GaWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Folks, Per the 0Z 6/19 GFS and Euro, the progged SOI is in the -50's for 6/25, which is a solid sign of an oncoming El Nino. This would be the most negative daily SOI since 2/6/2010. This very negative SOI prog is largely due to very high Darwin pressures. The progged Darwin SLP for 6/25 is for just over 1017 mb. Folks, The 6/24 SOI plunged all of the way to -41 today from -9 yesterday. Let's see if it gets to the -50's for 6/25 as the model consensus had suggested on 6/19. http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Gawx, check out the current pressure at Darwin and Tahiti! 1018+ at Darwin and 1009 in Tahiti. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/world/oceania/french-polynesia/tahiti http://www.weatherzone.com.au/nt/darwin-daly/darwin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Gawx, check out the current pressure at Darwin and Tahiti! 1018+ at Darwin and 1009 in Tahiti. http://www.weatherzo...olynesia/tahiti http://www.weatherzo...win-daly/darwin Thanks. Yep, it looks like it will make it well into the -50's tomorrow. Based on the latest readings, I'm estimating that the 24 hour averaged SLP will be very close to 1017 mb at Darwin and 1010-1010.5 mb at Tahiti for tomorrow. So, the SOI would be ~-54 to -58. Let's see what actually happens. Exciting times in the SOI world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 the week ending June 20 is the first week since the week ending 5/12/10 where neither ENSO regions 3.4 &/or 4 were <0 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for come on NINO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Soi was -49.3 fro today, didn't get to -50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 June Plume: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asthut Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Anyone have a link or any information on ENSO/SOI verification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Folks, The just released weekly graph has Nino 3.4 at +0.6 C, a rather sharp rise from +0.1 C three weeks earlier. This along with the predominantly -SOI and rising OHC, means there is a pretty good shot at JJA being the first trimonth to be +0.5+ C, which would likely turn out to be the start of an offiicial El Nino. Five trimonthly averages in a row of +0.5 C Nino 3.4 anomaly or warmer is the minimum for El Nino to be officially declared. Therefore, it can't be officially declared until well after it starts in retrospect. Based on the recent pretty sharp SST rises in 3.4 (now at +0.6 C) along with the persistent solid -SOI (also OHC anomalies have risen further in June vs. May), I'm educatedly guessing that JJA will, in retrospect be the start, trimonthlywise, of an official El Nino. If that turns out to be the case, it technically couldn't actually be declared until after OND is determined (at the end of the 5th trimonth), which would be ~1/1/13. Assuming that occurs, the Nino would have started in retrospect in JJA or about now. In other words, we'd in retrospect now be at about the start of El Nino assuming the +0.5+ 3.4 SST's end up persisting. In reality, we'd pretty much know with a lot of confidence well before OND. There's no sense forecastingwise in waiting until 1/1/13. We might as well now assume we're likely at about the start of El Nino, especially considering what the ENSO models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kylemacr Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 From an atmospheric convective standpoint, the CFS really wants active convection to begin any day now just east of the dateline. This would be consistent with a "modoki" or CPAC El Nino. Once it begins the active convection, it has no intention of getting rid of it. Click on low pass to see the ENSO-related prediction. You can also see 3 Kelvin waves in a row which probably set the stage for the onset of active convection through multiple westerly wind bursts. The KWs are even strong enough to be visible without the filter overlayed. http://www.atmos.alb....php?lat=75S75N I'm still "getting to know" the CFS, so I have no idea how good of a grasp it has on these things. That said, from a physical standpoint, it looks promising. The attached picture shows zonal wind anomalies (positive ~= westerly wind burst) and the right panel shows total SSTs. You can see the warm water, which is usually in the CPAC moving east a bit along with the WWBs which push it along. I'd bet on a "full fledged" El Nino forming, whatever that actually means... (I don't want to imply that the WWBs are the sole cause of the warm water moving eastward, but they line up well and they definitely don't hurt the cause. That said, there were probably some oceanic waves going through as well, which I haven't bothered to look for.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Related to the previous post (from kylemacr), here is an infrared satellite pic showing the equatorial regions near the dateline. To help get bearings, that easternmost point of Australia is at 153 deg, E. So, the dateline is the third vertical line to the right of that. The equator is the 2nd horizontal line going down from the top. Look at all of that convection just left of the dateline and north of the equator, a sign of -OLR/increased SST's and building El Nino. Also, note a decent amount centered near 5S near and a little east of the dateline. Now, here is a graph showing how negative (blue) the dateline centered OLR has gotten in recent days, a sign of oncoming El Nino (note that blues started to dominate at about this time in 2009, the prior El Nino): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Did someone say 'Modoki El Nino"? Only ask because I recall an article a central centered El Nino did not surpress Atlantic TC activity as much as a standard warm ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kylemacr Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Did someone say 'Modoki El Nino"? Only ask because I recall an article a central centered El Nino did not surpress Atlantic TC activity as much as a standard warm ENSO. The entire Walker Circulation is shifted west when there's a Modoki El Nino versus a canonical one. However, it is not uncommon for anomalous warmth and convection to develop in the CPAC first and then move eastward as the El Nino strengthens. The CFS does not have that happening within the next 90 days, but I don't know how good its ocean model is. It might not be capable of doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 El Niño is almost a given, but it doesn't look like it will overwhelm the pattern while developing (almost never does, unless it's a high end one), it'll probably be more of a two steps forward and 1 backward...in the short term, it looks like the step backward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Just quickly viewed some TAO Hovmoellers of SST and zonal wind from January through June for a few recent El Nino onset years. 2009 seems to be the best match in terms of maximum SST location and easternmost extent of westerly winds. Whenever the next atmospheric Kelvin wave/MJO convective event arrives, the trade winds should be weaker due to the reduced zonal SST gradient, and the westerly phase should have an easier time advecting warm water eastward. Edit to briefly discuss upper ocean current data obtained from the OSCAR satellite-derived current site: Zonal current near the better zonal SST gradient (near 170E-Dateline) is pretty weak ATTM. Zonal current is stronger near 150W, but the zonal SST gradient is fairly weak there. Bottom line: based on advection, would expect slow warming to continue, but nothing drastic over the next few weeks (based on next month's large-scale tropical convection forecast [http://www.atmos.alb..._7.5N/2012.png]). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 the mei May/June index will be out in a few days...1957's mei is some what similar to this year... year.....Dec/Jan.....April/May index...May/June 1957..........-0.948..........+0.908..........+0.778 1965..........-0.525..........+0.535..........+0.951 1972..........-0.593..........+0.487..........+1.198 1997..........-0.487..........+1.119..........+2.308 2012..........-1.046..........+0.706..........+??? There has been a significant rise in the mei index since January...1957 cooled a bit in May/June...1965 continued to rise...1972 rose sharply along with 1997...2012 might have a cooler May/June reading...TWT... http://www.esrl.noaa.../mei/table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Interesting http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/07/west-based-el-nino-becoming-more.html West based El nino becoming more likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Interesting http://theweathercen...oming-more.html West based El nino becoming more likely? For the MA / NE the very early signs point to a more promising winter for 2012 - 2013. Would be happy for an average winter after last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 For the MA / NE the very early signs point to a more promising winter for 2012 - 2013. Would be happy for an average winter after last year. Yes DC might get 3" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 For the MA / NE the very early signs point to a more promising winter for 2012 - 2013. Would be happy for an average winter after last year. I'm pretty sure this winter will be better than last winter. I only had 4 inches of snow last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Looking at the Euro this morning, there are no strong negative SOI's over th enext 10+ days and there may be at least several positives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 AMJ oni index was -0.1...On par with 1986's developing el nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 AMJ oni index was -0.1...On par with 1986's developing el nino... And what was the following Winter like? 'Cause I believe I heard that the 80's were an absolutely terrible decade for wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 2006 looks like a better match to me; assuming we go into an El Nino. 1976 is a decent match as well, and 1996 might be OK if we don't develop a Nino although its closer to a Nina than we will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 And what was the following Winter like? 'Cause I believe I heard that the 80's were an absolutely terrible decade for wintry weather. I believe the Washington DC area had three KU storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Per today's 0Z Euro, it looks like there will, indeed, be some solid positives for later this week...quite possibly all the way up into the +20's. Perhaps this will help lead to a halt in the Nino 3.4 warming or, perhaps, even a temporary cooling within a couple of weeks. This is the kind of thing that helps a weak Nino's chances vs. a stronger Nino. There are no big negatives in sight (say for next 12 or so days at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 the mei May/June index will be out in a few days...1957's mei is some what similar to this year... year.....Dec/Jan.....April/May index...May/June 1957..........-0.948..........+0.908..........+0.778 1965..........-0.525..........+0.535..........+0.951 1972..........-0.593..........+0.487..........+1.198 1997..........-0.487..........+1.119..........+2.308 2012..........-1.046..........+0.706..........+0.903 There has been a significant rise in the mei index since January...1957 cooled a bit in May/June...1965 continued to rise...1972 rose sharply along with 1997...2012 might have a cooler May/June reading...TWT... http://www.esrl.noaa.../mei/table.html May/June index came in at +0.903... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Per today's 0Z Euro, it looks like there will, indeed, be some solid positives for later this week...quite possibly all the way up into the +20's. Perhaps this will help lead to a halt in the Nino 3.4 warming or, perhaps, even a temporary cooling within a couple of weeks. This is the kind of thing that helps a weak Nino's chances vs. a stronger Nino. There are no big negatives in sight (say for next 12 or so days at least). Folks, It still looks like the +20's are coming. Actually, I'm estimating +20's the next two days. Afterward, it should slowly drop, but not get negative until all the way around 7/21. By that time, the SOI MTD could easily average near +6 before falling back to negatives. That means July as a whole will have a decent shot at a positive SOI. In the bigger picture, that means that there will likely be no sig. Niño 3.4 warming and that it could even cool back some for a few weeks. That would mean an increased chance for a fall/winter WEAK Nino peak vs. MODERATE vs. how it may have appeared, say, two or so weeks ago. Also, there is a partial positive correlation between July-Aug SOI and peak season MDR Atlantic tropical activity. So, perhaps this will help reawaken the Atlantic tropics by early August. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 El Niño is almost a given, but it doesn't look like it will overwhelm the pattern while developing (almost never does, unless it's a high end one), it'll probably be more of a two steps forward and 1 backward...in the short term, it looks like the step backward. Step backward was rather large. El Niño development has lost some of it's punch, and it seems that in the short term there will be little change in the SSTAs along most ENSO regions...maybe some slow warming ahead, with no sight of any significant WWBs next 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 doesnt look like we will have a hurricane killing el nino. pacific looks similar to 2005, maybe less warm than 2005. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2005/anomnight.7.12.2005.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Latest NINO 3.4 weekly SST anomaly on the AUS site is +0.54. I believe last week's value was +0.68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.