maps/buoys in the vicinity. The SST's between the buoys are roughly estimated via interpolation.

wxmx, thanks for your thoughts. SOIwise, there's STILL no solidly -SOI streak in sight per the Euro.

It is a graph. The lines for 3.4 and 4 as of today has gone up just a nudge above +1.0.. Updated daily. I'll ask as alot of stuff was updated earlier in the year.

[wxmx]

I think Vista's graphs are based on AVHRR OISST, which I think the weeklies also makes use of. Couple of images that show the strong warming this past week, especially around 160W:

[Harry]

I think Vista's graphs are based on AVHRR OISST, which I think the weeklies also makes use of. Couple of images that show the strong warming this past week, especially around 160W:

That ( the latest ) looks identical to the latest Vista SSTA maps.

[GaWx]

I think Vista's graphs are based on AVHRR OISST, which I think the weeklies also makes use of. Couple of images that show the strong warming this past week, especially around 160W:

From my perspective, the whole Nino vs. no Nino ballgame may have just taken a HUGE turn. Here's why:

1) This map looks similar to the maps in here:

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

So, I'm now assuming that this loop is based on OISST data. I didn't know that before now. This loop is the one about which I've been commenting being so much warmer in western 3.4 for the last couple of days. I didn't know it was OISST based. I've been using TAO maps as my main maps to analyze. Perhaps that isn't advisable to do anymore...at least for now.

2) Yes, I can confirm that the weeklies use OISST data per someone at NOAA to whom I talked recently.

3) Each Monday's Nino SST anom. releases are based on the average for the prior calendar week. There is no question that the avg. of 11/11-11/13, Sun-Tue of this week, is significantly warmer than 11/4-10 when looking at the OISST loop. Therefore, barring any unexpected sharp cooling for the balance of this week, next Monday's Nino 3.4 will be warmer than last week's +0.4 and may be significantly warmer. As a result. I'm now raising the chance for a weak Nino back up from ~15% to ~25%. IF next Monday's number comes in as sharply warmer as the last three OISST maps suggest could occur, I'll be raising the chance quite a bit above 25%...perhaps already closing in on 50%.

Harry,

Would it be possible for you to list your estimate of what SV has for 11/4-13 day by day for Nino 3.4? Thanks in advance.