2012 ENSO Thread

[uncle W]

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Regarding the JMA's +0.9 and your interesting table, this means that the 2012's AMJJA # of +0.9 has been matched or exceeded only by the listed seven Ninos that all peaked at strong ONIwise. Also, looking back at the eight oncoming Ninos of 1877-1930 that had +0.9+ for AMJJA, all eight went on to peak at strong in 3.4. So, in summary, there have been 15 times during 1877-2009 when the JMA's AMJJA reached or exceeded +0.9 during an oncoming Nino. All 15 ended up peaking as strong in 3.4!

By the way, I'm still going with a weak fall/winter ONI (corrected) peak for 2012-13 and am saying near zero chance for a high end moderate or strong peak.

the other years...

1896.....9.....18

1918.....9.....14

1930.....9.....19

the only good winter for 9+ jma now would be 1896-97...1918-19 and 1930-31 were horrible winters up here...1991 and 1965 were not that good either...1918-19 looks like a good jma fit but that winter was sandwich between two great winters...

[GaWx]

I just got an email from the "Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence" in Australia (their workweek just began) stating that they see that there is an issue with the SOI data and that they are investigating. They also said they will let me know when the issue is resolved, and they thanked me for alerting them. Very classy.

They fixed the 9/20/12 SOI by increasing the Darwin 9/20 SLP from 1009.10 to 1011.80, which is about the fix I expected..so it looks good to me. This lowered the 9/20 SOI from +21.22 to +5.17. No other day needed to be changed:

http://www.longpaddo...30daysoivalues/

The cause of the error was the 9 AM Darwin SLP being missing:

"The real-time 9am Darwin MSLP was missing on the 20th and the substitute value used within the script, generated a MSLP value that was too low to reflect the synoptic conditions that day."

The corrected value was substituted. Also, to try to prevent future errors like this one, a new flag was added within the script to indicate a large departure from the adjacent MSLP values. I'm trying to find out more about what exact hours are averaged for SLP's and if there are any adjustment factors.

[GaWx]

Per the following link, Nino 3.4 warmed back up even further today. So two days of warming. I'm expecting next Mon's weekly 3.4 SST anom. release to be warmer than the prior +0.3. We'll see.

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

I was wrong. Instead of warming, Nino 3.4 cooled from +0.3 to +0.2. Regardless, there's still plenty of time for it to rewarm into weak Nino territory based on 1991's and 1994's patterns. Also, the ONI's could still easily remain at +0.5+ even with the recent drops. Actually, the JAS ONI, based on the weeklies, should be +0.5. The actual recent ONI's have been out of whack with the weeklies per telecons with NOAA. They've recently been ignoring them.

[SVT450R]

I was wrong. Instead of warming, Nino 3.4 cooled from +0.3 to +0.2. Regardless, there's still plenty of time for it to rewarm into weak Nino territory based on 1991's and 1994's patterns. Also, the ONI's could still easily remain at +0.5+ even with the recent drops. Actually, the JAS ONI, based on the weeklies, should be +0.5. The actual recent ONI's have been out of whack with the weeklies per telecons with NOAA. They've recently been ignoring them.

I appreciate the continued updates.

[tacoman25]

I was wrong. Instead of warming, Nino 3.4 cooled from +0.3 to +0.2. Regardless, there's still plenty of time for it to rewarm into weak Nino territory based on 1991's and 1994's patterns. Also, the ONI's could still easily remain at +0.5+ even with the recent drops. Actually, the JAS ONI, based on the weeklies, should be +0.5. The actual recent ONI's have been out of whack with the weeklies per telecons with NOAA. They've recently been ignoring them.

What has the CFS been showing lately?

[wxmx]

What has the CFS been showing lately?

This is the latest Ensemble...first one that shows that we have already peaked. (Time sensitive)

[GaWx]

Today's SOI of -21.15 is the lowest since mid August. However, it looks to also be the lowest of the next ten days at least as it is projected to rise tomorrow and not come back to this low a level at least through 10/12.

[uncle W]

JAS oni comes in at +0.3...Where do we go from here?...

[GaWx]

JAS oni comes in at +0.3...Where do we go from here?...

We ignore the ONI table (as NOAA told me they were doing)...that's where we go lol. The weeklies averaged +0.6 rounded. So, for the 3rd straight trimonth, the table has a much cooler number than what the weeklies suggest. JJA averaged +0.5 per the weeklies. However, it was only +0.1 in this table. Granted, the ONI table uses different SST data than is used by the weeklies. However, that is much further off than normal.

[ORH_wxman]

We ignore the ONI table (as NOAA told me they were doing)...that's where we go lol. The weeklies averaged +0.6 rounded. So, for the 3rd straight trimonth, the table has a much cooler number than what the weeklies suggest. JJA averaged +0.5 per the weeklies. However, it was only +0.1 in this table. Granted, the ONI table uses different SST data than is used by the weeklies. However, that is much further off than normal.

Yeah there is clearly some erroneous data in there on the ONI table...that SST dataset must be off for some reason since about early summer.

You could expect two datasets to be slightly off, but if both are considered viable, you would never see that much of a discrepency.

[WxMidwest]

ONI is bad now anyway, they have that running year average BS to account for "Warming"... I don't think it defines ENSO in black and white terms anymore...

[GaWx]

ONI is bad now anyway, they have that running year average BS to account for "Warming"... I don't think it defines ENSO in black and white terms anymore...

I still use the old table for past ENSO events:

http://www.cpc.ncep....000_climo.shtml

Edit: So, 1951-2 is still a weak Nino. Also, 1952-3, 1953-4, 1958-9, and 2006-7 are not weak Ninos as far as I'm concerned.

[usedtobe]

A real nice discussion of the impact of El Nino on winters by HM

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/09/why-are-winter-outlooks-for-el-nino-so.html

[tacoman25]

I still use the old table for past ENSO events:

http://www.cpc.ncep....000_climo.shtml

Edit: So, 1951-2 is still a weak Nino. Also, 1952-3, 1953-4, 1958-9, and 2006-7 are not weak Ninos as far as I'm concerned.

Eh, but does it really matter much if an event is classified +neutral/almost Nino or official weak Nino?

[GaWx]

Eh, but does it really matter much if an event is classified +neutral/almost Nino or official weak Nino?

When doing analyses, I like to draw the lines and be consistent. I've been analyzing the various ENSO phases for nearly ten years. I'm not about to change the classification of these 1950's and other winters just because NOAA decided to change their methodology. Some of these anomaly adjustments were 0.4 C, not a trivial amount.

[tacoman25]

When doing analyses, I like to draw the lines and be consistent. I've been analyzing the various ENSO phases for nearly ten years. I'm not about to change the classification of these 1950's and other winters just because NOAA decided to change their methodology. Some of these anomaly adjustments were 0.4 C, not a trivial amount.

I was wondering about that. What was the reasoning given for the adjustments?

[wxmx]

Not certain yet, but it's looking increasingly probable that there won't be an El Niño for the cold season. Latest CFS shows that we are already past peak, short term low level winds look mostly easterly, and the MJO currently crossing the Pacific looks very damped, and will only rise in the eastern part of the basin, and finally, the OHC temps are lowering significantly.

[easternsnowman]

Not certain yet, but it's looking increasingly probable that there won't be an El Niño for the cold season. Latest CFS shows that we are already past peak, short term low level winds look mostly easterly, and the MJO currently crossing the Pacific looks very damped, and will only rise in the eastern part of the basin, and finally, the OHC temps are lowering significantly.

It may mean that the first part of the winter may end up being the coldest and snowiest.

[CoastalWx]

Not certain yet, but it's looking increasingly probable that there won't be an El Niño for the cold season. Latest CFS shows that we are already past peak, short term low level winds look mostly easterly, and the MJO currently crossing the Pacific looks very damped, and will only rise in the eastern part of the basin, and finally, the OHC temps are lowering significantly.

Yeah those central regions are not doing well at all. Just a pocket near region 4 and the eastern regions. We'll see if the the wave can maybe move east instead of just emerging there, but not sure about that. We could use a WWB.

Region 4 looks ok though, I don't mind seeing that.

[GaWx]

I was wondering about that. What was the reasoning given for the adjustments?

They changed the base (normals):

"Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño-3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.

There will be multiple centered 30-year base periods that will be used to define the Oceanic Niño index (as a departure from average or “anomaly”). These 30-year base periods will be used to calculate the anomalies for successive 5-year periods in the historical record:..."

"So, ONI values during 1950-1955 will be based on the 1936-1965 base period, ONI values during 1956-1960 will be based on the 1941-1970 base period, and so on and so forth.

In real-time operations, the past 30-year base period (e.g. 1981-2010) will continue to be used to compute the departure from average."

[tacoman25]

They changed the base (normals):

"Due to a significant warming trend in the Niño-3.4 region since 1950, El Niño and La Niña episodes that are defined by a single fixed 30-year base period (e.g. 1971-2000) are increasingly incorporating longer-term trends that do not reflect interannual ENSO variability. In order to remove this warming trend, CPC is adopting a new strategy to update the base period.

There will be multiple centered 30-year base periods that will be used to define the Oceanic Niño index (as a departure from average or “anomaly”). These 30-year base periods will be used to calculate the anomalies for successive 5-year periods in the historical record:..."

"So, ONI values during 1950-1955 will be based on the 1936-1965 base period, ONI values during 1956-1960 will be based on the 1941-1970 base period, and so on and so forth.

In real-time operations, the past 30-year base period (e.g. 1981-2010) will continue to be used to compute the departure from average."

Cool, thanks.

I actually think that method makes a lot of sense.

[uncle W]

I wonder if the MEI is wrong also...It had the largest drop for a developing el nino in history...

lastest number is +0.271....down from +0.579 last reading and +1.139 from the previous period....El Nino is in trouble or just delayed?...

[skierinvermont]

Cool, thanks.

I actually think that method makes a lot of sense.

I think so too but 30 years is a bit short. It's better than the old method. 40 or 50 years could be better but that has other problems too like if global warming accelerates or jumps up in the last 20 years it would lead to a warmer baseline than appropriate. As long as the warming is linear you are ok, but it rarely is. There's really no way of knowing what normal/neutral is exactly for any year. But the climate is shifting so you have to account for that somehow or eventually the ONI will be overwhelmingly positive.

[The_Global_Warmer]

lastest number is +0.271....down from +0.579 last reading and +1.139 from the previous period....El Nino is in trouble or just delayed?...

I dunno, but it's def accurate. It' cooled off a lot.

[wxmx]

29AUG2012  20.3 -0.2  25.6  0.7  27.7  0.9  29.1  0.5
05SEP2012  20.7  0.3  25.5  0.6  27.5  0.8  29.2  0.5
12SEP2012  20.9  0.5  25.3  0.4  27.3  0.5  29.1  0.4
19SEP2012  21.0  0.5  25.2  0.3  27.0  0.3  29.0  0.4
26SEP2012  21.0  0.5  25.1  0.2  26.9  0.2  29.1  0.4
03OCT2012  20.5 -0.1  24.8 -0.1  26.8  0.1  29.0  0.3

New drop, but will probably rebound a bit for next update, but some strong easterlies near the dateline are starting right now, so the area that has warmed the most in this last week will probably go down once more. Overall, it will stay steady around +0.2 in ENSO 3.4 next couple of weeks.

[tacoman25]

29AUG2012 20.3 -0.2 25.6 0.7 27.7 0.9 29.1 0.5
05SEP2012 20.7 0.3 25.5 0.6 27.5 0.8 29.2 0.5
12SEP2012 20.9 0.5 25.3 0.4 27.3 0.5 29.1 0.4
19SEP2012 21.0 0.5 25.2 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.4
26SEP2012 21.0 0.5 25.1 0.2 26.9 0.2 29.1 0.4
03OCT2012 20.5 -0.1 24.8 -0.1 26.8 0.1 29.0 0.3

New drop, but will probably rebound a bit for next update, but some strong easterlies near the dateline are starting right now, so the area that has warmed the most in this last week will probably go down once more. Overall, it will stay steady around +0.2 in ENSO 3.4 next couple of weeks.

Very unlikely we will see an actual Nino at this point. Positive neutral between +.2 to .5 looking most likely for this winter, based on previous years.

[JBG]

Very unlikely we will see an actual Nino at this point. Positive neutral between +.2 to .5 looking most likely for this winter, based on previous years.

My instinct too.

I'm a historian and I think it's "back to the 50's".

[GaWx]

1) The chances of not getting an official Nino this fall/winter (no getting 5 trimonths (corrected data) in a row of +0.5+) has increased in recent weeks after a weak Nino had been looking highly likely to me. Based on the weekly patterns of 1991 and 1994, I'm not yet giving up on weeklies getting back into weak Nino territory. Also, the weak Nino of 1939-40, which followed a weak Nina, did have a cooling in Oct. in region 3.4. Oct. was the coolest month since June as the anom. dropped to near or below +0.3. However, those autumns had solid -SOI months. Admittedly, I still see no solidly -SOI period at least til 10/22 per the latest Euro. That admittedly has me concerned. Then again, 1904-5, which was a weak Nino that had followed a Nina, had small +SOI's in Aug., Sep, and Oct. after moderate -SOI's in June and July. These +SOI months didn't stop that Nino from developing. Then Nov. came in with a strong

-SOI. 1968-9 was another weak Nino that followed a Nina. It didn't have a solidly -SOI month until 1/1969! Finally, the 1986-7 moderate Nino had a +6.6 SOI in Oct.

Bottom line: despite the recent 3.4 cooling, no good string of -SOI's, and no solid string of -SOI's at least until 10/22, I'm not at all giving up on weak Nino anom.'s returning in 3.4.

2) Here is a link to animation over the last two weeks of SST anom.'s:

http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html

It looks to me like the PDO has been rising quite a bit. I assume this is due to the recent -EPO. It looks to me like the PDO may now be near or above -1. Then again, that NOAA PDO table had a further drop in Sep. vs. Aug. to -2.82. So, what do I know? We'll have to see what happens with the Oct. readings.

[Ji]

winter is over

[easternsnowman]

winter is over

Yes it ended last march but it will return again in a couple of months......lol!